Equity Bottom-Up

• TSMC offered a surprisingly robust outlook for the current quarter with revenues expected to rise 13% QoQ to $28.8 billion at the midpoint, their highest ever quarterly revenue.
• No change to the previous full year 2025 guidance of mid-20% growth in US$ terms
• It’s likely too early to see the full impact of tariffs and further China restrictions in TSMC’s outlook, but the second half will likely be a different story

• Sartorius AG (SRT GR) reported 21% YoY increase in net profit for 1Q25 on 7% YoY growth in sales. Growth was driven by Bioprocessing Solutions division, which facilitates biopharma manufacturing.
• The company expects sales to increase by ~6%, with EBITDA margin of 29–30% (2024: 28.0%) for 2025. Bioprocess Solutions division is projected to grow ~7% in 2025.
• With Sartorius reporting a strong 1Q25 result, we are upbeat on the 1Q25 performance as well as near-term growth prospects of two major biopharma CDMO players, Samsung Biologics and Lonza.

• We remain impressed with Hyundai Rotem’s aggressive new orders for defense and railway systems.
• Defense exports as a percentage of total sales increased from 0% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2022, 19% in 2023, and 36.4% in 2024.
• Hyundai Rotem had an order backlog of 14.1 trillion won at the end of 2024. Order backlog/sales ratio was 3.2x in 2024. 

• Morgan Stanley purchases 50% stake in $380M Frasers Australian warehouse portfolio, expanding its real estate holdings.
• CapitaLand seeks $380M China Mall REIT listing in Shanghai, showing confidence in China’s retail market.
• China experiences moderate home price growth in March, with some cities showing signs of recovery after recent slowdowns.

• Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
• TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
• With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

• Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
• With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
• Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

• Mani Inc (7730 JP) H1FY25 revenue rose 6.5% YoY, mainly driven by surgical segment, eyeless needles segment, while margins remained under pressure.
• Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Expecting Yen appreciation against the USD, the company expects just mid-single-digit sales and operating income growth for FY25.
• Mani shares plunged 5% since it published its H1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

• Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
• Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.

• Grab hosted “GrabX” in Singapore and online to showcase a range of AI-driven product offerings that promise to be future growth drivers for the company.
• GrabFood For One and Shared Saver both have the potential to attract significant new business, but there was also the launch of AI-assistant Maya for Merchants to drive orders. 
• Additionally, Grab Unlimited continues to grow and be transformed into a fully-fledged loyalty program. Valuations are attractive, and Grab is set to make a net profit this year.

• 2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
• Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
• The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 

• Wintermar Offshore Marine booked a strong set of FY2024, confirming the ongoing recovery of the offshore oil & gas shipping segment and especially demand for higher-tier vessels.
• The company continues to build its fleet with several vessels coming on stream in FY2025 and FY2026, driven by optimism around ongoing investments in offshore oil & gas in Indonesia. 
• Wintermar Offshore Marine intends to sell its low-tier vessels and invest in more high-tier vessels this year, helping to drive future growth. 

• I recently visited Inspire Entertainment Resort in Yeongjeongdo, Korea with my family. 
• Overall, I was impressed with its modern, clean facilities, but despite its large size, there was a relative emptiness to the place that made it feel underutilized.
• The management rights of Inspire Resort were transferred to Bain Capital from Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment (MGE) in February 2025.

• Halliburton’s Q1 revenue is set to drop 9.1% YoY, with EPS down 21.1%, driven by soft North American activity and weak oil prices.
• Halliburton has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and peers SLB and Baker Hughes, weighed down by its greater U.S. shale exposure and rising input costs.
• Despite near-term headwinds, analysts retain a “Buy” rating on Halliburton, citing strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet, and strategic investments.

• We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov’t subsidies.
• We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. 
• We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.

• Last year was transformational for KITT, with its strategy shifting to commercializing its technology from its prior focus on research and development.
• The company expects 2025 “will continue to be a year of change.”
• On the earnings call and callback, our focus was on sizing the opportunity, the outlook for the year given long lead times and seasonality in the business, and the competitive landscape.

• It has stable free cash flow generating business which involves own marketing own brands, distributing consumer and healthcare products in Malaysia
• The company has double digit ROE and trades below Book Value per Share
• Trades at significantly lower  valuations to its parent and  other Malaysian consumer stocks

• In this edition: • Heineken | main takeaways earnings call • Basic-Fit | solid start of the year – reiterates FY25 guidance – secures EUR 200m RCF • InPost | acquisition of Yodel a real opportunity • Sligro Food Group | modest revenue growth when adjusted for exceptionals

• The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin means the brand portfolio strategy still works.
• The financial potential is NOT as weak as the 2024 result looks.
• We conclude an upside of 40% and a price target of HK$122 for the next twelve months.

• LHN Group intends to list Coliwoo Co-Living on SGX, expanding their presence in the real estate market.
• C&W reports a significant 42% drop in office rents in Hong Kong, reflecting the changing landscape post-Q1 2019.
• PGIM Real Estate promotes David Fassbender to Deputy Head of APAC, indicating a shift in leadership within the company.

• Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS)’s share price has been moving higher on the back of higher dividends and a beneficiary of the potential economic co-operations between North and South Korea.
• Hyundai Elevator currently has a dividend yield of 8%, which is one of the highest dividend yields among Korean companies with more than 2 trillion won in market cap.
• There have been some initial discussions about increased economic co-operation between North and South Korea. Hyundai Elevator is a key beneficiary in such a scenario. 

• TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
• ChipMOS: +3.2% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread: Local Shares’ Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs
• CHT: +1.3% Premium; Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread; ADR Short Interest at Multi-Year Highs

• Stable and free cash flow generating business available at attractive price
• Trades below book with double digit ROE and at Significant discount to its parent valuation
• Priced towards low end of historical PE and P/B ( similar to COVID valuations)

• SEBI has launched a forensic investigation into Gensol Engineering Ltd. (GEL), highlighting grave concerns around corporate governance, fund misuse, and misleading disclosures
• What began as a story of meteoric financial growth has now unfolded into a cautionary tale of alleged fund diversion, shady preferential allotments, and sharp promoter decline.
• This research note delves into the key issues identified by SEBI, the financial patterns that triggered scrutiny, and the implications for stakeholders.

• SAMHI Hotels (SAMHI IN) witnessing a 9-10% top-line growth attributed to same-store Average Room Rate (ARR) growth and robust occupancy trend across all the segments.     
• Company is set to generate a top line of INR 3.2-3.5bn pa post stabilization in 2 years with an increase of 532 keys across three hotels.
• Company is expecting 35% revenue growth in next 3-4 years by repositioning the ACIC portfolio under the Marriott Tribute & Courtyard brands and opening new hotels like W& Westin Tribute. 

• China East Education (667 HK) remains well-positioned in the government’s support of vocational education, despite its YTD outperformance.
• Higher average tuition per student, better cost control, accelerating growth in the “Fashion and Beauty” segment,  and new course introduction are the main profit drivers.
• Net cash equals 17.2% of the share price, while other peers are struggling with debt repayment. Coupled with stronger earnings CAGR, its premium PERs are justified.

• Schlumberger’s Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 7.6% QoQ, while its EPS is anticipated to fall by 19.6%, marking the lowest EPS in five quarters.
• SLB has underperformed the S&P 500, XLE, and WTI futures since 2024, pressured by weak oil prices, lower drilling activity, and rising costs from tariff-related headwinds.
• Despite weaker return ratios in Q4 2024 and macro uncertainty, SLB maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus, backed by its global presence, digital expansion, and strong cash flow.

• Scale-Up in Mining: Iron ore capacity ramped up to 3.86 MTPA with visibility to reach 4.36 MTPA, positioning mining as a high-margin cash engine.
• Forward Integration via Arjas Acquisition: Strategic acquisition of Arjas Steel marks a shift from merchant mining to integrated steel production, with embedded OEM relationships and SBQ focus.
• Valuation Reset in Progress: Despite structural upgrades, the stock trades at ~8x EV/EBITDA, offering a rerating opportunity as steel margins expand and loss-making verticals normalise.

• In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions. 
• We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government. 
• Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.

• Total operating revenue for FY02/25 was JPY1.03tn, up 8.5% YoY, with operating profit at JPY57.5bn, up 25.2%.
• Domestic and Overseas Department Stores, along with Finance and Contract and Design segments, drove YoY revenue and profit growth.
• FY02/26 forecast anticipates revenue and profit growth, led by Domestic and Overseas Department Store segments, despite some segment challenges.

• Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) work on Intel Corp (INTC US)‘s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what’s the reasoning behind this?
• Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  

• A “Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)” pair trade should benefit from the more resilient intra-Asia trade and capture the tariff-induced challenges on Trans-Pacific trade. 
• OOIL derived 28.3% of its volume and 38.7% of its revenue from the Trans-Pacific route in 1Q25. Instead, SITC generated 100% of its revenue from the Asian market.
• While OOIL’s 0.7x P/B is cheaper than SITC’s 2.5x, its FY25 ROE of 10.6% is lower than SITC’s 34.6%. SITC’s dividend yield is also trending up, against OOIL’s down.

• The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.
• Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.
• Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.

• Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion
• The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago
• Altera’s CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell

• MOIL is India’s largest manganese ore producer, contributing over 50% of the country’s production. Its dominant position provides a competitive advantage in meeting domestic demand.
• Planned a capex of Rs24 billion until FY30. This investment will support brownfield expansions, greenfield projects, and modernization efforts, including shaft-sinking projects at Balaghat and Gumgaon mines.
• Valuations: Trades at a marginal premium to historic valuations. Debt-free balance sheet, 25yr+ mine life gives confidence over LT execution of expansion plans.

• The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)  reported Q4 2024 revenues/profits of 11.8%/23.5% YoY. Based on current trends, they provided a  outlook for FY25.
• For FY24, the company reported 13.6%/21.3% YoY revenue/profit growth, led by a 14% YoY expansion in volumes. The company declared a 0.12 peso/share dividend (~4.7% dividend yield).
• Trading at 10.6x FY24 PE, net cash, >20% ROE, and a 4.7%  dividend yield based on a 50% payout is a structural play on the premiumization of alcohol consumption.

• Hong Kong office floor in Admiralty sells at a 17-year low, reflecting challenging market conditions in the region.
• Brookfield strengthens APAC logistics presence with $588M NZ joint venture, highlighting growth opportunities in the sector.
• Manulife IM acquires Sydney Logistics Park from KKR and Centennial for $35M, expanding their real estate portfolio in Australia.

• Associated British Foods (ABF) has reported a robust financial performance for the 52 weeks ending 14th September 2024, highlighted by substantial profit and cash flow improvements across its diversified portfolio.
• Operating profit witnessed a 38% increase, with adjusted earnings per share climbing by 39%.
• Cash generation rose to GBP 1.4 billion, marking an increase of GBP 1.1 billion from the previous year, which signifies positive operational and financial strides.

• Rapid changes in US’s tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI’s forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
• Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
• Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.

• Q1 revenue and EBITDA missed expectations, with slowing growth in key business segment and corporate customer adds.
• Macroeconomic risks, including US tariffs, may be weighing on business confidence and new customer acquisition.
• Valuation now looks attractive, trading at a steep discount to global peers despite similar fundamentals.

• Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ) is Indonesia’s largest steel pipe manufacturer with over 2,000 customers and exposure across diverse sectors, including infrastructure, autos, and Oil & Gas. 
• The company looks set to book strong growth in revenues and profits over the next 3 years, driven by increased capacity and improving product mix towards higher value products. 
• SPINDO has been shifting towards longer duration funding and reducing interest costs. Valuations are attractive on a 3x FY2025E PER, with a forecast dividend yield of 5%.

• We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
• Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
• While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.

• Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT) is struggling with expansion plans, decelerated revenue growth, and unfavorable revenue mix. 2024 revenue growth of 4% is significant deterioration from 17% reported in 2023.
• China business remained challenging. In 2024, revenue from China 22% YoY to NT$594M.  Both the number of partnered hospitals and self-operated clinics/hospitals in China decreased during 2024.
• Through the first three months of 2025, revenue growth has not shown any sign of improvement. 1Q25 revenue grew just 5% YoY to NT$1,123M.

• Amgen is rapidly positioning itself as a formidable player in the obesity drug market, a sector that has witnessed explosive growth due to the popularity of GLP-1 based therapies from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
• The company’s investigational drug MariTide is generating significant interest following promising Phase II results showing up to 20% weight loss with monthly dosing.
• With two Phase III trials now underway—targeting both diabetic and non-diabetic patients—Amgen is accelerating its strategy to gain a slice of what analysts forecast to be a $100 billion market by 2030.

• SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
• Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
• SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.

• General Motors is facing turbulent headwinds in 2025, driven primarily by a resurgent trade war between the U.S. and Canada.
• The Detroit automaker recently suspended production at its BrightDrop electric vehicle (EV) plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, triggering nearly 500 indefinite layoffs and marking a significant blow to Canada’s already struggling auto sector.
• This move comes amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on foreign-made cars, which has forced Canada to retaliate with its own 25% duties on U.S.-built vehicles.

• Emperor Group is consolidating a site in Sai Ying Pun for a 62-home project in Hong Kong, promising a significant development.
• EQT has appointed a former KKR executive to take charge of their real estate operations in Japan, signaling a strategic move.
• A prominent mainland tycoon has sold a condo in The Peak for $66 million, marking a significant transaction in the luxury property market.

• Q1 was challenging. However, in the two weeks since Mar 31, the world has changed, owing to an intense realignment of global trade policies.
• This has swiftly aligned markets more with Upslope’s portfolio and approach.
• April-to-date performance1 has been strong (approx. +7%), leaving the Fund +2% YTD (vs. -12% for the S&P Midcap 400).

• TSMC reported March 2025 revenues of NT$285.96 billion, up 10% MoM and up 46.5% YoY.
• Revenue for January through March 2025 totaled NT$839.25 billion, an increase of 41.6% YoY.
• At the forecasted exchange rate of NT$32.8 to the US$, this translates into Q125 revenues of $25.58 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint of $25.4 billion

• TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
• Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
• PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 

• Trump’s administration will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals. Chinese API companies will be hit the most. Pharmaceutical companies that mainly focus on domestic market could be better investment options.
• NSCEB released “Changing the Future of Biotechnology”, among which WuXi AppTec was named again. Chinese CXO’s performance this year could be lower than expected due to geopolitical conflicts.
• RemeGen’s 2024 results improved, but concerns remain due to its  “disorganized” pipeline layout and uncompetitive products. The reasonable market value of Remegen is about RMB10 billion to RMB15 billion.

• Nippon Parking Development (2353 JP — US$477 million) — also known as “NPD” — is a Japanese lessor of parking spaces and an operator of ski resorts and theme parks.

• It’s the brainchild of lifelong entrepreneur Kazuhisa Tatsumi, who literally built the company in his garage in the early 1990s.

• In Japan, developers are generally required to build 1/3 parking space per 100 square meters of floor area for any large building. This is known as “legally mandated parking space”.

• Adastria (soon to be And ST) is Japan’s biggest multi-chain clothing retailer and fourth largest overall.  
• As well as investing in core brands like Global Work, the former wholesaler is now expanding through new segments – including Forever 21 despite its US bankruptcy
• In a sign of further diversification, it will now move into the very buoyant outdoor market having just acquired the Asian rights to UK outdoor brand, Karrimor.

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has announced that total revenue in Q3 increased 15% to $8.1m, with higher-margin SaaS (Software as a Service) revenue making up 50% of the total.
• SaaS revenue grew 60% in the quarter on the previous corresponding period (pcp) to $4m and is tracking at $16m on an annualised basis.

• Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
• This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
• The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.

• Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported double digit revenue growth in FY25 on the back of 16% YoY growth in Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
• Rx business revenues grew 5% YoY as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch, Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
• Hisamitsu expects FY26 revenue to be ¥165B, up 6% YoY, driven by new products, with net profit growth to decelerate on higher cost.

• We provide the short selling data analysis of the Korean stock market including the top 20 stocks in KOSPI with the highest short interest ratios in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively. 
• There have been noticeable shorting on the Ecopro Group companies and other key names in the rechargeable battery sector including Posco Future M, L&F, and SK IE Technology. 
• Shorting has generally worked for KOSDAQ names with higher short interest ratios but not for KOSPI names in the past two weeks. 

• Paytm (PAYTM IN) is pivoting post-regulatory setbacks with board overhaul, license reapplications, and focus on high-margin verticals like lending and merchant services.
• Triggers like MDR revival, PPBL embargo removal, and PA license approval could significantly lift monetization, improve take rates, and stabilize investor sentiment.
• While competition is stiff, structural improvements and cost controls position Paytm for a profitable rebound, making it a potential re-rating candidate in FY26.

• Apple Inc. is facing one of the most turbulent moments in its recent history.
• Over the past week, the company has lost over $700 billion in market capitalization, relinquished its crown as the most valuable U.S. company to Microsoft, and seen its shares plummet by 23% across four trading sessions.
• The sell-off comes on the back of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, with President Donald Trump introducing a 125% tariff on Chinese imports—directly impacting Apple’s China-dependent supply chain.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
• Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

• AI Nose for healthcare, industrials, and robotics. Ainos is digitizing smell with AI Nose to capture airborne chemical signatures, using AI-powered processes to immediately classify and identify scents in any environment.
• Initially focused on healthcare, Ainos is developing a women’s health test, Ainos Flora with AI Nose, in addition to an elderly care project with Japanese partners to assist caregivers in monitoring seniors.
• Ainos recently entered partnerships with ugo and ASE, expanding AI Nose development to robotics and industrial applications.

In FY24, Ocean Wilsons increased its earnings per share and dividend by 7% and more than 40%, respectively. 2024 was a seismic year for the company as it agreed to sell its 56% holding in Wilson Sons. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 40% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p/share. Given the pending disposal, we are withdrawing our forecasts.

• Harley-Davidson is navigating a critical crossroads as it searches for a new CEO to replace Jochen Zeitz, who recently announced plans to retire after five years at the helm.
• This leadership transition comes at a precarious time for the iconic motorcycle brand, which is grappling with a sustained decline in sales, intensifying macroeconomic pressures, and the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs—particularly from the European Union.
• In 2024, global retail sales dropped by 7%, with international sales falling a steep 13%, reflecting a broader downturn in discretionary spending.

• Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
• The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
• Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

• Compass Group PLC has released its full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance with a 16% increase in operating profit and an 11% growth in organic revenue.
• The company reported a margin progression of 30 basis points, taking it to 7.1%.
• This has been complemented by a net new business growth of 4.2%, further gaining momentum in the second half of the year.

• What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
• • The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
• • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

• 1H FY08/25 revenue increased 22.7% YoY to JPY186.8bn, with progress toward full-year forecast at 51.9%.
• Operating profit rose 5.0% YoY to JPY16.6bn, with all segments showing growth except Communications & Energy.
• Subscriber count for U-NEXT increased by 150,000, while former Paravi subscribers declined by 20,000 in 1H FY08/25.

• Strong Q2 beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY and OP jumped 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China’s continued weakness.
• Guidance tweak: FY business profit raised to ¥540bn, though H2 expectations effectively lowered due to anticipated US tariff impact.
• US expansion continues: 69 stores now open; North America accounts for 7.5% of sales, with future margin mitigation via supply chain shifts and EU/Asia growth.

• Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2015.  
• We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
• The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  

• PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
• ~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
• There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.

• BYD reported C1Q25 net profit up 86%-119% YoY, with the midpoint exceeds our estimate/consensus by 12%/20%.
• We believe this driven by better ASP mix of its products, among other factors;
• We believe a possible China-EU deal on EV market access can be positive for BYD. We raise the TP to HK$400 and place BYD back to TOB BUY.

• The EU is negotiating with India to remove the 100% import duty on fully built cars under FTA.
• Warburg Pincus plans to lead a INR600 – 800 crore rights issue to rescue troubled Fusion Micro Finance (FUSION IN).
• PAG has hired JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley to sell its INR 2.2k crore controlling stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN). 

• Chord Energy reported a transformational year in 2024, significantly strengthened by its strategic combination with Enerplus.
• This merger, completed in May 2024, positioned the company as a leading entity in the Williston Basin.
• The integration was marked by operational and corporate synergies, enhancing Chord Energy’s scale and efficiency.

• Merit Medical Systems reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, displaying notable revenue and profit growth.
• The company recorded total revenue of $355.2 million for Q4, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year on a GAAP basis and 10% on a constant currency basis.
• This exceeded Merit Medical’s growth expectations, which it had projected at 6% to 9%.

• Haemonetics Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, indicating both strengths and challenges within its various business segments.
• The company achieved a revenue of $349 million, reflecting a 4% increase on a reported basis but remaining flat organically.
• Adjusted earnings per share improved by 14% to $1.19.

• MSC Industrial Supply reported a mixed set of results for its fiscal second quarter of 2025.
• The company faced challenges in the current quarter, underscored by a decline in average daily sales by 4.7% year-over-year, indicating a soft demand environment.
• This decline, however, showed slight improvements towards the end of the quarter, with January and February outperforming historical trends.

• Noble Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided a comprehensive overview of its operational and financial performance while highlighting key strategic initiatives and market outlook.
• The company recently completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore, enhancing its positioning in the deepwater drilling market.
• This integration is progressing well, with $50 million of the targeted $100 million synergies already realized, reflecting operational efficiencies.