Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins</li>
<li>Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters</li>
</ul>


Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply
Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins
Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters


More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be "market to market" values</li>
<li>This approach suggests TS Lines' equity could be worth &gt; US$2.0 bn</li>
<li>However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach</li>
</ul>


Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be "market to market" values
This approach suggests TS Lines' equity could be worth &gt; US$2.0 bn
However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach


TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using the last close, there could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one other constituent that is close to deletion zone while there are a couple of non-constituents that could move into inclusion zone over the next couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Short interest has been dropping in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> and increasing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Using the last close, there could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September with Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) replacing Nanya Technology (2408 TT). 
There is one other constituent that is close to deletion zone while there are a couple of non-constituents that could move into inclusion zone over the next couple of weeks.
Short interest has been dropping in Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) and increasing in Nanya Technology (2408 TT) over the last few weeks.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y</li>
<li>After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again</li>
<li>We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago</li>
</ul>


Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y
After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again
We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago


Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

<ul>
<li>Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong</li>
<li>But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows</li>
<li>We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade </li>
</ul>


Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong
But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows
We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

Taiwan

Wan Hai Lines Ltd. provides marine transportation and shipping agent services. The Company also purchases, sells, and leases vessels and containers as well as operates container freight stations.

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Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)

More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Evergreen Marine's Q2 results far outpaced the results of both Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. The Taiwanese carrier's results over the past 2.5 years...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

Adjusting the book value of TS Lines' fleet based on recent newbuilding prices implies an equity valuation for the regional container carrier of as...

Tracking Traffic

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp

There could be one change for the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. Review cutoff is two weeks away and there are some stocks that are close to the...

Brian Freitas

Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

If you've read about skyrocketing spot container rates in 2024, you may be surprised to learn that Danish container shipping giant reported Y/Y...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

In June, price momentum and volume growth remained firm, but in July we've seen some spot rates dip. Mainly due to share price movements, we have...

Tracking Traffic

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