This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. WEEKLY Tactical Recap: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Nikkei 225, CATL, Tokyo Electron, Gold, Oil
- Our WEEKLY tactical global macro recap/analysis for several markets and stocks we track, grouped by sector.
- We apply our quantitative models to each instrument’s trend, to determine which stocks/markets are just starting a trend, are in the middle of it, or are about to end it.
- Most overbought: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Gold and Oil. Most oversold: NetEase Cloud M,Nikkei 225,Hitachi, Broadcom
2. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Investors Exit into the August Rally
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 7.2% in August MTD, but combined 2x leveraged ETF AUM fell 3.2% to KRW 3.1tn.
- Cumulative net outflows reached KRW 534bn MTD, with all leveraged ETFs recording reductions in units outstanding.
- Despite Samsung Electronics falling 8.3% since launch, the 2x inverse ETF has lost 56.4%, reducing its AUM to approximately KRW 15bn.
3. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off
- This is a brief update to our recent Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) insight posted last week.
- The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): our models flashed a overbought/sell signal.
- On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.
4. Alibaba (9988 HK): 9% Placement Drop Creates Short-Put Setup
- Alibaba (9988 HK) dropped 9.4% following its HKD 80bn placement, although the capital raising represents only 3.6% of market capitalisation and will fund AI investment.
- One-Month implied volatility stands at 42.3%, in its 67th percentile, creating elevated—but not extreme—premium income opportunities.
- September short puts offer premiums ranging from 1.3% to 4.1%, with lower strikes providing greater downside protection and higher strikes offering greater tactical returns.
5. TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook Post-NVDA Earnings
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) has been consolidating in a range for the past month, reflecting institutional positioning neutrality and volatility compression ahead of the NVDA earnings catalyst event.
- Market participants have been withholding directional capital commitments pending direct operational confirmation of Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture ramp speed, hyperscaler capex durability, and TSMC’s CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) yield trajectories.
- By the time this insight is published NVDA’s earnings will be out: this insight looks at tactical profit targets/support zones that could be reached by TSMC after the guidance.
6. NVDA Pre-Earnings Tactical Positioning
- NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings print are scheduled post-close on August 26. The stock has pulled back over the past two weeks, trading at 211 at the moment of writing this.
- The company has beaten estimates in recent consecutive quarters only to face mild sell-offs, creating a high bar where a standard beat-and-raise is already priced in.
- The current pullback may be an opportunity to buy at discounted price, this is an asymmetrical risk trade, but there are some risks discussed in the inside.
7. Alibaba (BABA US): Trading the Placement Dip with US Options
- Alibaba (BABA US) dropped 8.6% following its USD 10.2bn placement, although the capital raising represents only 3.6% of market capitalization and will fund AI investment.
- One-Month implied volatility stands at 42.3%, in its 61st percentile, creating elevated—but not extreme—premium income opportunities.
- September short puts offer premiums ranging from 1.6% (OTM) to 3.7% (ATM), with lower strikes providing greater downside protection and higher strikes offering greater tactical returns.
8. Ethos Limited: From Luxury Retailer To Brand Owner & Moving into Jewellery
- Ethos has crossed 100 boutiques, Q1 FY27 revenue grew 33.3%, and owned brand Favre Leuba is entering its commercial scale-up phase.
- Owned and exclusive brands can offer better economics, differentiation and global optionality than conventional authorised retail.
- The thesis is no longer only store-led growth; investors must separately value retail execution and the risk-adjusted option value of brand ownership.
9. AMZN US Tactical Entry Point As the Economics of AI-Driven Demand Emerge
- 57% of Alexa AI users purchased products they previously did not know existed, suggesting agentic AI can discover customer needs and generate new purchase opportunities.
- Amazon is betting heavily on this new economics, expecting to generate significant future monetization. The stock’s rally could go considerably higher according to our model.
- AI is becoming revenue-generating infrastructure: AWS revenue grew 37% to $42B, showing Amazon’s enormous AI investments can become productive assets that generate substantial new revenue rather than simply increase costs.
10. Options Weekly: Bears Hedge, Bulls Chase: A Split Market in Options
- Options markets sent conflicting signals this week.
- Defensive put-buying surged across global financials, industrials, and high-momentum names.
- At the same time, aggressive call-buying dominated ETF flows, cybersecurity, and select recovery plays.
