Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022</li>
<li>Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.</li>
<li>Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight


Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Key data releases in the upcoming week include PMI data from China, CPI data from Tokyo and Australia, GDP data from India, and Industrial production data from Korea</li><li>US core PCE inflation data forecasted to be 0.252% for April, indicating a possible slowdown in inflation</li><li>Fed expected to delay easing cycle start until September, with recent data showing signs of slowing growth and consumer sector cracks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Key data releases in the upcoming week include PMI data from China, CPI data from Tokyo and Australia, GDP data from India, and Industrial production data from KoreaUS core PCE inflation data forecasted to be 0.252% for April, indicating a possible slowdown in inflationFed expected to delay easing cycle start until September, with recent data showing signs of slowing growth and consumer sector cracksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts offer news and analysis on various topics</li><li>Discussion on FOMC presser and Fed's reaction to inflation and interest rates</li><li>Impact of US economy on global markets and the role of central banks explained by strategist Victor Schwetz</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts offer news and analysis on various topicsDiscussion on FOMC presser and Fed's reaction to inflation and interest ratesImpact of US economy on global markets and the role of central banks explained by strategist Victor SchwetzThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Viktor Shvets on How the Fed Has Become a Prisoner of Its Own Making

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Last week we learned that the so-called “excess savings pool” from the pandemic had vanished into thin air in the US, or rather that personal savings have been running sub-trend long enough to bring savings back to a normalized state.</li><li>This does not mean that US households have run out of savings, it merely means that savings rates are running below trend, which is not out of the ordinary during late-cycle economies.</li><li>We have recreated the study on German numbers and found much less “alarming” trends in German households, which goes to show that the methodology developed by the San Fran Fed ought to be taken with a pinch, if not even a truckload, of salt.</li></ul>

Last week we learned that the so-called “excess savings pool” from the pandemic had vanished into thin air in the US, or rather that personal savings have been running sub-trend long enough to bring savings back to a normalized state.This does not mean that US households have run out of savings, it merely means that savings rates are running below trend, which is not out of the ordinary during late-cycle economies.We have recreated the study on German numbers and found much less “alarming” trends in German households, which goes to show that the methodology developed by the San Fran Fed ought to be taken with a pinch, if not even a truckload, of salt.

Steno Signals #99 – Freddie Mac gearing up to unleash trillions for consumption?

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Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth $IWF; Three May $SPX Upside Gaps Unfilled = Bullish; Expect supports at...

Vermilion Research

Inflation Moderation?

Key economic data releases from China, the US, and Europe are closely monitored for signals on inflation and growth, while the Fed is expected to...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

Viktor Shvets on How the Fed Has Become a Prisoner of Its Own Making

Tracy Alaway and Joe Wiesenthal discuss the recent FOMC presser and its international consequences on the AWblots podcast, highlighting the impact...

Odd Lots

Steno Signals #99 – Freddie Mac gearing up to unleash trillions for consumption?

Last week we learned that the so-called “excess savings pool” from the pandemic had vanished into thin air in the US, or rather that personal...

Steno Research

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