Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The iron ore cost curve has risen by 5-10 USD/ton since the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, which has put upward pressure on diesel prices (15%-20% of mining costs).</li>
<li>Chinese blast furnace capacity utilization is now trending towards 90%, leading to mill margins inflecting into positive territory, based on commentary provided by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> in its Q1 results.</li>
<li>Iran's steel/iron ore production (30/~45 million tons respectively) has stalled, and Simandou's ramp-up guidance (10-15 million tons for FY26) is slower than initially anticipated by the market. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore cost curve has risen by 5-10 USD/ton since the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, which has put upward pressure on diesel prices (15%-20% of mining costs).
Chinese blast furnace capacity utilization is now trending towards 90%, leading to mill margins inflecting into positive territory, based on commentary provided by Vale (VALE US) in its Q1 results.
Iran's steel/iron ore production (30/~45 million tons respectively) has stalled, and Simandou's ramp-up guidance (10-15 million tons for FY26) is slower than initially anticipated by the market. 


Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

Commodities Trading - Credit Risk

Alan Chong

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Commodities

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring prices on pollution curbs. This is one commodity that has defied the descending trend of other commodities recently such as Gold, Copper and Crude Oil.  The question is whether iron ore price momentum will continue into the second half of 2018. We track the benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content (which is the industry standard specification assessed by Platts, Metal Bulletin &amp; The Steel Index) and expect iron ore prices to average USD55-60/ton for 2018.

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring prices on pollution curbs. This is one commodity that has defied the descending trend of other commodities recently such as Gold, Copper and Crude Oil.  The question is whether iron ore price momentum will continue into the second half of 2018. We track the benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content (which is the industry standard specification assessed by Platts, Metal Bulletin &amp; The Steel Index) and expect iron ore prices to average USD55-60/ton for 2018.

Commodity Critic: Where Is the Iron Ore Price Heading?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight starts with a bit of history. It is entirely extraneous to the data, but I think the history is kind of fun. If you want to get right to the data, go to the Thin Red Line.<hr>In 1744, an announcement appeared in the Daily Post that the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street, London (just east of the Bank of England) had changed its name to Virginia and Baltick Coffee House.<blockquote>This is to give notice that the house, late the Maryland Coffee House in Threadneedle Street…</blockquote>

This insight starts with a bit of history. It is entirely extraneous to the data, but I think the history is kind of fun. If you want to get right to the data, go to the Thin Red Line.In 1744, an announcement appeared in the Daily Post that the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street, London (just east of the Bank of England) had changed its name to Virginia and Baltick Coffee House.This is to give notice that the house, late the Maryland Coffee House in Threadneedle Street…

Baltic Dry - It's That Time of Year. Again. [2018 Version]

<ul><li>Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.</li></ul>

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past three months have stabilized at support, which we view as timely entry points that will lead to upside resumptions.  This report highlights actionable charts, sorted by market capitalization.

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Brazil

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in metals and mining, and one of the largest logistics operators in Brazil. It is a leading global producer of iron ore and nickel, also producing copper, manganese, ferroalloys, and other base metals. The company operates integrated logistics systems including railways, maritime terminals, and ports. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the company was founded in 1942.

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Vale (VALE3 BR)

EM Equity Strategy: Overweight BRIC

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership. In addition...

Vermilion Research

Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

China's mill margins are turning positive, but watch the risks: diesel shortages are squeezing the cost curve, and Simandou supply is...

Sameer Taneja

Commodity Critic: Where Is the Iron Ore Price Heading?

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring...

Bondcritic

Baltic Dry - It's That Time of Year. Again. [2018 Version]

This insight starts with a bit of history. It is entirely extraneous to the data, but I think the history is kind of fun. If you want to get right...

Travis Lundy

Pullback Opportunities in Global Metals & Mining Stocks

Global mining stocks offer an attractive, mid-cycle pullback opportunity. From steel to copper and aluminum stocks, retracements over the past...

Vermilion Research

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