Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> is the biggest capping sell.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.</li>
<li>The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet &amp; Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).</li>
<li>By Quiddity calculations based on the 21 November close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$26.14bn (approximately), to trade on 5 December at the close.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet &amp; Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
By Quiddity calculations based on the 21 November close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$26.14bn (approximately), to trade on 5 December at the close.


[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.</li>
<li>
Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.</li>
<li>
Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.</li>
</ul>



Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.

Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.

Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.


BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one index change for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of ~US$1.9bn one-way.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
We continue to expect one index change for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of ~US$1.9bn one-way.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: AAC Tech up 9% Vs Peer; ~US$1.9bn One-Way; Announcement Soon

China

Leapmotor is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent electric vehicles (EVs), including sedans, SUVs, and microcars. The company also develops core EV components such as intelligent driving systems, electric drive assemblies, and battery systems. Founded in December 2015, Leapmotor is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Leapmotor (9863 HK)

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Dec25 Hang Seng Index Family Review; Flows for December 5 Rebal

The Hang Seng Index family announced its December rebalance changes on Friday after the close. Here we show the changes and flows across 6 major...

Travis Lundy

BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Amid bearish views, a targeted call-overwrite strategy delivers efficient yield through well-chosen strikes and expiries.

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: AAC Tech up 9% Vs Peer; ~US$1.9bn One-Way; Announcement Soon

We continue to expect AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) to outperform Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) over the next few week until the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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