Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Outlook &amp; Guidance- Revenue: NT$23.7–24.7bn( down 9.5~5.7% QoQ); Gross Margin: 34–37%; Operating Margin: 15–18%; USD/TWD Assumption: 29.5</li>
<li>Weaker demand from China due to subsidy tapering in 3Q25, but seasonal stocking in non-China markets.</li>
<li>2025 foldable penetration estimated at ~1.6% (~19mn units); Large foldables: higher internal display resolution and ASP; OLED TDDI advantage: fewer components, more space-efficient, enabling thinner phones. </li>
</ul>


3Q25 Outlook &amp; Guidance- Revenue: NT$23.7–24.7bn( down 9.5~5.7% QoQ); Gross Margin: 34–37%; Operating Margin: 15–18%; USD/TWD Assumption: 29.5
Weaker demand from China due to subsidy tapering in 3Q25, but seasonal stocking in non-China markets.
2025 foldable penetration estimated at ~1.6% (~19mn units); Large foldables: higher internal display resolution and ASP; OLED TDDI advantage: fewer components, more space-efficient, enabling thinner phones. 


Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.</li>
<li>To meet customer demand, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.</li>
<li>We estimate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navitas-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36294:1" rel="noopener">Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US)</a> alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.
To meet customer demand, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.
We estimate that Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US) alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC</li>
<li>Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot </li>
</ul>


Samsung’s 1.4nm Technology Delay Highlights Potential That Intel Could End Up the Only Viable Alternative to TSMC -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC
Micron Results Today Will Provide Insight Into Resilience of AI/HPC Equipment Demand
TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Monthly sales are volatile and must be looked at with a modicum of circumspection. Yet, TSMC April revenue growth accelerated to +48% YoY and represent 39% of 2Q revenue guidance. </li>
<li>This opens the possibility of TSMC delivering a decent beat in 2Q. UMC April revenue are inline, Vanguard is below. </li>
<li>Remarkably, TSMC stock is not expensive at 15.4x 2025 EPS, 13x 2026EPS. It is actually the 2nd cheapest stock after UMC.</li>
</ul>


Monthly sales are volatile and must be looked at with a modicum of circumspection. Yet, TSMC April revenue growth accelerated to +48% YoY and represent 39% of 2Q revenue guidance. 
This opens the possibility of TSMC delivering a decent beat in 2Q. UMC April revenue are inline, Vanguard is below. 
Remarkably, TSMC stock is not expensive at 15.4x 2025 EPS, 13x 2026EPS. It is actually the 2nd cheapest stock after UMC.


Taiwan Foundry Revenue: Very Strong TSMC April Revenues

<ul>
<li>2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.</li>
<li>100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.</li>
<li>2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.


Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

TSMC is shifting focus away from the gallium nitride market to prioritize high-growth areas, reallocating resources to meet customer demand....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Foundry Revenue: Very Strong TSMC April Revenues

TSMC's strong April revenue growth could lead to a beat in 2Q, despite volatile monthly sales. Stock not expensive compared to peers.

Nicolas Baratte

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

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Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

​3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Halts GaN Production at Fab 5, Shifting to Advanced Packaging.

TSMC is shifting focus away from the gallium nitride market to prioritize high-growth areas, reallocating resources to meet customer demand....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

​Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Foundry Revenue: Very Strong TSMC April Revenues

​TSMC's strong April revenue growth could lead to a beat in 2Q, despite volatile monthly sales. Stock not expensive compared to peers.

Nicolas Baratte

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

​2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Samsung's 1.4nm technology delay could make Intel the only viable alternative to TSMC, while Micron's results will show the resilience of AI/HPC...

TSMC's strong April revenue growth could lead to a beat in 2Q, despite volatile monthly sales. Stock not expensive compared to peers.

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...