Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 14 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (10 Nov)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and short Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) targets an 8% return. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and short Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) targets an 8% return. 

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN): Pair Trade in Indian Banks Targeting 8%

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (3 Nov)

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We cut our losses on our long position on Union Bank of India (UBI), whilst sticking with our core conviction buy name Bank of Baroda</li>
<li>UBI has a slightly higher structural credit risk profile than Baroda, in our view, with UBI’s slightly bigger share of exposure to agriculture and MSME credit</li>
<li>Baroda is now our sole buy in Indian banks; it has lesser credit quality headwinds than UBI for similar valuations, whilst having potential to expand returns over the medium term</li>
</ul>


We cut our losses on our long position on Union Bank of India (UBI), whilst sticking with our core conviction buy name Bank of Baroda
UBI has a slightly higher structural credit risk profile than Baroda, in our view, with UBI’s slightly bigger share of exposure to agriculture and MSME credit
Baroda is now our sole buy in Indian banks; it has lesser credit quality headwinds than UBI for similar valuations, whilst having potential to expand returns over the medium term


Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

<ul>
<li>We take profits on our Canara Bank buy recommendation, due to adverse credit quality trends, and we stick with our two high conviction buy names UBI and Bank of Baroda</li>
<li>UBI ranks top in our proprietary scorecard, replacing Canara Bank; UBI has high earnings and dividend yields; it ranks highly on NPL coverage and it has a well-controlled write-off ratio</li>
<li>Baroda remains our core value pick; it has attractive valuations and potential to expand returns which we expect to emerge over the medium term, especially given its control of write-offs</li>
</ul>


We take profits on our Canara Bank buy recommendation, due to adverse credit quality trends, and we stick with our two high conviction buy names UBI and Bank of Baroda
UBI ranks top in our proprietary scorecard, replacing Canara Bank; UBI has high earnings and dividend yields; it ranks highly on NPL coverage and it has a well-controlled write-off ratio
Baroda remains our core value pick; it has attractive valuations and potential to expand returns which we expect to emerge over the medium term, especially given its control of write-offs


Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

India

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

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Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (10 Nov)

Statistical methodology identifies 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN): Pair Trade in Indian Banks Targeting 8%

Pair trade with an 8% target-return amid significant deviation of the price-ratio between HDFC Bank and Union Bank of India. Ideal for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (3 Nov)

Statistical methodology identifies ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

We cut our losses on the Union Bank of India long position, sticking with our sole buy in Indian banks, Bank of Baroda, for its lower structural...

Victor Galliano

Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (10 Nov)

​Statistical methodology identifies 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN): Pair Trade in Indian Banks Targeting 8%

Pair trade with an 8% target-return amid significant deviation of the price-ratio between HDFC Bank and Union Bank of India. Ideal for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (3 Nov)

​Statistical methodology identifies ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

​We cut our losses on the Union Bank of India long position, sticking with our sole buy in Indian banks, Bank of Baroda, for its lower structural...

Victor Galliano

Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

​We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...

Victor Galliano

Statistical methodology identifies 15 pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Statistical methodology identifies ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

We cut our losses on the Union Bank of India long position, sticking with our sole buy in Indian banks, Bank of Baroda, for its lower structural...

We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...