Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>ISM's manufacturing PMI falling to its lowest reading of 2025 in December, and CPI inflation for Nov'25 at 2.7%YoY (well below consensus expectation of 3.1%YoY) validated FOMC's Dec'25 rate cut.  </li>
<li>Trump tariffs have boosted US manufacturing, with industrial growth of 2.5%YoY the strongest in 3 years, and US steel output up 3.2%YoY in Jan-Nov'25 while world output declined 4%YoY.</li>
<li>FOMC's Dec'25 SEP showed lower inflation and higher GDP growth in 2026 (Goldilocks!). With Venezuela supply augmentation lowering oil prices by Mar'26 we expect 50bp of rate cuts in H1/2026.</li>
</ul>


ISM's manufacturing PMI falling to its lowest reading of 2025 in December, and CPI inflation for Nov'25 at 2.7%YoY (well below consensus expectation of 3.1%YoY) validated FOMC's Dec'25 rate cut.  
Trump tariffs have boosted US manufacturing, with industrial growth of 2.5%YoY the strongest in 3 years, and US steel output up 3.2%YoY in Jan-Nov'25 while world output declined 4%YoY.
FOMC's Dec'25 SEP showed lower inflation and higher GDP growth in 2026 (Goldilocks!). With Venezuela supply augmentation lowering oil prices by Mar'26 we expect 50bp of rate cuts in H1/2026.


US: Elements of Goldilocks Support More Rate Cuts in H1 2026 Amid Decent Growth

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

<ul>
<li>The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey highlights the continued expansion of global foreign exchange activity.</li>
<li>The Mexican peso reaffirmed its relevance, ranking among the most actively traded currencies worldwide and consolidating its position as one of the leading currencies within emerging markets.</li>
<li>According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey on foreign exchange markets (April 2025), global FX trading volumes increased by 28% compared with the 2022 survey, reaching an average daily turnover of USD 9.6 trillion.</li>
</ul>


The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey highlights the continued expansion of global foreign exchange activity.
The Mexican peso reaffirmed its relevance, ranking among the most actively traded currencies worldwide and consolidating its position as one of the leading currencies within emerging markets.
According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey on foreign exchange markets (April 2025), global FX trading volumes increased by 28% compared with the 2022 survey, reaching an average daily turnover of USD 9.6 trillion.


HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Strong economic data last week: New home sales above expectations, GDP growth revised up to 3.8%</li><li>Discussion on the accuracy of economic estimates and its impact on investment decisions</li><li>Economic data suggesting fewer Fed cuts, affecting short term stock market sentiment</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong economic data last week: New home sales above expectations, GDP growth revised up to 3.8%Discussion on the accuracy of economic estimates and its impact on investment decisionsEconomic data suggesting fewer Fed cuts, affecting short term stock market sentimentThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk, Crypto, and the "Wrong Number" Revolution | New Barbarians Podcast

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.</li>
<li>Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.</li>
<li>A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.</li>
</ul>


The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.
Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.
A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.


Five Regimes, One Reaction Function-  What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Steepening of the 530s treasury curve globally is at historically high levels, driven by different factors in the US, Europe, and the UK</li><li>US curve steepness is reflective of repricing of additional Fed easing, while Europe's steepening is technical and related to Dutch pension fund transitions</li><li>Market hesitancy to fade the steepness due to ongoing technical flows in Europe and front-end driven steepening in the US, with uncertainty surrounding terminal rates in both regions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Steepening of the 530s treasury curve globally is at historically high levels, driven by different factors in the US, Europe, and the UKUS curve steepness is reflective of repricing of additional Fed easing, while Europe's steepening is technical and related to Dutch pension fund transitionsMarket hesitancy to fade the steepness due to ongoing technical flows in Europe and front-end driven steepening in the US, with uncertainty surrounding terminal rates in both regionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

US: Elements of Goldilocks Support More Rate Cuts in H1 2026 Amid Decent Growth

ISM's manufacturing PMI weakened in Dec'25, validating FOMC rate cut. Trump tariffs boost US manufacturing, FOMC predicts lower inflation and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Actinver Research - Mexican Peso Trading

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey highlights the continued expansion of global foreign exchange activity.

Actinver

Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk, Crypto, and the "Wrong Number" Revolution | New Barbarians Podcast

The importance of accurate economic data for investors and policy makers is highlighted in discussions about strong economic data, revisions in...

William Mann

Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

The dollar traded one macro factor all year with an unchanged sensitivity; though underlying drivers shifted In G10, four currencies traded beyond...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

The steepness in bond curves across the US, Europe, and UK has deepened due to various drivers, making it challenging to fade the steepness in the...

At Any Rate

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US: Elements of Goldilocks Support More Rate Cuts in H1 2026 Amid Decent Growth

​ISM's manufacturing PMI weakened in Dec'25, validating FOMC rate cut. Trump tariffs boost US manufacturing, FOMC predicts lower inflation and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Actinver Research - Mexican Peso Trading

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) triennial survey highlights the continued expansion of global foreign exchange activity.

Actinver

Aaron Brown: Quantitative Risk, Crypto, and the "Wrong Number" Revolution | New Barbarians Podcast

The importance of accurate economic data for investors and policy makers is highlighted in discussions about strong economic data, revisions in...

William Mann

Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

The dollar traded one macro factor all year with an unchanged sensitivity; though underlying drivers shifted In G10, four currencies traded beyond...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Global FX and Rates: Yield curve steepening, payrolls and FX hedge ratios

The steepness in bond curves across the US, Europe, and UK has deepened due to various drivers, making it challenging to fade the steepness in the...

At Any Rate

ISM's manufacturing PMI weakened in Dec'25, validating FOMC rate cut. Trump tariffs boost US manufacturing, FOMC predicts lower inflation and...