Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.</li>
<li>NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.</li>
<li>The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.</li>
<li>Tencent invests in Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


Hellobike, an Alibaba’s investee and traffic source, will go public in 2Q21.
NetEase’s Cloud Music is seeking IPO next year.
The authorities said Tencent and Baidu were fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval.
Tencent invests in Rakuten.


China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. <span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a><span>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Zhihu's potential valuation. </span></p></div>
</div>


Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC. Zhihu is acknowledged as the first choice among all online content communities in China where people look for information to make decisions or find answers, according to CIC. Zhihu is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and Baidu (BIDU US).
Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Zhihu's potential valuation. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> plans to raise around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. <span>I have covered most aspects of the deal in my earlier note, </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-early-look-will-be-one-of-the-largest-secondary-listings-this-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing Early Look - Will Be One of the Largest Secondary Listings This Year</a><span>.</span></p></div><div><p>In this note, I'll only touch upon the updates since my last note.</p></div>

Baidu (BIDU US) plans to raise around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. I have covered most aspects of the deal in my earlier note, Baidu Secondary Listing Early Look - Will Be One of the Largest Secondary Listings This Year.In this note, I'll only touch upon the updates since my last note.

Baidu Secondary Listing - Smaller than Expected, Doing the Bare Minimum

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Back on the 6 July last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sina-corp-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22691:1" rel="noopener">Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US)</a> <a href="http://ir.sina.com/index.php/static-files/69e95aee-2729-457f-be56-73628090b8ea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the receipt of a preliminary non-binding “going private” proposal from New Wave MMXV - a company controlled by its chairman/CEO Charles Chao - at US$41/share. This was followed by an <a href="http://ir.sina.com/static-files/de1ddd0f-354f-42de-9b33-b1bc414ab1b4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agreement and Plan of Merger</a> pursuant to which New Wave will acquire all of the outstanding ordinary shares not owned at US$43.30/share.</p>
<p>Despite an undemanding Offer price, shareholders approved (93.6% of the total votes) the merger on the <a href="http://ir.sina.com/static-files/ea4a5614-30e8-472c-895c-31e120de3261" target="_blank" rel="noopener">23 December</a>.</p>
<p>Completion of the merger was contingent on the satisfaction or waiver of the closing conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, including no more than 10% of the ordinary shares dissenting.</p>
<p>Prior to the  EGM, <a href="http://ir.sina.com/static-files/722deb54-0426-4b43-a58a-1c8be8b59b61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">21.5mn shares or 35.9%</a> of the total issued and outstanding shares of Sina issued notices of objections to the company. </p>
<p>On or prior to January 12, 2021, Sina intended to issue written notices of authorization to all the objecting shareholders. Within 20 days immediately <em>after</em> the date on which these notices were given, any objecting shareholder was required to give written notice of its decision to dissent.</p>
<p>There has been no update on the merger from Sina since the 28 December. Behind the scenes, Charles Chao can choose to walk, negotiate a superior price with dissentient shareholders, or waive the condition.  Should he waive the condition, dissentient shareholders have the right to be paid fair value for their shares, as determined by the Cayman Island's Grand Court.</p>
<p>More below the fold.<a href="https://www.collascrill.com/news-updates/articles/grand-court-confirms-that-dissent-rights-are-available-to-minority-shareholders-in-short-form-mergers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></p>

Back on the 6 July last year, Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US) announced the receipt of a preliminary non-binding “going private” proposal from New Wave MMXV - a company controlled by its chairman/CEO Charles Chao - at US$41/share. This was followed by an Agreement and Plan of Merger pursuant to which New Wave will acquire all of the outstanding ordinary shares not owned at US$43.30/share.
Despite an undemanding Offer price, shareholders approved (93.6% of the total votes) the merger on the 23 December.
Completion of the merger was contingent on the satisfaction or waiver of the closing conditions set forth in the Merger Agreement, including no more than 10% of the ordinary shares dissenting.
Prior to the  EGM, 21.5mn shares or 35.9% of the total issued and outstanding shares of Sina issued notices of objections to the company. 
On or prior to January 12, 2021, Sina intended to issue written notices of authorization to all the objecting shareholders. Within 20 days immediately after the date on which these notices were given, any objecting shareholder was required to give written notice of its decision to dissent.
There has been no update on the merger from Sina since the 28 December. Behind the scenes, Charles Chao can choose to walk, negotiate a superior price with dissentient shareholders, or waive the condition.  Should he waive the condition, dissentient shareholders have the right to be paid fair value for their shares, as determined by the Cayman Island's Grand Court.
More below the fold.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

<p>Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>, and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. </p><p>Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. </p><p>In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.</p>

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed Ant Group (6688 HK), and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the Alibaba Group (9988 HK), it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce

China

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

China Internet Weekly (Mar 15): BABA & NTES Subsidiaries Seek IPO, Tencent Invests in Rakuten

Tencent was fined not because they eliminate competition, but because they forgot to ask for approval. Tencent invests in Rakuten. Hellobike and...

Ming Lu

Zhihu IPO: Valuation First Look

Zhihu is pre-marketing an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the...

Arun George

Baidu Secondary Listing - Smaller than Expected, Doing the Bare Minimum

Baidu plans to raise around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. I have covered most aspects of the deal in my earlier note. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

What's Going On With Sina Corp?

Currently trading to terms. This is an avoid. The Offer is being done too cheaply, But unless you have already dissented, you are effectively...

David Blennerhassett

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce

In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts to assess the implied value for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can...

Wium Malan, CFA

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