Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day two weeks ago as markets fell sharply. About two-thirds that this past week as indices rebounded. High-div SOEs seeing buying demand.</li>
<li>The recommended name was short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a>. The stock was -4.9% over two weeks, but the H outperformed its A by 0.55%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day two weeks ago as markets fell sharply. About two-thirds that this past week as indices rebounded. High-div SOEs seeing buying demand.
The recommended name was short Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK). The stock was -4.9% over two weeks, but the H outperformed its A by 0.55%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>With float below 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> should miss inclusion in the index in December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a> is a potential inclusion.</li>
<li>There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Zijin Gold International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s share price has surged by 92% to reach HK$137.4 per share since its IPO price of HK$71.59 per share.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold now trades at a 61% premium to the comps' average EV/EBITDA valuation multiple in 2026. </li>
<li>One could argue that this excessive valuation multiple is a bit too aggressive despite higher growth prospects. Therefore, on a relative valuation basis, we would not chase after Zijin Gold. </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s share price has surged by 92% to reach HK$137.4 per share since its IPO price of HK$71.59 per share.
Zijin Gold now trades at a 61% premium to the comps' average EV/EBITDA valuation multiple in 2026. 
One could argue that this excessive valuation multiple is a bit too aggressive despite higher growth prospects. Therefore, on a relative valuation basis, we would not chase after Zijin Gold. 


Zijin Gold: Less Attractive Relative Valuation Post Share Price Surge

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.</li>
<li>Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 30 September and soared more than 80% from its IPO offer price reaching a market cap of ~$44bn.
Inclusion in Global All-World is expected in March 2026, with an upweight in June 2026 following the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global Standard is expected in May 2026 following the lock-up expiry. Inclusion in February 2026 is not unlikely despite the low float due to price surge.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.</li>
<li>Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.</li>
<li>For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , post the meteoric rise in its share price since listing last week, is now the most expensive gold miner stocks, globally, on an EV/Reserve basis.
Investor expectations of gold prices climbing higher, driven by the yen’s sharp drop, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing anticipation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, are fueling the stock.
For Hong Kong investors, Zijin Gold is the only pure-play, globally diversified gold miner, with expectations of index inclusion and strong demand driving its share price above fundamentals.


Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Hong Kong

Zijin Gold International Company Limited is a Hong Kong-based subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group, primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, processing, and sale of gold and other mineral resources. Its main products include gold bullion, gold alloy, and gold concentrate, with a focus on developing high-quality global gold assets. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zijin Gold International (2259 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound

SOUTHBOUND volumes remain high. Higher in the downdraft than this past week's rebound, but still generically high. Net flows remain consistent even...

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

Zijin Gold debuted on the HKEX on 30 September, saw its market cap soar to $44bn, and is expected to be added to both Global indices by May 2026...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Bullish gold expectations, potential index inclusion, limited free float, and strong investor demand pushes Zijin Gold above fundamentals.

Devi Subhakesan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 24 Oct 2025); Big Flows on Downdraft, Lower Flows on Rebound

SOUTHBOUND volumes remain high. Higher in the downdraft than this past week's rebound, but still generically high. Net flows remain consistent even...

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold: Less Attractive Relative Valuation Post Share Price Surge

​Zijin Gold's share price has surged by 92% since IPO, now trading at a 61% premium to comps' valuation multiple. Despite growth prospects,...

Douglas Kim

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): Global Index Inclusion Post-IPO Price Surge & Lock-Up Expiry

Zijin Gold debuted on the HKEX on 30 September, saw its market cap soar to $44bn, and is expected to be added to both Global indices by May 2026...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Zijin Gold (2259 HK): 100% Surge Since IPO. What Gold Price Is Priced In Now?

Bullish gold expectations, potential index inclusion, limited free float, and strong investor demand pushes Zijin Gold above fundamentals.

Devi Subhakesan

Zijin Gold's share price has surged by 92% since IPO, now trading at a 61% premium to comps' valuation multiple. Despite growth prospects,...