This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. HSTECH Tactical Outlook Amid Global AI De-Rating and Macro Shocks
- In a recent insight we theorized the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY) was about to bottom and rally. The rally happened as expected, but lasted only 2 weeks.
- After 2 weeks up, the following (last week’s) negative WEEKLY Close could be a potential tactical entry before the rally restarts. Our model signals the next leg could reach 5000.
- Global tech valuation de-rating (Nasdaq AI selloff), geopolitical macro shock (Iran war), and China’s recent domestic economic data are the possible headwinds to our model’s theory.
2. HSI Tactical Outlook: Rally Nearly Over — What Happens Next?
- The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been in a downtrend since the start of 2026. The last recovery rally started in June – now peaking, according to our model.
- Soft Q2 2026 mainland GDP growth and ongoing property sector drag are heightening focus on anticipated stimulus signals from late-July China mainland policy meetings.
- The key question is: was this just a Bear Rally? Or is there a chance that this rally can continue longer after a brief pullback, possibly re-establishing a long-term trend?
3. Alphabet (GOOG) Tactical Post-Earnings Outlook: AI Capex Fears Create Entry Point
- Alphabet (GOOG US) was down -7% on Thursday, post earnings, at the time of writing this insight.
- Despite very positive earnings, investors seemed to react negatively to the widening gap between near-term ROIC and the massive capex trajectory required to maintain AI competitiveness
- Our quantitative model has assessed GOOG is oversold and this could be an opportunity to buy the stock at discounted price.
4. Toyota Motor (7203 JP / TM US): A Tactical Playbook for Downside Protection
- Tactical concerns around tariffs, margins and China support downside protection in Toyota, but converting the thesis into a trade requires analysis of risk profiles, pricing and execution.
- March 2027 put spreads provide protection over several months, while the September alternative offers better liquidity, lower upfront cost and a higher initial delta.
- Strike selection, breakeven levels and market liquidity determine whether the hedge delivers the intended risk profile and can be executed efficiently.
5. SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules
- KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix saw AUM retreat from June highs, but investor interest remains substantial with net flows negative on only four out of 20 trading days.
- Regulators are stepping in: Korea will triple minimum deposit requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 31 July, responding to the surge in AUM, heightened volatility and persistent inflows documented here.
- The inverse ETF is up 64.2% month-to-date as SK hynix declined, yet experiences outflows. Across the segment, ETF flows and daily rebalancing remain relevant for underlying liquidity.
6. SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook After 15% Weekly Drop, Going Into August 6 Earnings Release
- In a previous insight we had correctly called for a reversal, but after a brief 1-week recovery rally Softbank Group (9984 JP) dropped nearly 15% last week.
- Macro concerns regarding the near-term ROI and spending durability of AI infrastructure investments dominate the current narrative (e.g. heightened institutional scrutiny over SoftBank’s $60+ billion total commitment to OpenAI).
- We are witnessing a reversal of the last few months of hysterical buying, but this is no crash, just a high-volatility pullback. A BUY opportunity? Q1 FY2026 earnings will tell…
7. Navigating Honda’s JPY 1.57T EV Loss: Implications of 50% Canadian Tariffs & The MAR27 Option Spread
- As EVs became less profitable in the midst of competition, tough demand, tariffs, and the repeal of US EV incentives, Honda among the most aggressive to wind down EV business.
- Honda remains the strongest when it comes to the motorcycle business, recently growing to record profits buoyed by Asia, South Asia, and South America sales.
- We propose an option strategy in a market where Honda resets its focus to Combustion Engine and HEVs in the auto segment while the motorcycle segment flourishes.
8. Options Weekly: Earnings Fear and Fringe Optimism Split Options Markets This Week
- Sentiment read – Options activity in the week of July 13 was dominated by two opposing forces.
- Heavy put buying clustered around upcoming earnings events, most starkly in FMX and SNA .
- On the other side, ACEL saw near-total call dominance, a rare extreme at the opposite end of the spectrum.
