Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.</li>
<li>WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.</li>
</ul>


Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&amp;P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse.
WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.


S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI commenced a market consultation for the S&amp;P Global Water Index on 29 July and that could lead to quite a few changes to the index in October.</li>
<li>We currently see 14 deletions and 10 inclusions for the index in October. Most of the changes will have a high impact from passive fund trading.</li>
<li>There could be more changes in April 2023 once stocks listed in Emerging Markets are included in the index.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI commenced a market consultation for the S&amp;P Global Water Index on 29 July and that could lead to quite a few changes to the index in October.
We currently see 14 deletions and 10 inclusions for the index in October. Most of the changes will have a high impact from passive fund trading.
There could be more changes in April 2023 once stocks listed in Emerging Markets are included in the index.


S&P Global Water Index: Market Consultation Driven Potential Changes

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.</li>
<li>Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.</li>
<li>The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers</li>
</ul>


Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.
Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.
The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers


iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week's FOMC announcement and quad witching allowed for some breadth improvement, and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell Micro Cap indexes broke above their respective downtrends.</li>
<li>While this is undoubtedly a positive, we are waiting for more confirmation. It is not uncommon to have misdirection following important FOMC meetings.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000(IWM) remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance level in regards to the broad market.</li>
</ul>


Last week's FOMC announcement and quad witching allowed for some breadth improvement, and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell Micro Cap indexes broke above their respective downtrends.
While this is undoubtedly a positive, we are waiting for more confirmation. It is not uncommon to have misdirection following important FOMC meetings.
The Russell 2000(IWM) remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance level in regards to the broad market.


Russell 2000 Testing Resistance; Buying Steel, Copper, Uranium, Ag Equipment Stocks

<p>The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&amp;P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Manufacturing (Agricultural Equipment).</p>

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&amp;P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Manufacturing (Agricultural Equipment).

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

United States

Valmont Industries, Inc. designs and manufactures poles, towers, and structures for lighting, communication, and utility markets and provides protective coating services for infrastructure.  The Company also manufactures and distributes industrial and agricultural irrigation products in addition to a wide variety of fabricated products for commercial and industrial applications.

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Valmont Industries (VMI US)

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on $SPX, $293 on the $QQQ $NDX, and $177-178 on the $IWM. WTI crude oil is breaking below $85;...

Vermilion Research

S&P Global Water Index: Market Consultation Driven Potential Changes

S&P DJI's market consultation for the S&P Global Water Index could lead to quite a few changes to the index in October. There are a few potential...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/25

Bill Ackman and Buying “Bargains”; One of the notable market news stories this past week was Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Russell 2000 Testing Resistance; Buying Steel, Copper, Uranium, Ag Equipment Stocks

The Russell 2000 $IWM remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&P 500 is going through a consolidation phase.

Vermilion Research

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