Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook</li>
<li>Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile</li>
<li>Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity


<ul>
<li>Vista Energy - Mercado Libre - Telecom Argentina - Suzano - Cemex</li>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. </li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw significant declines. The 10-year yield fell 22 bps to 4.21%, while the 5-year yield declined 25 bps to 4.02%.</li>
</ul>


Vista Energy - Mercado Libre - Telecom Argentina - Suzano - Cemex
The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. 
U.S. Treasuries saw significant declines. The 10-year yield fell 22 bps to 4.21%, while the 5-year yield declined 25 bps to 4.02%.


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.</li>
<li>Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.</li>
<li>We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.
Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.
We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.


Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.</li>
<li>Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points (bps) to 319 bps in the week ending on Friday, January 24, 2025.
U.S. Treasuries saw modest increases, with the 10-year yield up 2 bps to 4.64% and the 5-year yield also up 2 bps to 4.45%.
Cemex – Mexico Construction Key Indicators, YPF/Vista - Shale Boom Drives Argentina’s Energy Trade Surplus.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Mexico

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company invests in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Vista Energy serves customers in Latin America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST US)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views - Feb 28, 2025

The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Emerging Market Index...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views - Feb 28, 2025

The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Emerging Market Index...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

​LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.

Leandro Gubler

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

LatAm Corporate Index tightens, U.S. Treasuries see modest increases, Cemex and YPF/Vista drive Mexico and Argentina's economic indicators.