Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard's order visibility is about two months, and its order backlog is also about two months now.</li>
<li>Vanguard's goal is to establish a 12" wafer Fab, which we estimate will likely be viable around 2026F.</li>
<li>We believe that technology nodes below 28nm HKMG, specifically 40nm and below, would be suitable for transfer.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard's order visibility is about two months, and its order backlog is also about two months now.
Vanguard's goal is to establish a 12" wafer Fab, which we estimate will likely be viable around 2026F.
We believe that technology nodes below 28nm HKMG, specifically 40nm and below, would be suitable for transfer.


VIS (5347:TT): The Outlook Is a Bit Slower in 4Q23F

<ul>
<li>Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. </li>
<li>Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.</li>
<li>It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.</li>
</ul>


Revenue declined by a single-digit percentage quarter over quarter. However, it is expected to improve in the following quarters. 
Automotive applications are currently undergoing inventory adjustments, while consumer applications are entering the low season. Electric Vehicle components are expected to continue growing.
It will still maintain the previous payout level of NTD$4.5.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

<ul>
<li>The current market outlook is expected to improve, although the demand is still down in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>The 2Q24F revenue could potentially increase by a high single digits QoQ at least.</li>
<li>The demand is expected to grow by around 10% YoY in 2024F. This indicates a rebound, although not a strong one.</li>
</ul>


The current market outlook is expected to improve, although the demand is still down in 1Q24F.
The 2Q24F revenue could potentially increase by a high single digits QoQ at least.
The demand is expected to grow by around 10% YoY in 2024F. This indicates a rebound, although not a strong one.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Is Down QoQ; 2024F Demand to Grow by Around 10% YoY.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.</li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

VIS (5347:TT): The Outlook Is a Bit Slower in 4Q23F

Vanguard's order outlook is a bit slower in 4Q23F. Vanguard's goal is to establish a 12" wafer Fab, which we estimate will likely be viable with...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Is Down QoQ; 2024F Demand to Grow by Around 10% YoY.

Despite a decline in demand in 1Q24F, the market outlook is predicted to improve with potential revenue growth of high single digits in 2Q24F and...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

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VIS (5347:TT): The Outlook Is a Bit Slower in 4Q23F

Vanguard's order outlook is a bit slower in 4Q23F. Vanguard's goal is to establish a 12" wafer Fab, which we estimate will likely be viable with...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F In-Line with Our Expectation, Following a Upside Quarter over Quarter.

​Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Is Down QoQ; 2024F Demand to Grow by Around 10% YoY.

​Despite a decline in demand in 1Q24F, the market outlook is predicted to improve with potential revenue growth of high single digits in 2Q24F and...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

​TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Quarterly sales declined but is expected to improve. Auto application are adjusting inventory, while consumer applications are entering a low...

Despite a decline in demand in 1Q24F, the market outlook is predicted to improve with potential revenue growth of high single digits in 2Q24F and...

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...