Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive </li>
<li>The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%</li>
<li>Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans</li>
</ul>


Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive 
The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%
Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans


Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia, Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Evolve Capital Research

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Equity Bottom-Up

Goodwill Entertainment Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodwill-entertainment-holding-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44296:1" rel="noopener">Goodwill Entertainment Holding (GWEH SP)</a> is a multi-entertainment concept operator, comprising a network of family friendly karaoke facilities with F&amp;B concepts, performance halls and dance clubs.</li>
<li>It operates under the brand names HaveFun Family Karaoke, FATEbyhavefun and HaveFun Live Show.</li>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.</li>
</ul>



Goodwill Entertainment Holding (GWEH SP) is a multi-entertainment concept operator, comprising a network of family friendly karaoke facilities with F&amp;B concepts, performance halls and dance clubs.
It operates under the brand names HaveFun Family Karaoke, FATEbyhavefun and HaveFun Live Show.
We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.


Goodwill Entertainment Holding - FY24 Earnings Update - Broadening Reach Within F&B and Nightlife

<ul>
<li>There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection</li>
<li>This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener"></a>ABC and BoCom.</li>
<li>Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs </li>
</ul>


There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection
This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs 


China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

<ul>
<li>The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once</li>
<li>Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital</li>
<li>We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China</li>
</ul>


The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China


Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Econ Healthcare Asia Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/econ-healthcare-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33015:1" rel="noopener">Econ Healthcare Asia Ltd (ECON SP)</a> received a privatization offer from TPG Capital on 14th Feb 25. </li>
<li>Per the announcement, TPG is offering S$0.33 per share in cash, representing a 20% premium over the last undisturbed price of S$0.275 / share on 14th Jan 25. </li>
<li>While the deal is hardly a fantastic one, we would still recommend that minority shareholders accept the deal and redeploy their funds.</li>
</ul>



Econ Healthcare Asia Ltd (ECON SP) received a privatization offer from TPG Capital on 14th Feb 25. 
Per the announcement, TPG is offering S$0.33 per share in cash, representing a 20% premium over the last undisturbed price of S$0.275 / share on 14th Jan 25. 
While the deal is hardly a fantastic one, we would still recommend that minority shareholders accept the deal and redeploy their funds.


Econ Healthcare (Asia) - Not the Best but Still an Exit Opportunity

Singapore

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

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UOB (UOB SP)

Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

Singapore's banks new monthly data shows worsening LDR as deposit growth continues to outpace loan growth. There is risk to net interest income...

Daniel Tabbush

Goodwill Entertainment Holding - FY24 Earnings Update - Broadening Reach Within F&B and Nightlife

We maintain our BUY rating on GEH with a TP of S$0.23, pegged to 4.6x FY25E EV/EBITDA, representing an upside of approximately 42.9%.

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore's banks are all giving back lots of capital to shareholders. This may appear to be good for yield, but it suggests to us that lending...

Daniel Tabbush

Econ Healthcare (Asia) - Not the Best but Still an Exit Opportunity

Econ Healthcare Asia Ltd received a privatization offer from TPG Capital on 14th Feb 25. While the deal is hardly fantastic , we would still...

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

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