Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong secular bull market has consolidated within its long-term support/resistance range of 22700 and 24000.  With increasing momentum and strength the market is poised for the next leg up.</li>
<li>Hong Kong tech and consumer discretionary sectors continue to have strong momentum with healthcare and materials sectors showing renewed strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> shares bounce with the appointment of new CEO, pointing to increasing China revenue.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> reported strong earnings and increased its dividend.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong secular bull market has consolidated within its long-term support/resistance range of 22700 and 24000.  With increasing momentum and strength the market is poised for the next leg up.
Hong Kong tech and consumer discretionary sectors continue to have strong momentum with healthcare and materials sectors showing renewed strength.

Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) shares bounce with the appointment of new CEO, pointing to increasing China revenue.  Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported strong earnings and increased its dividend.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.</li>
<li>We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.</li>
<li>Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.</li>
</ul>


Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.
We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.
Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.


Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As the trade war unfolds, more market volatility seems likely. In the 2018 episode China and Korea drove Asian drawdown. But today, China exports far less to America than earlier.</li>
<li>The 2025 trade war is more expansive, with larger tariffs being imposed. In 2018, the defensives and non-tradables outperformed. Similar sectors, but not the same markets could do well now.</li>
<li>Our Capital Preservation Basket presents eight cheap stocks with domestic revenue exposure and earnings estimate increases over past six months. They are from HK/China (5), Philippines (2) and Korea (1).</li>
</ul>


As the trade war unfolds, more market volatility seems likely. In the 2018 episode China and Korea drove Asian drawdown. But today, China exports far less to America than earlier.
The 2025 trade war is more expansive, with larger tariffs being imposed. In 2018, the defensives and non-tradables outperformed. Similar sectors, but not the same markets could do well now.
Our Capital Preservation Basket presents eight cheap stocks with domestic revenue exposure and earnings estimate increases over past six months. They are from HK/China (5), Philippines (2) and Korea (1).


Asian Equities: Preserving Capital in 2025 – Parallels and Contrasts from 2018

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a> raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.</li>
<li>GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.
GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Guzman IPO Lockup - Pop Done, Correction Ongoing, Now Time for the Lockup

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

HK is consolidating within its long term support/resistance levels of 22700 and 24000. Mainland buying is at historically high levels. Bud APAC...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Preserving Capital in 2025 – Parallels and Contrasts from 2018

Volatility could rise as trade war escalates. But China exports much less to US now, Korea & Taiwan much more. Our Capital Preservation Basket has...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Guzman IPO Lockup - Pop Done, Correction Ongoing, Now Time for the Lockup

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon, if they stock manages to...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (March 11)

HK is consolidating within its long term support/resistance levels of 22700 and 24000. Mainland buying is at historically high levels. Bud APAC...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

​Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Preserving Capital in 2025 – Parallels and Contrasts from 2018

​Volatility could rise as trade war escalates. But China exports much less to US now, Korea & Taiwan much more. Our Capital Preservation Basket has...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Guzman IPO Lockup - Pop Done, Correction Ongoing, Now Time for the Lockup

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon, if they stock manages to...

Sumeet Singh

Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Volatility could rise as trade war escalates. But China exports much less to US now, Korea & Taiwan much more. Our Capital Preservation Basket has...