Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.</li>
<li>The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> to open around HK$44.55/share.</li>
<li>There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> trackers is more nuanced.</li>
</ul>



NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.


NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a>, a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. </li>
<li>The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.</li>
<li>While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  </li>
</ul>



NIO (NIO US), a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer, has launched an equity offering to raise around US$1 billion. 
The raise is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the 83% QTD share price rally and comes hot on the heels of a US$513 million raise in April.
While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying competition warrants caution.  


NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  </li>
<li>Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> reported 2Q25 results on 19 Aug, beating expectations. This Insight analyzes price reactions in Hong Kong and two overseas markets.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility dropped sharply post-earnings, both across the term structure and skew.</li>
<li>
Why it matters: With Xiaomi’s implied volatility now at historically cheap levels, investors may find opportunities in long-volatility strategies ahead of the next earnings in November.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi (1810 HK) reported 2Q25 results on 19 Aug, beating expectations. This Insight analyzes price reactions in Hong Kong and two overseas markets.

Highlights: Implied volatility dropped sharply post-earnings, both across the term structure and skew.

Why it matters: With Xiaomi’s implied volatility now at historically cheap levels, investors may find opportunities in long-volatility strategies ahead of the next earnings in November.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Recap & Volatility Dynamics

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP).
The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Nissan Motor Placement - Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great

China

Leapmotor is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in the research, development, production, and sales of intelligent electric vehicles (EVs), including sedans, SUVs, and microcars. The company also develops core EV components such as intelligent driving systems, electric drive assemblies, and battery systems. Founded in December 2015, Leapmotor is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Leapmotor (9863 HK)

NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn in an equity offering across HK/US. Global passive trackers will buy around 13% of the offering....

Brian Freitas

NIO (NIO US/9866 HK): An Opportunistically Timed US$1 Billion Raise

While NIO continues to target a break-even in 4Q25 and reduce its cash burn, the valuation is stretched. A history of false dawns and intensifying...

Arun George

Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

Tricky trade. I might've been overly bullish in my initial note. The gross spread (to my implied price) is perhaps ~11%. If not in, I'd be inclined...

David Blennerhassett

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Recap & Volatility Dynamics

Xiaomi beats 2Q25 expectations, triggering a drop in implied volatility and highlighting potential opportunities for investors in long-volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nissan Motor Placement - Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great

Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP). In this note, we run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

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