Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FX reserves, which had declined over 10% from Mar'22 to Oct'22, rebounded by 8.9% in Nov-Dec'22. Anwar's inclusive policies will likely induce a steady rebound in net capital inflows. </li>
<li>Base effects have facilitated 9.3%YoY real GDP growth in Q1-Q3 2022 led by strong private consumption and net exports; better growth cut the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP YTD.    </li>
<li>Net foreign portfolio outflows averaged 1.75% of GDP since 2013. As FPI rebounds, and non-bumiputera businesses invest anew, Malaysia's real GDP will grow 6% despite the OECD recession in 2023.</li>
</ul>


FX reserves, which had declined over 10% from Mar'22 to Oct'22, rebounded by 8.9% in Nov-Dec'22. Anwar's inclusive policies will likely induce a steady rebound in net capital inflows. 
Base effects have facilitated 9.3%YoY real GDP growth in Q1-Q3 2022 led by strong private consumption and net exports; better growth cut the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP YTD.    
Net foreign portfolio outflows averaged 1.75% of GDP since 2013. As FPI rebounds, and non-bumiputera businesses invest anew, Malaysia's real GDP will grow 6% despite the OECD recession in 2023.


Malaysia: Anwar Well-Positioned to Spur Economic Recovery as Capital Flows Back

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite trading up from its multi-year low implied stub and simple ratio (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>), SoftBank remains "cheap".</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on SoftBank - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8553:1" rel="noopener">YTL Corp (YTL MK)</a>- are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite trading up from its multi-year low implied stub and simple ratio (Softbank Group (9984 JP)/ARM Holdings (ARM US)), SoftBank remains "cheap".
Preceding my comments on SoftBank - and YTL Corp (YTL MK)- are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: A SoftBank Set-Up Hinges Off Its All-In OpenAI Bet

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Sep 25th. The aggregated short interest is USD1,514m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CIMB, Guan Chong, Frontken, AMMB, TIME Dotcom.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Sep 25th. The aggregated short interest is USD1,514m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CIMB, Guan Chong, Frontken, AMMB, TIME Dotcom.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): CIMB, Guan Chong, Frontken, AMMB, TIME Dotcom

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite softness in Singapore retail, DBS remains optimistic about premium groceries, focusing on that market.</li><li>UOB Kay Hian's top Malaysian stock picks include JS-SEZ, benefiting from property, construction, and energy sectors.</li><li>DBS raises ratings for PropNex &amp; APAC Realty to 'buy', citing a strong new launch pipeline in 2025, and sold SingPost shares.</li></ul>

Despite softness in Singapore retail, DBS remains optimistic about premium groceries, focusing on that market.UOB Kay Hian's top Malaysian stock picks include JS-SEZ, benefiting from property, construction, and energy sectors.DBS raises ratings for PropNex &amp; APAC Realty to 'buy', citing a strong new launch pipeline in 2025, and sold SingPost shares.

Singapore Market Roundup (08-Jan-2025): DBS cautious on SG retail, bullish on premium groceries.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Equity Bottom-Up

YTL Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-power-international-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1239:1" rel="noopener">YTL Power International (YTLP MK)</a> has moved from a utility company to an AI value chain that commands higher valuation. </li>
<li>It partners with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>to build data centers in Johor area. </li>
<li>It also acts as foreign currency accumulator, as it borrows in MYR and receive revenue in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gbp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22822:1" rel="noopener">GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sgd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22827:1" rel="noopener">SGD (USDSGD CURNCY)</a> .</li>
</ul>



YTL Power International (YTLP MK) has moved from a utility company to an AI value chain that commands higher valuation. 
It partners with NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)to build data centers in Johor area. 
It also acts as foreign currency accumulator, as it borrows in MYR and receive revenue in both GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY) and SGD (USDSGD CURNCY) .


Malaysia

YTL Corporation Berhad is an investment holding and management company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates an integrated infrastructure development which includes construction work on contractual basis, property development, power generation, and hotel development and management. YTL Corporation also manufactures industrial products and supplies.

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YTL Corp (YTL MK)

Malaysia: Anwar Well-Positioned to Spur Economic Recovery as Capital Flows Back

FX reserves & MYR have rebounded since Anwar became PM. Non-bumi businesses which were investing outside Malaysia since 2000 are set to return,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

StubWorld: A SoftBank Set-Up Hinges Off Its All-In OpenAI Bet

From an implied stub angle, and IF you have a strong opinion on OpenAI, I might be inclined to set up the stub here. The simple ratio - SoftBank...

David Blennerhassett

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): CIMB, Guan Chong, Frontken, AMMB, TIME Dotcom

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in CIMB, Guan Chong, Frontken, AMMB, TIME...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Singapore Market Roundup (08-Jan-2025): DBS cautious on SG retail, bullish on premium groceries.

DBS remains optimistic about premium groceries despite softness in Singapore retail, UOB Kay Hian recommends JS-SEZ for property, construction, and...

Singapore Market Roundup

YTL Power: Transformation

YTL Power has transformed from utility company to AI supply chain company that commands higher premium. It has around 12% of its market cap in...

Henry Soediarko

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