This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Samsung Prefs: 4% Floor Yield Vs 30% Discount—Unsustainable Vs 2020 Levels
- At Friday’s close, common yields ~2.9%, prefs ~4%—the floor for tax benefits. Despite a 4%+ pref yield, the 1P discount remains ~30%, unsustainable versus 2020’s 6–8%.
- The main tail risk—dividend cuts via capital reduction—is unlikely. With KRW 400tn retained earnings and bellwether status, Samsung will likely stick to straightforward earnings-based dividends.
- Even on minimum assumptions, Samsung prefs yield low-4%, with ~30% discount likely unsustainable. Easing memory tightness or catalysts like DeepSeek V4 may trigger aggressive pref discount plays.
2. [Japan M&A] Bain Capital To Buy Growthy Inforich (9338 JP) – High Premium but Low Multiple
- On Friday, Bain Capital announced it would buy ChargeSpot provider Inforich (9338 JP) in an MBO which takes the CEO out of most of his position (and margin debt).
- The price is a strong ¥4,560/share which is a 116% premium. That is a 52-week high. It is not a 53-week high.
- The register may be somewhat open. It’s a high premium, but low multiple on high WACC. Seems light-ish but their moat may not be that high.
3. [Japan M&A/Activism] GS Bumps Raksul, Says Final, Gets One Investor Agreed, Gaslights Minorities
- Today in the PM session, the GS-led consortium bidder for Raksul Inc (4384 JP) extended the Tender Offer and raised its bid from ¥1,710/share to ¥1,900/share.
- “The Tender Offer considered such price to be the maximum and final price that it could offer to the Target Company shareholders.” This looks binary. Done or dead.
- Since there appear to have been no acquisition proposals made to the company, it looks like this is “it.” Activists will be allowed to roll in if they act quickly.
4. Merger Arb Mondays (16 Feb) – ENN, Dongfeng, Inforich, Takara Bio, Raksul, Toyota Ind, Pepper Money
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Inforich, Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP), Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK), Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Pepper Money (PPM AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), BioDlink International (1875 HK), Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP).
5. Inforich (9338 JP): Bain-Sponsored MBO at a 117% Premium, but Is Potentially Light
- Inforich has recommended a Bain-sponsored MBO at JPY4,560, a 116.6% premium to the last close.
- The offer is arguably attractive given the hefty premium and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Also, Inforich’s near-term outlook remains challenging.
- However, the offer is light, as it is below the 52-week high, the IFA forecasts are well below the VISION 2030 plan, and the MBO will benefit from cost front-loading.
6. [Japan M&A/Activism] Murakami Bought, Squeezed, Now Tender Closing
- On 6-Jan-2026, Tosei Corp (8923 JP) and GIC announced a Tender Offer of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), as Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) was disposing of non-operating assets.
- I recommended buying for the possible squeeze as the minimum might be difficult. Murakami started buying and now has 15.9% at last look. I recommended selling. Now it’s VERY difficult.
- The Bidders and Murakami have been strangely quiet. The unit price has fallen back close to terms. The tender ends tomorrow. What To Do?
7. HSCI / HK Connect Inclusion (Mar 2026): Lessons from a Sep 2025 Retrospective Event Study
- Hang Seng Indexes announced the latest Hang Seng Family / HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13
- We reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect round to guide positioning for the upcoming adjustment.
- We highlight the most actionable patterns from the Sep 2025 episode.
8. [Japan M&A] Activist-Pressured Takara Holdings (2531) Takes Out Sub Takara Bio (4974)
- Takara Holdings (2531 JP) has been under pressure from activist Value Act. Friday they announced they would buy out their major listed subsidiary Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
- The premium is at 43+%. That’s pretty good, but the Tender Offer at ¥1,150/share is below the price at which it traded for a decade til two years ago.
- This will almost certainly get done. By itself, it doesn’t seem to be an activist bumpitrage target.
9. MCJ (6670 JP): Ascender Capital Sets an Activist Campaign in Motion
- Today, Ascender Capital issued a PR Times release raising concerns over what it states is a conflicted Bain-sponsored MBO for MCJ Co Ltd (6670 JP).
- Ascender, which first published its concerns on its website on 16 February, highlights four issues with the MBO and seeks a higher price. Most of Ascender’s criticisms are valid.
- Bain’s initial approach will be to wait until the first close approaches (24 March). However, with significant volume trading above the offer, a bump is very likely.
10. Quiddity M&A Guide 2026: South Korea
- This insight is part of a series of M&A guides our Quiddity* team are publishing to aid investors in understanding the rules, parameters, possibilities, and processes when companies conduct M&A.
- The initial guide – Quiddity Korea M&A Guide 2020 – was published in May 2020. Since that time, there have been various new developments.
- This is an update. These insights are designed to be used as a reference. They are not actionable. For a list of Quiddity M&A Guides, click here.
