HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mavacamten is expected to be LianBio’s first commercialized product. Due to low diagnostic rate/doctors’ insufficient cognition of HCM, whether it can become a blockbuster drug in China is still uncertain.</li>
<li>There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in model, and its “fault-tolerant space” is small. LianBio has to go all the way to the end.Otherwise, the license-in projects will eventually become worthless.</li>
<li>Due to high cost rate, it’s difficult for LianBio to make profit even with large drug sales. Although pipeline is good, LianBio could still fail to bring investors good returns.</li>
</ul>


Mavacamten is expected to be LianBio’s first commercialized product. Due to low diagnostic rate/doctors’ insufficient cognition of HCM, whether it can become a blockbuster drug in China is still uncertain.
There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in model, and its “fault-tolerant space” is small. LianBio has to go all the way to the end.Otherwise, the license-in projects will eventually become worthless.
Due to high cost rate, it’s difficult for LianBio to make profit even with large drug sales. Although pipeline is good, LianBio could still fail to bring investors good returns.


LianBio (LIAN.US) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If you look up history, Laekna has certain connection with Novartis. However, Novartis seems to have not made much progress in small-molecule targeted oncology therapies in the past few years.</li>
<li>LAE001 would face fierce competition. Its new mechanism may not be accepted by doctors/patients in front of many mature drug options in the market. LAE002 has high R&amp;D failure risk.</li>
<li>Since the stock price performance of a number of innovative drug companies based on license-in model in HKEX is unsatisfactory, together with the weak sentiment, we remain conservative about Laekna. </li>
</ul>


If you look up history, Laekna has certain connection with Novartis. However, Novartis seems to have not made much progress in small-molecule targeted oncology therapies in the past few years.
LAE001 would face fierce competition. Its new mechanism may not be accepted by doctors/patients in front of many mature drug options in the market. LAE002 has high R&amp;D failure risk.
Since the stock price performance of a number of innovative drug companies based on license-in model in HKEX is unsatisfactory, together with the weak sentiment, we remain conservative about Laekna. 


Pre-IPO Laekna (PHIP Updates) - Some Key Points Worth the Attention

Cutia Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Majority of Cutia’s products are based on license-in/distribution agreements. Cutia’s independent R&amp;D capability has yet to be proven. Stock prices of companies that completely rely on license-in are unsatisfactory.</li>
<li>Cutia's pipelines have unique characteristics. So, the requirements on team's ability are comprehensive. Purely medical background of Cutia's team could be a “hindrance” and may fail to commercialize them well.</li>
<li>There is a real need in the fields Cutia is focusing on, so the story is compelling. However, with limited commercialized products, it’s difficult to prove anything at current stage.</li>
</ul>


Majority of Cutia’s products are based on license-in/distribution agreements. Cutia’s independent R&amp;D capability has yet to be proven. Stock prices of companies that completely rely on license-in are unsatisfactory.
Cutia's pipelines have unique characteristics. So, the requirements on team's ability are comprehensive. Purely medical background of Cutia's team could be a “hindrance” and may fail to commercialize them well.
There is a real need in the fields Cutia is focusing on, so the story is compelling. However, with limited commercialized products, it’s difficult to prove anything at current stage.


Pre-IPO Cutia Therapeutics (CUT HK) - Outlook Is Uncertain Due to Unique Pipeline Characteristics

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Zai Lab (ZLAB) reported C1Q23 top line in-line with our estimate but operating/net loss much smaller than our estimate due to cut in R&amp;D spending. </li>
<li>ZLAB’s narrower losses in C4Q22 and C1Q23, achieved through R&amp;D cut, do demonstrate the viability of the company achieving commercial breakeven by 2023 and full breakeven by 2025. </li>
<li>We still think these viabilities have difficulties to achieve and even achieved, hurt the LT value of the company; We raised our TP from US$25 to US$29 but maintain SELL.</li>
</ul>


Zai Lab (ZLAB) reported C1Q23 top line in-line with our estimate but operating/net loss much smaller than our estimate due to cut in R&amp;D spending. 
ZLAB’s narrower losses in C4Q22 and C1Q23, achieved through R&amp;D cut, do demonstrate the viability of the company achieving commercial breakeven by 2023 and full breakeven by 2025. 
We still think these viabilities have difficulties to achieve and even achieved, hurt the LT value of the company; We raised our TP from US$25 to US$29 but maintain SELL.


[Zai LAB (ZLAB US) Target Price Change]: Demonstrating Directionally Business Model to Profit

<ul>
<li>ZaiLab reported C4Q22 top line 3% above our estimate. Operating profit was worse than our estimate and consensus while net income was better mainly due to government grant; </li>
<li>We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support.</li>
<li>As a result, ZLAB’s pipeline needs to be heavily discounted; We maintain our SELL and cut TP from US$30 to US$25.</li>
</ul>


ZaiLab reported C4Q22 top line 3% above our estimate. Operating profit was worse than our estimate and consensus while net income was better mainly due to government grant; 
We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support.
As a result, ZLAB’s pipeline needs to be heavily discounted; We maintain our SELL and cut TP from US$30 to US$25.


[Zai LAB (ZLAB US) Earnings Review]: Pretty Much the Same…Maintain SELL

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

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Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

LianBio (LIAN.US) - Some Points Worth the Attention

LianBio's pipeline is good, but there’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in mode, making it hard to be breakeven. Approval of Mavacamten is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Laekna (PHIP Updates) - Some Key Points Worth the Attention

Laekna's core products would face different challenges, which makes us hard to be optimistic about their prospects.As a biotech based on license-in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Cutia Therapeutics (CUT HK) - Outlook Is Uncertain Due to Unique Pipeline Characteristics

Cutia need to clarify whether its positioning is to sell drugs or consumer products,as their strategies will be different. Cutia has to strengthen...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US) Target Price Change]: Demonstrating Directionally Business Model to Profit

Zai Lab (ZLAB) reported C1Q23 top line in-line with our estimate but operating/net loss much smaller than our estimate due to cut in R&D spending...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US) Earnings Review]: Pretty Much the Same…Maintain SELL

We maintain ZLAB’s business model is inherently flawed because each blockbuster drug it signed needs comprehensive sales support. As a result,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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