Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report removed 0.05-0.06 pct.</li><li>points from overall MoM price pressures in May compared to the report in April, where the same category rose 1.5% on the month.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report removed 0.05-0.06 pct.points from overall MoM price pressures in May compared to the report in April, where the same category rose 1.5% on the month.

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

<ul><li>The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected while core came in to the soft side of 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.</li><li>Our anticipation of rising goods-flation didn’t play out fully, and while shelter re-accelerated as we forecasted, core services disinflated heavily in May due to auto insurance costs declining.</li><li>The main culprit behind the dovish CPI report was the sudden drop in Motor Vehicle Insurance (chart 2.b), which has so far been printing at trend MoM levels around 1-1.5%, lifting headline inflation by 0.03-0.05% consecutively.</li></ul>

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected while core came in to the soft side of 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.Our anticipation of rising goods-flation didn’t play out fully, and while shelter re-accelerated as we forecasted, core services disinflated heavily in May due to auto insurance costs declining.The main culprit behind the dovish CPI report was the sudden drop in Motor Vehicle Insurance (chart 2.b), which has so far been printing at trend MoM levels around 1-1.5%, lifting headline inflation by 0.03-0.05% consecutively.

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.</li>
<li>False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.</li>
<li>IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.


Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a windy Copenhagen!We’ve been yammering about the copper buildup on Chinese exchanges for months.</li><li>Was it a strategic decision to hoard copper reserves?</li><li>Were the Chinese waiting to offload this copper until the CNY devalued, or a result of the physical demand in the Chinese economy nosedived off a cliff?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a windy Copenhagen!We’ve been yammering about the copper buildup on Chinese exchanges for months.Was it a strategic decision to hoard copper reserves?Were the Chinese waiting to offload this copper until the CNY devalued, or a result of the physical demand in the Chinese economy nosedived off a cliff?

Steno Signals #103: A blood-bath in metals in July!?

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet weekly overview of key events, our expectations and how we position for them.</li><li>On ISM Manufacturing (Monday). Our forecast at Steno Research is 50.2 for the ISM Manufacturing Index, slightly above the consensus of 49.9.</li><li>April’s activity was notably weak due to several factors: tax seasonality which withdrew liquidity, a hawkish build-up of expectations ahead of the early May FOMC press conference, and weak international impulses.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet weekly overview of key events, our expectations and how we position for them.On ISM Manufacturing (Monday). Our forecast at Steno Research is 50.2 for the ISM Manufacturing Index, slightly above the consensus of 49.9.April’s activity was notably weak due to several factors: tax seasonality which withdrew liquidity, a hawkish build-up of expectations ahead of the early May FOMC press conference, and weak international impulses.

The Week at A Glance: The comeback of the (growth and inflation) cycle

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report...

Steno Research

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected...

Steno Research

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #103: A blood-bath in metals in July!?

Happy Sunday from a windy Copenhagen!We’ve been yammering about the copper buildup on Chinese exchanges for months. Was it a strategic decision to...

Steno Research

The Week at A Glance: The comeback of the (growth and inflation) cycle

Welcome to our short and sweet weekly overview of key events, our expectations and how we position for them. On ISM Manufacturing (Monday)Our...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The sudden deflation in the Motor Vehicle Insurance component in the CPI report...

Steno Research

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

The CPI report today was admittedly softer than our initial hawkish forecasts, with headline coming in unchanged at 0.0% MoM vs 0.1% expected...

Steno Research

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

​The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #103: A blood-bath in metals in July!?

Happy Sunday from a windy Copenhagen!We’ve been yammering about the copper buildup on Chinese exchanges for months. Was it a strategic decision to...

Steno Research

The Week at A Glance: The comeback of the (growth and inflation) cycle

Welcome to our short and sweet weekly overview of key events, our expectations and how we position for them. On ISM Manufacturing (Monday)Our...

Steno Research

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...