This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Fed Holds as Hike Debate Grows
- The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75% in a 9-3 vote as hawkish dissents crystallised. Debate centres on whether hikes are needed to restore 2% inflation and credibility.
- Rising real yields and AI capex make financial conditions and productivity payoffs pivotal for any decision to raise rates.
- The five‑year-long inflation overshoot, and counting, keeps hike risk live; cuts are unlikely until disinflation and expectations are firmly anchored.
2. Shaming by Naming Korean Companies with Low PBRs
- On 28 July, the Financial Services Commission and the Korea Exchange announced the detailed criteria for this system of publicly identifying companies with low PBRs.
- This is a “shaming by naming” those companies with low PBRs to address situations where companies with low PBRs neglect efforts to boost shareholder value by publicly identifying them.
- I provide a list of 150 stocks in KOSPI that could be included in this list.
3. Credit Boom Before Burnham’s Burn
- A resurgence in the UK’s monetary data for June built on strength from policy overly accommodating the energy shock. Wage inflation has dominated higher lending rates.
- Recent lending growth is trending up by 6-8% on an annualised basis, devaluing the currency’s purchasing power to a point unlikely to be consistent with the CPI target.
- Fear of higher tax rates should slow loan demand, while the potential abolition of stamp duty should encourage transaction delays. We still see one BoE rate hike in September.
4. The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 2026)
- The Hong Kong market has seen a rebound in July, while North Asian markets declined sharply as the global AI/semiconductor sectors de-rated.
- The financials sector has outperformed over the last 8 weeks, while the tech sector has shown increased strength and momentum.
- MGM China (2282 HK) share price rebounded over the last week before its August Q226 earnings announcement. The company has increased its share of the mass-market gaming in Macau.
5. BoE: Dual Drift As Doves Bed In
- The MPC’s 6-3 vote matched our relatively hawkish view, but the numerical drift toward hiking was more than matched by a dovish drift among the broader committee.
- Most members are patiently awaiting proof of second-round effects before considering a move, making them reactive, not proactive, and compounding inflation risks.
- Our conviction in a persistently excessive UK inflation outlook is increased, but the majority’s reaction function delays a still-likely rate hike to at least November.
6. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (July 2026)
- The Hong Kong market bounced off its long-term support levels in June and has outperformed the region in July, benefiting from rotational and southbound buying.
- In a positive sign, the financials sector has rallied this month and is the second-best-performing sector YTD at +11%. Value and dividend factors continue to perform well.
- Youran Dairy (9858 HK) had a Descending Trendline Breakout after the company announced that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH) acquired a significant stake in the company.
7. Indonesia Economics: Pressures Are Accumulating After Short-Term Reprieve
- Markets have stabilised since mid-June as Hormuz de-escalation and domestic policy repair buy Indonesia additional time, even as the underlying credibility deficit remains unresolved.
- With external conditions now re-entering a more dangerous phase, pressure is growing both on Indonesia’s trade balance and domestic demand. Policy buffers are also thinner.
- The institutional guardrails against policy mistakes have also been degraded. Intensifying intra-elite infighting also severely compromises the already-febrile business climate.
8. Sentiment Matters: The Biggest Consensus Longs and Shorts
- Technology, US equities and Brazil are now consensus longs—but where has optimism become most vulnerable?
- CAD, sovereign bonds and Consumer Discretionary are deeply unpopular. Which offers the clearest contrarian opportunity?
- Sentiment extremes are not automatic signals. Momentum and narrative vulnerabilities help separate crowded trades from genuine opportunities.
9. Asian Equities: Relentless Foreign Selling in Asia; Most of the Leading Markets Are Now Oversold
- In July foreigners sold US$34.8bn in Asia, the third worst in recent times, after March (US$69.9bn selling) and June (US$55.8bn). Taiwan (US$25.2bn) was the most sold, followed by Korea (US$11.3bn).
- India was bought (US$1.62bn), reversing last four month’s trend. Indonesia and Thailand’s July data is awaited. Till June, Thailand (+889m) is the only market bought this year. Indonesia sold (US$4.27bn).
- Our proprietary indicator of 6-monthly cumulative trade as proportion of market cap indicates Korea, India, Indonesia are oversold. Taiwan nearly there. FIIs beginning to buy India, correcting the oversold stance.
10. CX Daily: Billionaire Founder of Chinese Broker Futu Faces His Toughest Test
- In Profile: Billionaire Founder of Chinese Broker Futu Faces His Toughest Test From an early engineer at Tencent Holdings Ltd. to the billionaire founder of Futu Holdings Ltd., Li Hua built one of China’s most prominent online brokerages.
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Now, the cross-border business model that powered Futu’s rise has exposed the 49-year-old entrepreneur to the most serious regulatory and legal challenge of his career.
- A third defendant seeking to unfreeze assets in a more than $100 million U.S. insider trading lawsuit shares a name with an investor whose Hong Kong corporate takeover collapsed days after a U.S. court order.
