India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian government is actively considering a new wave of PSB consolidation, headlined by a potential merger of Union Bank of India and Bank of India, alongside selective privatisation.</li>
<li>This signals a strategic shift from post-NPA crisis management to building globally competitive banks, which could fundamentally alter the sector's competitive landscape and credit capacity.</li>
<li>With PSBs on their strongest footing in a decade, this consolidation round has a higher chance of success, forcing investors to re-evaluate the long-term structure of Indian banking.</li>
</ul>


The Indian government is actively considering a new wave of PSB consolidation, headlined by a potential merger of Union Bank of India and Bank of India, alongside selective privatisation.
This signals a strategic shift from post-NPA crisis management to building globally competitive banks, which could fundamentally alter the sector's competitive landscape and credit capacity.
With PSBs on their strongest footing in a decade, this consolidation round has a higher chance of success, forcing investors to re-evaluate the long-term structure of Indian banking.


Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India's Push for Global-Scale Banks

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (3 Nov)

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We cut our losses on our long position on Union Bank of India (UBI), whilst sticking with our core conviction buy name Bank of Baroda</li>
<li>UBI has a slightly higher structural credit risk profile than Baroda, in our view, with UBI’s slightly bigger share of exposure to agriculture and MSME credit</li>
<li>Baroda is now our sole buy in Indian banks; it has lesser credit quality headwinds than UBI for similar valuations, whilst having potential to expand returns over the medium term</li>
</ul>


We cut our losses on our long position on Union Bank of India (UBI), whilst sticking with our core conviction buy name Bank of Baroda
UBI has a slightly higher structural credit risk profile than Baroda, in our view, with UBI’s slightly bigger share of exposure to agriculture and MSME credit
Baroda is now our sole buy in Indian banks; it has lesser credit quality headwinds than UBI for similar valuations, whilst having potential to expand returns over the medium term


Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

<ul>
<li>We take profits on our Canara Bank buy recommendation, due to adverse credit quality trends, and we stick with our two high conviction buy names UBI and Bank of Baroda</li>
<li>UBI ranks top in our proprietary scorecard, replacing Canara Bank; UBI has high earnings and dividend yields; it ranks highly on NPL coverage and it has a well-controlled write-off ratio</li>
<li>Baroda remains our core value pick; it has attractive valuations and potential to expand returns which we expect to emerge over the medium term, especially given its control of write-offs</li>
</ul>


We take profits on our Canara Bank buy recommendation, due to adverse credit quality trends, and we stick with our two high conviction buy names UBI and Bank of Baroda
UBI ranks top in our proprietary scorecard, replacing Canara Bank; UBI has high earnings and dividend yields; it ranks highly on NPL coverage and it has a well-controlled write-off ratio
Baroda remains our core value pick; it has attractive valuations and potential to expand returns which we expect to emerge over the medium term, especially given its control of write-offs


Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

India

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)

Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India's Push for Global-Scale Banks

Indian government mulls PSB consolidation with potential Union Bank of India and Bank of India merger, signaling shift to building globally...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (3 Nov)

Statistical methodology identifies ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

We cut our losses on the Union Bank of India long position, sticking with our sole buy in Indian banks, Bank of Baroda, for its lower structural...

Victor Galliano

Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thematic Report on PSB Consolidation 2.0: UBI-BoI Merger Signals India's Push for Global-Scale Banks

​Indian government mulls PSB consolidation with potential Union Bank of India and Bank of India merger, signaling shift to building globally...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (3 Nov)

​Statistical methodology identifies ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Exiting the Long Position “pain Trade” on Union Bank of India; Stick with Long Position on Baroda

​We cut our losses on the Union Bank of India long position, sticking with our sole buy in Indian banks, Bank of Baroda, for its lower structural...

Victor Galliano

Indian Banks: Stick with Baroda and UBI on the Buy List, Downgrading Canara

​We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Indian government mulls PSB consolidation with potential Union Bank of India and Bank of India merger, signaling shift to building globally...

Statistical methodology identifies ten pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

We cut our losses on the Union Bank of India long position, sticking with our sole buy in Indian banks, Bank of Baroda, for its lower structural...

We downgrade Canara Bank to neutral due to credit quality concerns, focusing on our conviction buys UBI and Bank of Baroda with their attractive...