Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)</li>
<li>Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."</li>
<li>SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)
Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."
SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The worst case scenario (of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure) has abated for the week ahead. Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries will be fiendishly difficult to implement as IRGC/Basij will resist. </li>
<li>Despite decapitation of Iran's leadership, IRGC/Basij's fight persists, like Iraq's Ba'athists peopling Iraq's Sunni militias 2003-13. Israel has forced Iran's retreat from Syria-Lebanon-Gaza; reformist Azeri-Kurd Pezeshkian could countenance regime change. </li>
<li>Iran's intransigent forces won't capitulate without gaining an end to sanctions. US-Israel will demand a final end to Iran's nuclear-bomb capability. There's many a slip 'twixt cup&amp;lip. Stay cautious. </li>
</ul>


The worst case scenario (of tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure) has abated for the week ahead. Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries will be fiendishly difficult to implement as IRGC/Basij will resist. 
Despite decapitation of Iran's leadership, IRGC/Basij's fight persists, like Iraq's Ba'athists peopling Iraq's Sunni militias 2003-13. Israel has forced Iran's retreat from Syria-Lebanon-Gaza; reformist Azeri-Kurd Pezeshkian could countenance regime change. 
Iran's intransigent forces won't capitulate without gaining an end to sanctions. US-Israel will demand a final end to Iran's nuclear-bomb capability. There's many a slip 'twixt cup&amp;lip. Stay cautious. 


US: Iran War Isn't About to End Despite the Improved Atmospherics from Trump

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.</li>
<li>We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.
We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245


Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Funding pressures have been gradually increasing due to various factors such as a new easing cycle by the Fed, rebuilding of tga, and QT draining liquidity from the system.</li><li>Money funds began extending duration and shifting balances, leading to evidence of funding pressures in September which intensified in October.</li><li>Funding markets are becoming more sensitive to incremental collateral adds and repo markets are operating with more frictions, impacting the effectiveness of SRF operations in redistributing reserves and controlling repo rates.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Funding pressures have been gradually increasing due to various factors such as a new easing cycle by the Fed, rebuilding of tga, and QT draining liquidity from the system.Money funds began extending duration and shifting balances, leading to evidence of funding pressures in September which intensified in October.Funding markets are becoming more sensitive to incremental collateral adds and repo markets are operating with more frictions, impacting the effectiveness of SRF operations in redistributing reserves and controlling repo rates.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

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US: Iran War Isn't About to End Despite the Improved Atmospherics from Trump

Pezeshkian-Trump deal via intermediaries is tough, as IRGC/Basij resistance persists despite Iran's decapitated leadership. US-Israel want demise...

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Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

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JP Morgan experts discuss recent funding pressures, including increasing Fed funds rates, repo market moves, and factors like Fed easing cycle and...

At Any Rate

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