Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/forrestania-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34301:1" rel="noopener">Forrestania Resources Ltd (FRS AU)</a> all-scrip Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenith-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3234:1" rel="noopener">Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)</a> is a small M&amp;A deal. Look away now if this is not your bag. </li>
<li>There are some intriguing aspects surrounding this transaction - after the Offer was made - which are worthwhile discussing.</li>
<li>I believe there is a case for FRS misleading shareholders. Right now, the bid proceeds, and the Takeovers Panel is signalling caution as it considers Harvest Lane’s application.</li>
</ul>



Forrestania Resources Ltd (FRS AU) all-scrip Offer for Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU) is a small M&amp;A deal. Look away now if this is not your bag. 
There are some intriguing aspects surrounding this transaction - after the Offer was made - which are worthwhile discussing.
I believe there is a case for FRS misleading shareholders. Right now, the bid proceeds, and the Takeovers Panel is signalling caution as it considers Harvest Lane’s application.


Forrestania Resources (FRS AU)'s Untidy Offer For Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)

<ul>
<li>For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.</li>
<li>
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16344:1" rel="noopener">Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharingtechnology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26948:1" rel="noopener">Sharingtechnology Inc (3989 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenith-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3234:1" rel="noopener">Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cygnus-metals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30504:1" rel="noopener">Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ingenia Communities (INA AU), Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP), and Sharingtechnology Inc (3989 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on:Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU), and Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku, Ingenia Communities, Albis, Sharingtechnology, Cygnus Metals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a> is now down to "pure arb." All approvals are in. All financing done. The remaining trade is to buy and hold until the cash settles.</li>
<li>I see no startling revelation when inspecting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>'s s329 investigative reports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac (4004 JP)</a> is spinning off 80+% of its petrochemical division. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crasus-chemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58630:1" rel="noopener">Crasus Chemical</a> is unlikely to stay in MSCI. Definitely not Nikkei 225. Big selling on Day 1 at the close likely.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP) is now down to "pure arb." All approvals are in. All financing done. The remaining trade is to buy and hold until the cash settles.
I see no startling revelation when inspecting Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)'s s329 investigative reports.

Resonac (4004 JP) is spinning off 80+% of its petrochemical division. Crasus Chemical is unlikely to stay in MSCI. Definitely not Nikkei 225. Big selling on Day 1 at the close likely.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Nippon Sheet Glass, Guotai Junan, Resonac, Skyworth, Fosun, Austal

<ul>
<li>I tally 29 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-signet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55377:1" rel="noopener">SK Signet (260870 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-one-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19865:1" rel="noopener">Energy One (EOL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ns-united-kaiun-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17238:1" rel="noopener">Ns United Kaiun Kaisha (9110 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenith-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3234:1" rel="noopener">Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepper-money-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24157:1" rel="noopener">Pepper Money (PPM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16273:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Corp (6392 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16273:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 29 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: SK Signet (260870 KS), Energy One (EOL AU), and Ns United Kaiun Kaisha (9110 JP). 
Key updates/news also took place on: Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU), Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Pepper Money (PPM AU), and Yamada Corp (6392 JP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Perpetual, SK Signet, Energy One, Superland, WK Group, Ns United Kaiun, Yamada

Australia

Zenith Minerals Limited is a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company explores for zinc deposits. Zenith also explore for other minerals such as tungsten and molybdenum.

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Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)

Forrestania Resources (FRS AU)'s Untidy Offer For Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)

If small illiquid arbs are your thing, buy Zenith around here. Currently, the Panel makes no comment on the merits of Harvest's application; and...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

For the month of Sept, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma, with an overall deal size of ~US$26bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku, Ingenia Communities, Albis, Sharingtechnology, Cygnus Metals

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nippon Sheet Glass, Guotai Junan, Resonac, Skyworth, Fosun, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Perpetual, SK Signet, Energy One, Superland, WK Group, Ns United Kaiun, Yamada

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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