This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Firmus Technologies (FIRMUS AU) IPO: Lock-Up Schedule to Drive Index Inclusion, Timing & Flow
- Firmus Technologies (FIRMUS AU) has reportedly priced its IPO at A$11/share with an aim to raise A$7.1bn. There is also an overallotment option of another A$0.7bn.
- At the IPO price, Firmus Technologies (FIRMUS AU) will have a full market cap of A$43.5bn (US$30.2bn) and an enterprise value of around US$60bn.
- There could be one global index Fast Entry, with other index inclusions coming in February and March. Size and timing of the passive flows depends on the lock-up schedule.
2. Hynix Could Follow Samsung With Key Disclosure Ahead of Oct 7 MTD Reply
- For memory swing traders, October 7’s MTD reply is the key catalyst, with Hynix potentially front running it by disclosing HBM customer commitments and 2027 capacity allocation.
- Samsung’s HBM capacity messaging strengthens the supply trade off case, while Hynix could go further with customer commitments and allocation data to support an AI driven capacity reallocation narrative.
- For Hynix, hard 2027 HBM capacity numbers or incremental customer commitments would matter far more than another generic capacity update, potentially driving estimates and near term share price volatility higher.
3. Goodbaby (1086 HK): Founder’s Fair Offer
- Goodbaby International (1086 HK), a maker of juvenile products (strollers/pushchairs, child car seats), has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from founder/chairman Song Zhenghuan.
- Song is Offering HK$1.50/share, a 38.9% premium to last close. And a 53.06% premium to the 10-day VWAP (possible news leakage?).
- The Offer price is final. Dividends will be netted. This transaction should be wrapped up in around four months, ahead of the 24th March 2027 long-stop.
4. NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Sell-Off Signals a Stalled Auction, but Downside Looks Limited
- Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)‘s take-private auction has gone quiet. Today’s 13% share-price drop suggests a bidder has walked away or that activists are blocking the deal.
- With no publicly available news to explain the fall, the key issue may be that bidders cannot finance an offer meeting the activists’ asking price.
- Downside if the deal breaks: The base case is flat to −7% (JPY4,150–4,570) from JPY4,459. The bear case, −18% to −26%, would need an activist exit or weak results.
5. Northern Star (NST AU) Rejects Gold Fields (GFI SJ)’s Terms
- Northern Star Resources (NST AU) announced two major downgrades this year, hampered by old hardware, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
- NST made some concessions, mollifying activist Elliott (and the market). For now. I discussed this situation in Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott.
- NST announced this morning that three days prior my note it received, and (has now) summarily rejected a cash/scrip Offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ), or a A$27/share implied price.
6. [Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) – SBI Extends on Zero Minimum. Bumpity Bumpity Bumpity
- When SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced at end-August they were tendering to buy 20% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), they set a short tender (20d) and zero minimum threshold.
- That was a VERY easy target, but I thought they would need to raise the price to get the shares they wanted. The market didn’t seem to agree.
- But SBI just extended the tender. And not because it didn’t meet the minimum. Bumpity bumpity bumpity.
7. [Japan M&A] EQT Raises by ¥1 (+0.272%) To Still Below Maket, But EQT Language Could Speed Things Up
- Yesterday, Kakaku agreed to dissolve its Capital Alliance with KDDI. That was expected. KDDI agreed to sell everything. I expect it is accounting-driven.
- Today, EQT’s ¥3,680 TOB was set to expire so they raised it to ¥3,681 and extended 10 days. Interestingly, their Bidder Announcement document changed content significantly.
- The reference to negotiating with Oasis is gone. Instead, a diatribe against Bain for not being serious about things, bringing a non-feasible bid. There is vaguely threatening language.
8. More Contractor Craziness. The HKEx Needs To Open An Investigation
- In the past two months, Lotus Horizon (6063 HK), WK (2535 HK), and Superland (368 HK) have been subject to conditional/unconditional (massive) takeunders. Expect the same for KFM (3816 HK).
- Now fellow contractor/manufacturer, Trio Industrial Electronics Group (1710 HK), is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Its share price is up ~567% since June-end.
- Not a great look for the exchange. I’ve reached out to the HKEx to get their read.
9. Ingenia Communities (INA AU) Mulls Warburg’s Third Proposal
- Ingenia Communities (INA AU)‘s share price declined ~13% as shareholders didn’t take kindly to its 26th August cash/scrip Offer for real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU).
- Warburg Pincus saw an opportunity, and pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme, on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected).
- A third NBIO, at A$5.25/share, was announced this morning. Ingenia is assessing terms. As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s Offer is conditional on terminating the Peet Scheme.
10. Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech
- For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.
- The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
- The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.
