HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both generic drugs and innovative drugs are facing the problem of “shortened life cycle” in China, pushing pharmaceutical companies to optimize product mix and find some shortcut, such as license-in.</li>
<li>However, it has been more and more difficult to in-license cost-effective products, indicating that the afterwards commercialization could be hard to cover the license-in cost or make decent profits.. </li>
<li>A way out is to <strong>reshape the development path</strong> after license-in by relying on strong R&amp;D systems, so as to achieve truly valuable innovation and thus maximize the commercialization value. </li>
</ul>


Both generic drugs and innovative drugs are facing the problem of “shortened life cycle” in China, pushing pharmaceutical companies to optimize product mix and find some shortcut, such as license-in.
However, it has been more and more difficult to in-license cost-effective products, indicating that the afterwards commercialization could be hard to cover the license-in cost or make decent profits.. 
A way out is to reshape the development path after license-in by relying on strong R&amp;D systems, so as to achieve truly valuable innovation and thus maximize the commercialization value. 


A Second Thought on the License-In Mode - Dilemmas and Solutions

Equity Capital Markets

Betta Pharmaceuticals   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.</li>
<li>The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.</li>
<li>The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.</li>
</ul>


If the R&amp;D pipeline projects are not recognized by international capital,the main reason could be either the product development progress is lagging behind or the projects are not good enough.
The real innovative drugs would not be affected by generics that easily, and are to overturn the size of the old drug market.
The real risk of Betta would be revealed in the next few years as VBP promotes. So, we are conservative about the Company’s outlook at the current stage.


Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

<ul>
<li>Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.</li>
<li>The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.</li>
<li>In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.</li>
</ul>


Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.
The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.
In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

<ul>
<li>The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.</li>
<li>Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).</li>
<li>However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the <strong>big picture</strong>.</li>
</ul>


The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.
Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).
However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the big picture.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25877:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)</a> is famous for its license-in mode, but the biggest highlight is its strong vision and high success rate in the process, forming a distinctive pipeline.</li>
<li>The concerns such as the changes of pattern in license-in mode, attitude of the regulatory authorities, fierce competition and commercialization outlook also deserve attention.</li>
<li>Investing a company is actually investing in its people. We have confidence that Zai Lab would find its way out.</li>
</ul>



Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US) is famous for its license-in mode, but the biggest highlight is its strong vision and high success rate in the process, forming a distinctive pipeline.
The concerns such as the changes of pattern in license-in mode, attitude of the regulatory authorities, fierce competition and commercialization outlook also deserve attention.
Investing a company is actually investing in its people. We have confidence that Zai Lab would find its way out.


Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.US) - The Strength and the Concerns

China

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

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Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB US)

A Second Thought on the License-In Mode - Dilemmas and Solutions

We analyzed the logic and dilemma faced by China pharmaceutical companies in terms of license-in.As it's more difficult to in-license cost...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Betta Pharmaceuticals - Lack of Staying Power

The insight analyzed Betta about key products such as Icotinib, Ensartinib, MIL60, CM082, concerns on slow product iteration,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

The insight mainly analyzed the relationship of drug spending with GDP growth, different logic behind China/US biotech companies and related risks...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

This insight analyzed the concerns on capital arbitrage in domestic innovative drugs, the unsatisfactory innovative drug commercial results,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.US) - The Strength and the Concerns

This insight analyzes Zai Lab about its distinctive pipeline, the management team, the concerns on license-in mode, regulatory...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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