Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.</li>
<li>Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.</li>
</ul>


The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.
Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.


Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>In an environment marked by uncertainty with regards to the dollar's next move, EM currencies have been stable and LatAm currencies have outperformed Asia and CEEMEA so far this year.</li>
<li>The strong start for LatAm currencies is partly to make up for their underperformance last year and partly supported by their high carry relative to other currencies.</li>
<li>If risk aversion remains low, this trend should persist but given the uncertainty, it is best to be selective and target relative-value trades to take advantage of differences across countries.</li>
</ul>


In an environment marked by uncertainty with regards to the dollar's next move, EM currencies have been stable and LatAm currencies have outperformed Asia and CEEMEA so far this year.
The strong start for LatAm currencies is partly to make up for their underperformance last year and partly supported by their high carry relative to other currencies.
If risk aversion remains low, this trend should persist but given the uncertainty, it is best to be selective and target relative-value trades to take advantage of differences across countries.


Will Latin American Currencies Continue to Outperform Against Asia and CEEMEA?

<ul>
<li>Since the end of last year, the US dollar has persisted around its strongest level in two years on the back of rising US Treasury yields and risk aversion.</li>
<li>I expect the dollar to remain strong at least until the US rates volatility drops meaningfully and the headwinds to US equities, including geopolitical and domestic growth concerns, fade.</li>
<li>Once these risks pass, the dollar – which is expensive in valuation terms – should depreciate as the year progresses, creating a supportive environment for EM currencies.</li>
</ul>


Since the end of last year, the US dollar has persisted around its strongest level in two years on the back of rising US Treasury yields and risk aversion.
I expect the dollar to remain strong at least until the US rates volatility drops meaningfully and the headwinds to US equities, including geopolitical and domestic growth concerns, fade.
Once these risks pass, the dollar – which is expensive in valuation terms – should depreciate as the year progresses, creating a supportive environment for EM currencies.


The US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.</li>
<li>Divisions exist between the Euro bottoming and risk FX (AUD and ZAR) with latent USD bull support. Q2 equity risk off a key driver for risk FX.</li>
<li>US 10yr close to our 1.95% PT, above would see an unsustainable push above 2% that would align with a USD topping process.</li>
</ul>


DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.
Divisions exist between the Euro bottoming and risk FX (AUD and ZAR) with latent USD bull support. Q2 equity risk off a key driver for risk FX.
US 10yr close to our 1.95% PT, above would see an unsustainable push above 2% that would align with a USD topping process.


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Commodity prices remain in a secular bull market, and now even gold is joining the rally. This is bullish for global metals/mining stocks (precious...

Vermilion Research

Will Latin American Currencies Continue to Outperform Against Asia and CEEMEA?

If risk aversion remains low, LatAm currencies should continue to outperform but given the uncertainty, it is best to target relative-value trades...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

The US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

Although the dollar should remain strong in the near term at least until we get clarity on the Fed path, it should depreciate for the remainder of...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

Dollar Top Leading a Yield Peak

DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)