Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our monthly UK CPI watch.</li><li>March has been out of the ordinary in 2023 and 2022, which makes for extremely benign base effects in YoY terms for UK CPI inflation this year.</li><li>We typically see 0.1-0.2% MoM service inflation in March, which is seasonally soft, while also food prices typically soften during the early spring.</li></ul>

Welcome to our monthly UK CPI watch.March has been out of the ordinary in 2023 and 2022, which makes for extremely benign base effects in YoY terms for UK CPI inflation this year.We typically see 0.1-0.2% MoM service inflation in March, which is seasonally soft, while also food prices typically soften during the early spring.

UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming

<ul><li>What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to recover fast after inflation/rate shocks these months as the anticipated lean from central banks remains dovish.</li><li>In this short G3 rates watch, we take a practical stance on the R* concept.</li><li>If an economy can re-accelerate given current rate levels, it seems likely that R* is even higher than thought by many economists including the entire ilk of PhDs at the Federal Reserve.</li></ul>

What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to recover fast after inflation/rate shocks these months as the anticipated lean from central banks remains dovish.In this short G3 rates watch, we take a practical stance on the R* concept.If an economy can re-accelerate given current rate levels, it seems likely that R* is even higher than thought by many economists including the entire ilk of PhDs at the Federal Reserve.

G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.</li><li>The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a short and concise format.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Rates Pricing, Liquidity Turning, Labor Market, Commodities, China.The market went into the year expecting 7 cuts in total from the Fed, which has now been narrowed down to less than two, all while equity markets have continued their drift higher as the economy is doing better than expected paired with benign liquidity conditions.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again.</li><li>In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession narrative by a weakening sentiment in various cyclical gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing.</li><li>Classic recession models are designed to try and use the cyclical momentum to assess the health of the broader economy 6-12 months later but the problem is that the cyclical economy is increasingly irrelevant for the economy.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again.In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession narrative by a weakening sentiment in various cyclical gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing.Classic recession models are designed to try and use the cyclical momentum to assess the health of the broader economy 6-12 months later but the problem is that the cyclical economy is increasingly irrelevant for the economy.

Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming

Welcome to our monthly UK CPI watch. March has been out of the ordinary in 2023 and 2022, which makes for extremely benign base effects in YoY...

Steno Research

G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!

What a week in Fixed Income space! The bloodbath after the hot US CPI report partially continued today, but equities have a tremendous ability to...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we provide 5 of the things we keep an eye out for in global macro in a...

Steno Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again. In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession...

Steno Research

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