Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We estimate that TSMC’s revenue could grow by approximately 40%–43% YoY in 2026.</li>
<li>2027 growth remains dominated by AI and its the only Key Growth Driver  </li>
<li>The Key Question: What Will Happen in 2028? Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand — Our Preferred Scenario</li>
</ul>


We estimate that TSMC’s revenue could grow by approximately 40%–43% YoY in 2026.
2027 growth remains dominated by AI and its the only Key Growth Driver  
The Key Question: What Will Happen in 2028? Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand — Our Preferred Scenario


TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Preferred Scenario Is: Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand by 2028

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The AI boom has attracted a portion of wafer capacity, driving a significant increase in overall wafer demand.</li>
<li>In comparison, Vanguard’s share price likely still has considerable upside potential.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> is focusing on the specialty market, with new products initially being shipped in relatively small volumes within specialty applications.</li>
</ul>


The AI boom has attracted a portion of wafer capacity, driving a significant increase in overall wafer demand.
In comparison, Vanguard’s share price likely still has considerable upside potential.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is focusing on the specialty market, with new products initially being shipped in relatively small volumes within specialty applications.


Vanguard (5347.TT): The 2nd Wave of 8" Wafer Price Increase for 2H26~1Q27

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is selling part of its stake in IC foundry service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> to raise US$787m.</li>
<li>Deal will result in a reduction in TSMC stake to around 19% from current 27%, and as per company, it has no plans to sell more VIS shares. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework</li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US) is selling part of its stake in IC foundry service provider Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) to raise US$787m.
Deal will result in a reduction in TSMC stake to around 19% from current 27%, and as per company, it has no plans to sell more VIS shares. 
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework


Aequitas: Vanguard International Semiconductor Placement - Opportunistic Sale by TSMC

<ul>
<li>Vanguard has the potential for double-digit revenue growth in Q2, for both the volume and price.</li>
<li>Vanguard is strategically shifting capacity to PMIC, with customers concerned about continued growth in consumer demand in H2.   </li>
<li>Other aspects: 8” prices continue to rise, with potential for further increases in H2, so Vanguard’s value will continue to grow.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard has the potential for double-digit revenue growth in Q2, for both the volume and price.
Vanguard is strategically shifting capacity to PMIC, with customers concerned about continued growth in consumer demand in H2.   
Other aspects: 8” prices continue to rise, with potential for further increases in H2, so Vanguard’s value will continue to grow.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2026 Outlook Is Very Positive

<ul>
<li>Recently, there’s a rumor: Are 8-inch wafers currently negotiating Q2 prices? Is there a chance for a price increase after the Lunar New Year?  </li>
<li>We’ve heard that TSMC and Samsung are exiting the 8” foundry market.  </li>
<li>Vanguard’s 12” wafer output won’t hit the market until early 2027, so there’s no need to consider price increases for now.  </li>
</ul>


Recently, there’s a rumor: Are 8-inch wafers currently negotiating Q2 prices? Is there a chance for a price increase after the Lunar New Year?  
We’ve heard that TSMC and Samsung are exiting the 8” foundry market.  
Vanguard’s 12” wafer output won’t hit the market until early 2027, so there’s no need to consider price increases for now.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US)/ Vanguard (547.TT): The Wafer Prices of Second-Tier Foundries Are Rising.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Preferred Scenario Is: Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand by 2028

TSMC’s revenue could grow by approximately 40%–43% YoY in 2026. 2027 growth remains dominated by AI. Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand —...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 2nd Wave of 8" Wafer Price Increase for 2H26~1Q27

AI boom driving wafer demand, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor focusing on specialty market with potential upside in share price.

Patrick Liao

Aequitas: Vanguard International Semiconductor Placement - Opportunistic Sale by TSMC

TSMC partial sale in VIS for $787m, reducing stake to 19% from 27% with no plans for further sales. In this note, we will talk about the placement...

Nicholas Tan

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2026 Outlook Is Very Positive

Vanguard poised for double-digit revenue growth in Q2, shifting capacity to meet PMIC demand and anticipating price increases in H2.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US)/ Vanguard (547.TT): The Wafer Prices of Second-Tier Foundries Are Rising.

Rumors of 8-inch wafer price negotiations and potential price increase post-Lunar New Year, while TSMC and Samsung exit market and Vanguard's 12...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Preferred Scenario Is: Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand by 2028

TSMC’s revenue could grow by approximately 40%–43% YoY in 2026. 2027 growth remains dominated by AI. Investment Slightly Exceeds Near-Term Demand —...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 2nd Wave of 8" Wafer Price Increase for 2H26~1Q27

​AI boom driving wafer demand, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor focusing on specialty market with potential upside in share price.

Patrick Liao

Aequitas: Vanguard International Semiconductor Placement - Opportunistic Sale by TSMC

​TSMC partial sale in VIS for $787m, reducing stake to 19% from 27% with no plans for further sales. In this note, we will talk about the placement...

Nicholas Tan

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2026 Outlook Is Very Positive

​Vanguard poised for double-digit revenue growth in Q2, shifting capacity to meet PMIC demand and anticipating price increases in H2.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US)/ Vanguard (547.TT): The Wafer Prices of Second-Tier Foundries Are Rising.

​Rumors of 8-inch wafer price negotiations and potential price increase post-Lunar New Year, while TSMC and Samsung exit market and Vanguard's 12...

Patrick Liao

AI boom driving wafer demand, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor focusing on specialty market with potential upside in share price.

TSMC partial sale in VIS for $787m, reducing stake to 19% from 27% with no plans for further sales. In this note, we will talk about the placement...

Vanguard poised for double-digit revenue growth in Q2, shifting capacity to meet PMIC demand and anticipating price increases in H2.

Rumors of 8-inch wafer price negotiations and potential price increase post-Lunar New Year, while TSMC and Samsung exit market and Vanguard's 12...