India

In today’s briefing:

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report
Crizac (CRIZ:NS). Sell into the Aftermarket.
SBI Possible US$3bn QIP – Will Be One of the Largest Fund Raisings in India, Last One Didn’t Do Well
Low-Risk, High Stakes: India Sharpens Rubber EUDR Compliance Focus
India Insider Buying – June ’25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.
Adani Power Adds 600 MW—One Step Closer to 30 GW
Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Tata Motors – JLR Q1FY26 Weakness

Is Vedanta Running a Ponzi Scheme? Deep Dive into Findings of Shortseller Report

A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme.
The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial & operational strength of Vedanta
Dividend & delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.

Crizac (CRIZ:NS). Sell into the Aftermarket.

By Edward Slade

Crizac has had a successful IPO, pricing at 28x PE.
Before any aftermarket premium, the company is already at a significant valuation premium to other global education stocks.
CRIZ has too many risks to justify a high rating. 95% of revenues come from India-UK student placement, aggregating applications for 10,362 agents.

SBI Possible US$3bn QIP – Will Be One of the Largest Fund Raisings in India, Last One Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

As per news reports and company filings, State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) could soon look to raise around US$3bn (INR250bn) via a QIP.
SBI raised around US$2.3bn (INR150bn) in 2017, but the deal didn’t end up doing well.
In this note, we will talk about the possible fund raising and other deal dynamics.

Low-Risk, High Stakes: India Sharpens Rubber EUDR Compliance Focus

By Vinod Nedumudy

Rubber Board undertakes nationwide EUDR sensitization drives
Geo-mapping and traceability systems scaled up across states
Low-risk status to come under EU review in 2026

India Insider Buying – June ’25: Strong Activity in Small Caps, Limited Participation in Large Caps.

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025, highlighting continued conviction among promoters, directors, and trusts.
While, there were fewer companies with market cap above USD 1 bn which saw insider buying, this number was significantly higher (35 count) in smaller names.
Companies which have zoomed after the insider purchases include – LT Foods Ltd (LTFO IN) (+10%), Valor Estate (+11%). In smaller names – Man Industries (India) (MAN IN) (+88%)

Adani Power Adds 600 MW—One Step Closer to 30 GW

Adds 600 MW operational capacity in Maharashtra, acquired via CIRP at ₹6.67 crore/MW.
Supports Adani’s goal to reach 30,670 MW by FY2030 through scale-driven, base-load expansion.
Stock trades at ~12x forward P/E—undervalued given 70% capacity growth and strong operating leverage.

Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd (1880671D IN) (TCAIL) is looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, Citi, Axis, HSBC.
TCAIL designs and manufactures clean air, powertrain, and suspension solutions for Indian OEMs, export markets, and the aftermarket, serving PVs, CVs, OHs, and industrial applications.
According to the CRISIL Report, TCAIL was the largest supplier of Clean Air Solutions to Indian commercial truck (CT) OEMs with a 60% market share in FY24.

Tata Motors – JLR Q1FY26 Weakness

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Q1FY26 Decline: JLR’s Q1FY26 wholesale volumes dropped 10.7% YoY and 21.7% QoQ, signaling a tougher-than-expected environment amid planned model transitions and tariff shocks.
US Tariffs & Jaguar Phase-Out Drag Down Sales:Pause in US shipments post-April’25 and wind-down of legacy Jaguar models led to sharp volume contraction in key markets, particularly UK and North-America.
Luxury Mix Strong, but Growth Uncertain:While 77.2% of Q1FY26 volumes came from high-margin models (Range Rover/Defender),growing reliance on a few nameplates adds concentration risk in a sluggish global macro environment

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Jul 10

Daily Brief India: Travel Food Services Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Travel Food Services IPO: Capitalizing on the Global Airport F&B Boom

Travel Food Services IPO: Capitalizing on the Global Airport F&B Boom

Travel Food Services leads India’s airport QSR sector with a 24% market share and expands internationally through strategic partnerships, capitalizing on the growing global travel F&B market.
With a debt-free balance sheet and robust margins, TFS ensures scalable growth through strategic joint ventures and partnerships, minimizing capital expenditure while expanding operations.
With its diverse brand portfolio and a presence in high-traffic airports across India and abroad. The company’s expansion into new airports ensures sustained growth in the travel food services sector.

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Jul 09

Daily Brief India: Adani Enterprises, NSDL, Tata Motors ADR, Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd, Rayzon Solar Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

The Adani Factor: Creating India’s Biggest PVC Capacity
NSDL IPO: The Bull Case
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN): All That Cheap Is Not Always Value Buying Opportunity
Rayzon Solar Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

The Adani Factor: Creating India’s Biggest PVC Capacity

India’s PVC market faces high import dependency, reaching 63% in FY25, due to stagnant domestic capacity and a widening 3 MMT demand-supply gap.
Adani and Reliance plan 2.5 MTPA domestic capacity expansion, bolstering production to reduce import reliance.
This aims to cut import dependency from 63% to under 30% by FY27, narrowing the gap to 1.4 MMT, enhancing domestic profitability.

NSDL IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.
The depository market in India is a duopoly with high barriers to entry as each of the current depositories is promoted by large institutions.
The bull case rests on outperforming its key peer on several metrics, the core business’s solid performance, signs of margin recovery, cash generation, and no debt.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Motors, Nissan Motor
UST yields rose yesterday, ahead of an auction cycle beginning today. The UST curve bear steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 1 bp to 3.90%, while that on the 10Y UST climbed 3 bps to 4.38%.
Equities retreated from record high levels after US President Donald Trump unveiled his tariff plans for countries that have yet to secure a trade deal with Washington. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 6,230, while the Nasdaq was down 0.9% at 20,413.

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN): All That Cheap Is Not Always Value Buying Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN) reported revenue growth of 12% over the last two years, which is on the lower side compared to the peers.
Capacity constraint is the major setback. Until the company adds new greenfield capacity, there will be no significant change in volume. Near-term growth expectation is subdued.
Compared to peers, NHL is a late mover in capacity expansion. Significant greenfield expansion is scheduled to complete in FY28, through which nearly 1,100 beds will be added.

Rayzon Solar Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Rayzon Solar Ltd (0127839D IN) (RSL) is looking to raise about US$175m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are SBI, Ambit, IIFL.
RSL, established in 2017 as M/s Rayzon Green Energies, manufactures and sells Mono PERC, TOPCon, and bifacial solar PV modules for utility, C&I, and residential markets.
According to the CRISIL Report, RSL is among the top 10 solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturers in India, with an installed capacity of 6.00 GW as of Mar 25.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief India: Travel Food Services Ltd, Wns Holdings Ltd Adr, Protean, Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands, Borosil Renewables and more

In today’s briefing:

Travel Food Services: $250M OFS, Niche Travel QSR but Valuations Seem Full Amidst near Term Weakness
Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality
Protean EGov: Navigating the PAN 2.0 Headwind and Charting a Diversified Future
Travel Food Services IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation
Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands (ABLBL IN) | A Sportswear Wildcard
Why Borosil Renewables’ Exit from GMB Is a Clear Win for the Company?

Travel Food Services: $250M OFS, Niche Travel QSR but Valuations Seem Full Amidst near Term Weakness

By Himanshu Dugar

TFS operates QSRs and lounge in airports. They are present in the top 14 airports in India accounting for 26% of Indian-airport QSR and ~45% of the Indian-airport Lounge revenues
FY26 performance is expected to be flattish as 1H results will lap impact of Adani operated airports being moved from TFS books to Joint venture with 25% stake.
FY27 onwards growth is estimated at 15+% with EBITDA margins of 34-37%. We estimate FY27 revenues of ~2,000cr with PAT of 450-500cr implying the deal is being priced at 30-33x

Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Capgemini to acquire WNS for $76.50 per share in cash; deal implies a 28% premium to VWAP and aims to create a global leader in AI-powered intelligent operations.
WNS traded at a discount to peers pre-offer; Capgemini expects meaningful synergies (~$8.63/share NPV), justifying the 16x P/E takeout. No termination fee is disclosed publicly.
Interloper risk is modest; deal certainty is high. With a 3.83% gross spread (pre-market) and 8.15% annualized return, the arbitrage setup is attractive barring regulatory or shareholder surprises.

Protean EGov: Navigating the PAN 2.0 Headwind and Charting a Diversified Future

Protean’s exclusion from the PAN 2.0 project raises concerns about potential long-term revenue loss, especially as tax services contribute significantly to its current business.
Protean’s strategic diversification into pension services, digital identity solutions, and international markets positions it well for long-term growth, reducing reliance on tax services.
With INR800 crore in cash reserves and zero debt, Protean is financially resilient, allowing it to invest in new growth areas, making it attractive for long-term investors despite short-term volatility.

Travel Food Services IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) is looking to raise about US$233m in its India IPO.
Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands (ABLBL IN) | A Sportswear Wildcard

By Pranav Bhavsar

The ABLBL demerger creates a focused entity with market-leading premium brands, providing a stable foundation by separating the high-margin apparel business from ABFRL’s weaker assets.
ABLBL core lifestyle portfolio, including Louis Philippe and Peter England, boasts dominant market share in key segments and enjoys exceptionally strong brand recall among consumers.
Future growth hinges on wildcards American Eagle and Reebok. The Reebok turnaround offers significant upside by tapping into the high-growth, lucrative Indian sportswear and athleisure market.

Why Borosil Renewables’ Exit from GMB Is a Clear Win for the Company?

Borosil Renewables (BRSL IN)‘ German subsidiary, GMB, filed for insolvency on July 4, 2025, due to European market challenges and losses.
This halts ~INR 9 crore monthly losses, freeing capital and management to focus on India’s booming solar glass sector.
Strengthens positive outlook; Borosil is now leaner and better positioned for India’s high-growth, policy-supported renewable market.

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Jul 06

Daily Brief India: Gabriel India and more

In today’s briefing:

Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader

Event Driven: Gabriel India Restructuring ~ From Shock Absorbers to a Diverse Mobility Leader

On July 2nd, Gabriel India (GABR IN) announced its strategic restructuring plan, merging key entities to diversify its business and unlock significant shareholder value.
The merger increases promoter shareholding from 55% to 63.5%, with projected EPS accretion of 41%.
This move positions Gabriel India as a multi-product leader, enhancing global OEM partnerships and boosting market presence in key automotive segments.

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Jul 05

Daily Brief India: Vodafone Idea , Nuvama Wealth Management, Capri Global Capital, Credila Financial Services Ltd, Patanjali Foods, SeedWorks International Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

In today’s briefing:

VIL’s Revival Impossible or a State-Backed Turnaround Feasible?
Nuvama Wealth: The “Blessing in Disguise” Amidst Market Jitters in Jane Street Case
The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth
Credila Financial Services Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Can Patanjali’s Foray Into the Underpenetrated Insurance Market Drive Growth Via This Acquisition?
SeedWorks International Ltd Pre-IPO – Sowing Seeds Amid Sluggish Bottomline
Tire Giants Redraw India Playbooks; Indian Firms Rework Overseas

VIL’s Revival Impossible or a State-Backed Turnaround Feasible?

Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) faces severe financial distress due to INR 83,400 crore in mounting Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues and substantial deferred payment obligations.
Management warns Vi cannot operate beyond Financial Year 2026 without timely government support for AGR dues, halting crucial bank funding. market.
Vi proposes payment plans and seeks substantial funding, while ARPU is growing, and the government supports a three-player

Nuvama Wealth: The “Blessing in Disguise” Amidst Market Jitters in Jane Street Case

Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN)‘s stock fell sharply due to SEBI barring Jane Street, its domestic trading partner, over alleged market manipulation, despite no direct accusations against Nuvama.
This dip is an overreaction; Nuvama’s strong wealth/asset management (74% revenue) and robust FY26 growth guidance insulate it from Capital Markets segment impact (26%). PAG’s ongoing exit also signals value.
The market correction presents a “blessing in disguise,” opportunity into a fundamentally strong, diversified Indian financial services firm.

The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth

Capri Global’s foray into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management signals a major shift towards becoming a full-spectrum financial services provider, broadening its business model.
With a target of reaching INR 50,000 crore AUM in the next three years, CGCL is positioning itself for significant expansion in India’s underserved financial segments, highlighting strong growth potential.
By integrating AI, data science, and machine learning into its operations, Capri Global is enhancing underwriting, improving customer acquisition, and streamlining business processes, positioning itself for sustained competitive advantage.

Credila Financial Services Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Credila Financial Services Ltd (3452223Z IN) is looking to raise about US$584m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Citi, IIFL, Jefferies and GS.
Credila Financial Services (CFSL) is an Indian education finance company focused on providing education loans to Indian students pursuing higher education in India and overseas.
It was the largest education-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of net loans and net profit in FY25, according to a Redseer Report.

Can Patanjali’s Foray Into the Underpenetrated Insurance Market Drive Growth Via This Acquisition?

Patanjali Ayurved (holding company of Patanjali Foods (PATANJAL IN)) acquired a 73.555% majority stake in Magma General Insurance for approximately INR 4,500 crore.
Patanjali seeks to diversify, leveraging its brand and distribution network to tap India’s underpenetrated insurance market, aligning with IRDAI’s “Insurance for All by 2047” vision.
Magma General brings established operations, a 26% GWP CAGR, and a network of 18,000 agents, providing an immediate platform for market expansion and growth.

SeedWorks International Ltd Pre-IPO – Sowing Seeds Amid Sluggish Bottomline

SeedWorks International Ltd (1441147D IN) (SIL) is planning to raise about US$115m in its upcoming India IPO.
SIL is a seed research and development organization engaged in the research, production, and marketing of hybrid seeds.
As per F&S Report, in FY24, the company ranked 3rd in cotton seeds, 4th in hybrid rice and pearl millet seeds, in terms of volume of seeds sold in India.

Tire Giants Redraw India Playbooks; Indian Firms Rework Overseas

By Vinod Nedumudy

Continental, Michelin, Bridgestone pivot to premium with local focus
MRF expands in EV, defence, and export markets amid capacity growth
Apollo restructures in Europe, bolstering premium bicycle

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Jul 04

Daily Brief India: Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Wakefit Innovations, Karnataka Bank, Yes Bank, Punjab National Bank, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Event Driven: Apollo’s Restructuring-Unlocking Value in India’s Omni-Channel Healthcare Ecosystem
Wakefit Innovations Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Executive Exodus at Karnataka Bank: More Than Just “Personal Reasons”?
Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Quant Divergence Opens Statistical Arb Window
Canara Bank (CBK IN) Vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): Positive Outcome as Pair Reverts to Mean
Nifty’s Summer Setup: Quiet Vol and Strong Price Seasonals

Event Driven: Apollo’s Restructuring-Unlocking Value in India’s Omni-Channel Healthcare Ecosystem

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) is demerging its omni-channel pharmacy and digital health business into a new entity, later merging with Keimed ltd, the wholesale pharmacy distribution arm.
The reorganisation aims to unlock shareholder value, enhance operational focus, and create a transparent, comprehensive pharmacy and digital healthcare platform.
The NewCo(AHL) targets INR 25,000 crore revenue(50%+) by FY27 from digital health and pharmacy scale-up, while core hospitals expand with new beds and high-value therapies.

Wakefit Innovations Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Wakefit Innovations (1684049D IN) (WIL) is looking to raise about US$231m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, Nomura.
Wakefit Innovations is direct‑to‑consumer and sleep and home‑solutions company, founded in 2016.
According to the Redseer Report, the company was the largest D2C home and furnishings company in India by revenue in FY24.

Executive Exodus at Karnataka Bank: More Than Just “Personal Reasons”?

Karnataka Bank (KBL IN)‘s top two executives resigned under unclear circumstances, with boardroom friction, unauthorized spending, and weak financial performance raising concerns.
Even audit report also suggests some red flags of minuscule amounts in unauthorized expenses, raising governance issues.
The bank’s leadership shakeup and declining financials suggest instability; while governance reforms are needed along with new and strong leadership and governance realignment.

Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Quant Divergence Opens Statistical Arb Window

Context: The Yes Bank (YES IN) vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Yes Bank (YES IN) and short IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN) targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Canara Bank (CBK IN) Vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): Positive Outcome as Pair Reverts to Mean

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) and Canara Bank (CBK IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Nifty’s Summer Setup: Quiet Vol and Strong Price Seasonals

By John Ley

Nifty enters July with supportive seasonal trends in both price and volatility.
Trump-Era seasonal trends point to subdued summer volatility compared to historically low July volatility.
Nifty’s proximity to all-time highs sets up attractive strike locations for vol sellers.

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Jul 03

Daily Brief India: ICICI Bank Ltd, Pine Labs, Adani Power, FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), Crizac, Steel, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Centrum Capital, Coal India Ltd, Capillary Technologies India Ltd (CTIL) and more

In today’s briefing:

Long ICICI (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short HDFC (HDFCB IN): Spread Trade in High-Profile Indian Bank Pair
Pine Labs Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Adani Power (ADANIPOWER IN): Bangladesh Clears Dues, Strengthens Balance Sheet
Nykaa Block – US$140m Selldown by Banga Family
Crizac Limited IPO Analysis
Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism
Event Driven: Torrent Acquires JB Chemicals ~ The Second-Largest Pharma Deal in Indian History
The Beat Ideas: Centrum Capital -Unlocking the Hidden Value from Unity Small Finance Bank
India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles
Capillary Technologies India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Long ICICI (ICICIBC IN) Vs. Short HDFC (HDFCB IN): Spread Trade in High-Profile Indian Bank Pair

Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) targets a 2% return to the statistical mean reversion level. The pair has closely aligned fundamentals.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Pine Labs Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Citi, MS, JPM and Jefferies.
Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
According to a Redseer Report, PL was the largest player in issuances of closed and semi-closed loop gift cards by transaction value in India in FY24.

Adani Power (ADANIPOWER IN): Bangladesh Clears Dues, Strengthens Balance Sheet

Adani Power faced nearly USD 900 million in overdue receivables from its 1,600 MW Godda plant under a long-term export PPA.
Bangladesh resumed regular payments and cleared USD 437 million in June; future dues secured via Letter of Credit and sovereign guarantee.
Working capital improves over 40%, interest costs fall by ₹300–400 crore, and credit upgrade likely; boosts cash flow and strategic flexibility.

Nykaa Block – US$140m Selldown by Banga Family

Harindarpal Singh Banga, one of Nykaa’s early investors, aims to raise around US$140m via selling a 2% stake in FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA IN).
He has been gradually reducing his holding, currently owns about 4.97% of Nykaa. Prior to Nykaa’s IPO in Nov 2021, he held a stake of 8.7% in the company.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Crizac Limited IPO Analysis

Crizac’s INR 860-crore, 100% OFS IPO opens at INR 233-245, giving investors exposure to its fast-growing B2B overseas-education marketplace.
International student demand is booming, yet 95 % of revenue hinges on UK-Canada-Ireland; any visa tightening or pricing shock could squeeze growth.
Valuation looks fair and model asset-light, but high concentration and no fresh funds temper enthusiasm.

Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.
Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.
Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.

Event Driven: Torrent Acquires JB Chemicals ~ The Second-Largest Pharma Deal in Indian History

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) is acquiring a controlling stake in J.B. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (JBCP IN) for INR 25,689 crore, marking the second-largest pharma deal in India’s history.
The acquisition strengthens Torrent’s market share in India, expands its therapeutic presence, and opens entry into the growing CDMO sector, diversifying its business model.
The merger is expected to drive revenue growth, improve margins, and provide operational synergies, with long-term gains in both domestic and international markets.

The Beat Ideas: Centrum Capital -Unlocking the Hidden Value from Unity Small Finance Bank

Centrum Capital’s expansion into Unity Small Finance Bank and Modulus Alternatives marks a significant shift from a niche advisory firm to a diversified platform. This transformation opens new growth avenues.
The move to digital banking with Unity SFB and the Modulus AIF enhances Centrum’s ability to capture broader market segments, offering greater revenue diversification and reducing reliance on volatile markets.
The shift to digital-first banking and AIF repositions Centrum for long-term growth, making it a more resilient, multi-vertical financial player, though risks related to asset quality and capital needs remain.

India Coal Sector Q1 FY26: Private Miners Surge, CIL Stumbles

CIL reports 8.5% drop in June output, while private and captive mines post double-digit growth
Unusual monsoon, logistics bottlenecks, and subsidiary underperformance drag PSU volumes
Unless execution improves in Q2 and beyond, outlook on CIL remains cautious amid structural market shifts.

Capillary Technologies India Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Capillary Technologies India Ltd (CTIL) (0611334D IN) is looking to raise about US$240m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, IIFL, Nomura.
CTIL provides AI-based, cloud-native SaaS products and solutions, primarily serving enterprise customers generating over ₹8 million in annual revenue from operations.
As per the Zinnov Report, CTIL was the global leader in loyalty and engagement management by product count in FY25, and among few offering end-to-end loyalty solutions.

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Jul 02

Daily Brief India: HDB Financial Services Ltd, Kalpataru Limited, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis
Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand
NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

HDB Financial Services IPO Trading – Strong Demand, Driven by Instis

By Sumeet Singh

HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) raised around US$1.4bn in its India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance and pricing in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Kalpataru IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand

Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) raised about US$184m in its India IPO.
Kalpataru (KL) is an integrated real estate developer involved in identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of its projects.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rally may stop briefly, for 1 or 2 weeks. At the moment the index hast started a very mild pullback, after closing higher for 2 consecutive weeks.
Usually the rally does not last more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered although there has been occasions where it lasted 7 weeks.
Two scenarios lie ahead: (1) if this week closes higher, expect a near-term pullback; or (2) if it closes lower—possibly continuing into next week—the rally may resume afterward.

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Jul 01

Daily Brief India: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Canara Bank, RPSG Ventures Limited, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd, Edelweiss Financial Services, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Nesco Ltd, Nuvama Wealth Management, Rajshree Polypack and more

In today’s briefing:

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows
Relative Value Roundup: Opportunities and Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific
RPSG Ventures: BPO Business Doing Well | Holding Company Discount at 82%
Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger
Edelweiss: Last 3Y Have Seen Tremendous Shift, Next 2Y Should Be Even Better
HDB Financial Services: Float Cap Expansion Sets Stage for Global Index Inclusion
Nesco: Weak Q4FY25 Due to Underwhelming Performance in BEC
Nuvama: FY25 Ends To Be a Breakout Year
RPPL: Strong Q4FY25 | Next 2Y Look Promising

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.

Relative Value Roundup: Opportunities and Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Three pair trade opportunities across three markets and two sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

RPSG Ventures: BPO Business Doing Well | Holding Company Discount at 82%

RPSG Ventures reported a strong Q4FY25 led by the BPO business that has been growing well. BPO revenues grew 3%+ QoQ and 30%+ YoY. EBIT margin has sustained at 11%+.
The FMCG business after posting INR 550cr+ annualized revenue run-rate for the past few quarters saw a dip in Q4FY25 with annualized revenue at INR 520cr.
The Sports segment reported similar revenue YoY at INR 135cr+, led by part revenue recognition from IPL 2025 that began at end of March, similar to that in 2024.

Event Driven: ABFRL~ Value Unlocking Through Strategic Demerger

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN) demerged its business into two focussed entities, ABLBL(Stable Business) and ABFRL(High growth Business).
The separation aligns capital with business maturity isolating cash-generating lifestyle brands from high-growth, capital-hungry verticals like ethnic, luxury, and digital-first.
The two entities are targeting a combined INR 30,000 Cr in revenue and 3x cash profit by FY30 through unlocking sharper execution, better capital efficiency, and distinct investor appeal.

Edelweiss: Last 3Y Have Seen Tremendous Shift, Next 2Y Should Be Even Better

Edelweiss has executed well over the past three years led by its pivot towards fee-based model. Its asset management businesses have grown rapidly, contributing significantly to the fee income.
The credit businesses are still struggling in terms of growth, but they have been pivoted successfully towards the co-lending model and the next couple of years could see significant growth.
The insurance businesses are also on track to breakeven over the next couple of years in line with the management’s prior guidance.

HDB Financial Services: Float Cap Expansion Sets Stage for Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

The free float is estimated to gradually increase from ~15% up to 30% over six months due to the lock-up expiries of Anchor Investors and pre-IPO Shareholders.
HDB Financial Services is forecasted to be added to Global All-World in December 2025 following the lock-up expiry of the Anchor Investors.
HDB Financial Services has a chance of inclusion in Global Standard in February 2026 following the lock-up expiry of pre-IPO shareholders which can increase free float up to 30%.

Nesco: Weak Q4FY25 Due to Underwhelming Performance in BEC

Nesco reported a weak Q4FY25 led by weak performance in the exhibition segment (“BEC”). Revenue in the BEC segment was down -25% YoY and -30% QoQ.
On the other hand, the IT Parks segment performed strong. IT Parks segment’s Q4FY25 revenue grew 2% QoQ and 15%+ YoY, led by improved occupancy and rise in rental rates.
Typically, the Foods business is linked to the BEC business. However, in Q4FY25, despite weak BEC revenues, the Foods business did well led by the catering business.

Nuvama: FY25 Ends To Be a Breakout Year

Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”) has consistently outperformed expectations throughout FY25 and Q4FY25 was no exception. In particular, the Asset Services sub-segment has been the outlier.
The Wealth Management and Asset Management segments continued to perform steadily providing resilience to the platform, despite cyclicality. They saw net inflows despite challenging market conditions during 2HFY25.
Due to market volatility, certain pockets of the investment bank and institutional equities sub-segments saw somewhat muted performance, however, Nuvama fared much better relative to its peers.

RPPL: Strong Q4FY25 | Next 2Y Look Promising