Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell</li>
<li>Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears</li>
<li>The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action</li>
</ul>


Fixed Income markets have stabilised after the Fed including the relentless rise in short end (2Y) yields. Short term Bonds are not a sell
Equity markets have also stabilised with positive short term price action while there are too many bears
The USD has stabilised and showing early signs of a slip (ex USDJPY). Watch the price action


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a <em>potential</em> signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, <em>not</em> on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>In line with my view, the US dollar remains strong, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia providing additional safe-haven bids and putting pressure on EM currencies. </li>
<li>Among EM currencies, the worst hit are Central European currencies as the war has created headwinds to growth in the region especially due to the spike in energy prices.</li>
<li>Authorities in the eurozone and Central Europe have taken steps to mitigate the impact on their economies but the proximity to the war means that some risk premium will remain.</li>
</ul>


In line with my view, the US dollar remains strong, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia providing additional safe-haven bids and putting pressure on EM currencies. 
Among EM currencies, the worst hit are Central European currencies as the war has created headwinds to growth in the region especially due to the spike in energy prices.
Authorities in the eurozone and Central Europe have taken steps to mitigate the impact on their economies but the proximity to the war means that some risk premium will remain.


In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 35 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 25 of which 18 were in the money.
I also update my views on the open trade recommendations and go over the rationale behind those that I closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

<ul>
<li>With Russia invading Ukraine, my view of the dollar remaining strong and possibly appreciating further in the near term is playing out.</li>
<li>EM currencies have weathered the spillover from Russia and dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has increased.</li>
<li>Beyond the near term, the outlook for the dollar and EM currencies has become hazy given the uncertainty emanating from Russia's invasion and the fallout of the sanctions.</li>
</ul>


With Russia invading Ukraine, my view of the dollar remaining strong and possibly appreciating further in the near term is playing out.
EM currencies have weathered the spillover from Russia and dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has increased.
Beyond the near term, the outlook for the dollar and EM currencies has become hazy given the uncertainty emanating from Russia's invasion and the fallout of the sanctions.


Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

The MAD Report - Cross Market Analysis

A weekly report looking at price action across major markets. In the short term both a stock market and a bond market squeeze seem possible in the...

Shyam Devani

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion

Russia's invasion has given another leg up to the US dollar, weighing on EM currencies, particularly in Central Europe despite the steps they have...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 25 of the 35 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies

EM currencies have weathered the dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)