India

In today’s briefing:

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN): Stat-Arb Pair Trade in Indian Financials

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) Vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN): Stat-Arb Pair Trade in Indian Financials

Context: The Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) vs. Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Kotak Mahindra Bank and short Bajaj Finserv targets a 6% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

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Sep 13

Daily Brief India: Kiri Industries, Infosys Ltd, Vadilal Industries, GMR Hyderabad International Airport and more

In today’s briefing:

Kiri’s $700 Million Exit From DyStar – What Next?
Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?
The Beat Ideas: Vadilal Industries – Will Professional Management Improve Operational Excellence?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Kiri’s $700 Million Exit From DyStar – What Next?

Kiri Industries has signed a deal to sell its 37.6% stake in DyStar Global to Zhejiang Longsheng for US$697 million (~INR 5,800 crore), concluding a decade-long Singapore court battle.
The payout is multiple times Kiri’s current market cap and marks one of the strongest minority shareholder wins globally.
The DyStar exit removes litigation overhang and hands Kiri a war chest. Now, execution of the copper and fertilizer project will define the future of the company.

Infosys Buyback: Tax-Inefficient for Shareholders?

By Nitin Mangal

Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) made headlines in the market after approving share buyback worth INR 180 bn at INR 1800 per share.
The buyback is the largest in company’s history and represents 2.4% of the paid up capital.
However, from the shareholders lens, the buyback would be tax-inefficient, after the regulatory changes which came in effect from Oct 2024.

The Beat Ideas: Vadilal Industries – Will Professional Management Improve Operational Excellence?

Appointment of a digital-savvy CEO and professionalized board strengthens management, positioning Vadilal for sustained growth and corporate transformation.
Robust distribution, innovative production, and premium parlours drive competitive edge and market leadership.
Resolution of internal family disputes and promoter group merger streamlines operations, though potential dilution could affect minority shareholders.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, SK Hynix
Long-end UST yields fell yesterday, on the back of a solid auction for 30Y notes. In addition, market expectations for Fed rate cuts were firm, following the in-line core CPI data and higher than expected jobless claims.
The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST stable at 3.54%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 4.02%. Equities continued to rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.

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Sep 12

Daily Brief India: Infosys Ltd Sp Adr, Urban Company, Asian Energy Services, Awfis Space Solutions, LIC Housing Finance, Tega Industries and more

In today’s briefing:

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks
Urban Company IPO: Will India’s Home Services Giant Clean Up on the Dalal Street?
Asian Energy-Oilmax Merger: From Service Provider to Integrated Energy Player?
Dev Accelerator IPO Review: Tier 2 Focus, Backward Integrated Player
Long LIC Housing (LICHF IN) Vs. Short Bank of India (BOI IN): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Trade
Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

Indian IT | Urge to the Boards – Stop the Buybacks

By Pranav Bhavsar

Indian IT outperformed over 10 years, but recent underperformance and weak R&D spending raise questions on innovation versus high dividend and buyback payouts.
AI disruption threatens coding demand and outsourcing models, risking productivity shocks, workforce layoffs, and urban consumption downturns if companies don’t adapt with innovation.
Boards must prioritize bold investments and acquisitions over capital returns, positioning Indian IT as innovation leaders rather than risk-averse cash generators.

Urban Company IPO: Will India’s Home Services Giant Clean Up on the Dalal Street?

India’s home services market, valued at INR 5,210 billion, is projected to reach INR 8,580 billion by FY2030 at a CAGR of 10–11% .
Urban Company’s core Indian business has turned profitable, with its EBITDA for this segment improving from a 9.72% loss in FY23 to a 3.30% profit in FY25.
The company’s annual consumers grew from 4.76 million in FY2023 to 6.5 million in FY2025, while average spend rose from INR 3,786 to INR 4,079 during the same period.

Asian Energy-Oilmax Merger: From Service Provider to Integrated Energy Player?

Asian Energy Services (AOS IN) has received board approval for the merger of promoter entity Oilmax Energy, with share swap ratio: 117 shares of AESL for 10 shares of Oilmax.
The merger is a strategic move to consolidate OEPL’s asset ownership, including producing oil and gas fields, with AESL’s execution and services capabilities.
The valuation of the parent company is looking costlier, and a reduction in promoter stake makes things skeptical in transaction.

Dev Accelerator IPO Review: Tier 2 Focus, Backward Integrated Player

Dev X planning to double the operational capacity in next two years.
Company is also planning to repay certain debt, while its tier-2 focus and backward integration provides them edge over its peers
Operationally, they are better than peers, evident from longer period lease and high occupancy rates

Long LIC Housing (LICHF IN) Vs. Short Bank of India (BOI IN): Statistical Arbitrage Pair Trade

Context: The LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) vs. Bank Of India (BOI IN) price-ratio deviates more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) and short Bank Of India (BOI IN) targets a 7% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

Tega Industries has announced its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Molycop at a USD 1.48 billion enterprise value, in consortium with Apollo Funds.
The deal is nearly 10x Tega’s size, and will redefine its global positioning across the mining consumables and equipment value chain.
Integration risks loom large, but if executed well, this move transforms Tega from a niche Indian export champion into a global leader in mineral processing solutions.

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Sep 11

Daily Brief India: Urban Company, IDBI Bank Ltd, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

IPO Review: Urban Company – India’s Largest Marketplace for At-Home Services
IDBI Bank’s Stakeholder Enrichment Programme Begins at the Top
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Pre-IPO: Topline Momentum Masks Underlying Weaknesses

IPO Review: Urban Company – India’s Largest Marketplace for At-Home Services

By Himanshu Dugar

With rising affluence, India’s home services’ is fast evolving with a focus on enhancing the convenience and quality of life for households. Online home services to grow at 16–22% CAGR.
Urban Company is the largest player (62% market share) with a recognised brand, ~50+k active professionals offering services across 17+ at-home service categories to 6+mn active customers
IPO looks reasonably priced at 7-8x FY27 revenues, considering Indian tech peers trade between 6-10x. We estimate FY25-27 revenue CAGR at 22-25% vs 27% during FY22-25

IDBI Bank’s Stakeholder Enrichment Programme Begins at the Top

By Hemindra Hazari

Only very few senior executives have benefitted from privatisation of IDBI Bank
Hefty remueration increases given to CEO and two Deputy Managing Directors
Major improvement in the bank’s performance on account of government led injection of equity and bank’s share price has under-performed peers.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Pre-IPO: Topline Momentum Masks Underlying Weaknesses

By Hong Jie Seow

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (LJML) is a jewellery retailer operating as”Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

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Sep 10

Daily Brief India: Central Bank Of India, Urban Company, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Paushak Ltd, Vedanta Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Stat-Arb Pair Trade: Long Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) Vs. Short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN)
Urban Company IPO – Profitability Just Before the IPO Appears to Be a Mirage
Kotak Mahindra Bank Placement – SMBC’s Kotak Exit to Power Yes Bank Entry
Business Breakdown: Paushak Ltd – Phosgene Chemistry Powering Long-Term Growth
Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Stat-Arb Pair Trade: Long Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) Vs. Short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN)

Context: The Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) vs. short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Urban Company IPO – Profitability Just Before the IPO Appears to Be a Mirage

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Urban Company (UCL IN) reported profits in FY25 after years of losses, but the improvement is largely due to temporary cost compression and one-off accounting adjustments.
Revenue growth remains robust (INR11,445m in FY25 vs INR 6,366m in FY23), but profitability sustainability is questionable given competition and structural risks.
Deferred tax credits (INR 2112m in FY25) inflated net profit to INR 2,398m despite thin operating profit (Adj. EBITDA only ₹121m, 1.06% margin).

Kotak Mahindra Bank Placement – SMBC’s Kotak Exit to Power Yes Bank Entry

By Akshat Shah

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) aims to raise around US$700m via a cleanup of its 1.65% stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN).
SMBC received RBI’s approval last month to buy a 24.99% stake in Yes Bank (YES IN). As per media reports,the cleanup is to procure funds for its Yes Bank stake.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Business Breakdown: Paushak Ltd – Phosgene Chemistry Powering Long-Term Growth

Paushak is undergoing a INR 240 crore capex program to expand its downstream capacities and move into semi-specialized products, impacting near-term profitability.
The company’s strong market position in phosgene derivatives and custom manufacturing for global players underpins its long-term growth potential despite current financial pressures.
While elevated valuations reflect short-term capex strain, Paushak’s long-term growth trajectory and strategic expansion reinforce its strong market outlook, maintaining a bullish stance for the future.

Vedanta’s Risky Diversification into JP Associates;Instead of Debt Reduction

Vedanta (VEDL) recently emerged as the highest bidder in a fiercely competitive auction to acquire Jaiprakash Associates (JAL), a key player in the Indian infrastructure sector.
With an offer of INR 17,000 crore, Vedanta secured the company’s assets under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) resolution process.
While the deal presents an opportunity for Vedanta to expand its footprint in diverse sectors, several factors raise concerns about the financial sustainability and strategic risks associated with this acquisition.

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Sep 09

Daily Brief India: Urban Company, Mahindra & Mahindra, Amber Enterprises India, Amanta Healthcare and more

In today’s briefing:

Urban Company IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Not a Whole Lot of Upside
Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Pricey Patriotism or Desperation?
Amber Enterprises: Implication of Rs 1,200 Crore Infusion in Iljin Electronics from PE
Urban Company IPO – Beauty-Led Platform With Structural Growth Tailwinds
The Beat Ideas: Amanta Healthcare IPO – Navigating Growth in the Sterile Pharma Space.

Urban Company IPO – Thoughts on Valuations – Not a Whole Lot of Upside

By Sumeet Singh

Urban Company (UCL IN) is looking to raise about US$220m in its upcoming India IPO.
UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Pricey Patriotism or Desperation?

By Pranav Bhavsar

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) pre-announces GST benefits, signaling consumer-first patriotism but raising questions on intent.
Dealer checks reveal heavy discounting despite festive demand hopes coupled with weak dispatches.
Possible margin risks emerge as MM tries to flush out inventory ahead of GST 2.0 and festive season.

Amber Enterprises: Implication of Rs 1,200 Crore Infusion in Iljin Electronics from PE

Amber Group’s electronics arm, ILJIN Electronics, has raised Rs 1,200 crore in its first-ever institutional fundraise, led by private equity firm ChrysCapital and supported by InCred Growth Partners.
This capital infusion accelerates ILJIN’s organic expansion & supports its strategic inorganic growth ambitions, positioning the company as key beneficiary of India’s push for self-reliance under PLI and ECMS schemes.
The fundraise is a powerful validation of Amber’s strategic pivot towards high-growth EMS sector, paving the way for sustained, multi-year growth and a potential re-rating of the consolidated entity.

Urban Company IPO – Beauty-Led Platform With Structural Growth Tailwinds

By Rahul Jain

Urban Company is India’s largest organized online home-services platform, with ~60% of revenues from Beauty & Wellness and dominant market share across categories.
IPO proceeds (~₹4,720 mn fresh issue) will be used to strengthen technology, expand professional training, enhance branding, and fund working capital.
The platform connects customers with vetted professionals for beauty, cleaning, repairs, and home improvement, differentiated by its supply-controlled model (training, kits, quality standards).

The Beat Ideas: Amanta Healthcare IPO – Navigating Growth in the Sterile Pharma Space.

The company operates a diversified portfolio of sterile liquid products across six therapeutic segments, with a strong domestic presence and expanding global reach, ensuring consistent revenue streams.
Proceeds from the IPO will fund the establishment of two new sterile manufacturing lines, significantly enhancing SteriPort and SVP capacities, expected to drive growth in FY26-27.
While the IPO valuation appears elevated at 46x FY25earnings, the company’s debt reduction and expanded capacity should lead to moderated multiples.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief India: Blue Jet Healthcare Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Blue Jet Healthcare: Pureplay Intermediates CDMO. Recent Correction Overdone, Good for Fresh Bet

Blue Jet Healthcare: Pureplay Intermediates CDMO. Recent Correction Overdone, Good for Fresh Bet

By Himanshu Dugar

BLUEJET is a pure-play API/CDMO with strong positioning in contrast media intermediates. Further, it has demonstrated R&D and execution capabilities by commercialising 15+ molecules (oncology, CVS, CNS) under CDMO model.
Its share price has corrected by ~35% since July end, after below expectation June quarter results exacerbated by weak export data amid tariff concerns. However, August numbers alleviated some concerns.
Shares now trade at 30x FY26 PE, the lower end of 30-60x range where peers currently trade at. Company has high visibility for 20+% earnings growth for the medium term.

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Sep 07

Daily Brief India: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Newgen Software Technologies and more

In today’s briefing:

Long Kotak Mahindra (KMB IN) Vs. Short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Statistical Arbitrage in Indian Banks
Newgen Software Technologies- Forensic Update

Long Kotak Mahindra (KMB IN) Vs. Short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Statistical Arbitrage in Indian Banks

Context: The Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) vs. Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) targets a 9% return, with the long position supported by cheaper valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Newgen Software Technologies- Forensic Update

By Nitin Mangal

Newgen Software Technologies (NEWGEN IN) is the leading provider of a unified digital transformation platform with native process automation, content services, and communication management capabilities.
The company continues to exhibit aggressive accounting practice in FY25, where growth driven by overseas subsidiaries was majorly tied up in credit period. Higher provision on debtors is further concerning.
High remuneration to promoters and independent directors, insider trading complaints, are few governance concerns

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Sep 06

Daily Brief India: Urban Company, JTEKT India, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and more

In today’s briefing:

Urban Company IPO – Hyperlocal SME Services Increases Disintermediation Risk
Business Breakdown: JTEKT India – Can Maruti EV Accelerate a Structural Rerating?
India Synthetic Rubber Demand On Import Leash As Tariffs Begin Biting
Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Starts FY26 on Strong Footing; Eyes Double-Digit Revenue Growth for FY26

Urban Company IPO – Hyperlocal SME Services Increases Disintermediation Risk

By Sumeet Singh

Urban Company(UC) is looking to raise about US$220m in its upcoming India IPO.
UCL is a tech-enabled platform offering home and beauty services delivered by trained professionals at customer’s location.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Business Breakdown: JTEKT India – Can Maruti EV Accelerate a Structural Rerating?

JTEKT India outpaced industry growth in FY25 with CVJ commercialization and a 100% system supplier role for Maruti’s upcoming EV.
Strong OEM stickiness and global hub positioning provide revenue visibility, but heavy capex and margin compression weigh on near-term returns.
Growth remains structurally intact, but the story shifts to a transition phase, earnings quality and capital efficiency will stay constrained until FY27.

India Synthetic Rubber Demand On Import Leash As Tariffs Begin Biting

By Vinod Nedumudy

SR demand in FY 2025 surges 9.3%, outpacing 6.1% rise in output
Imports rise nearly 17% YoY to 413,627 tons in FY 2024-25
Reclaimed Rubber consumption up 8.55% to 167,500 tons

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Starts FY26 on Strong Footing; Eyes Double-Digit Revenue Growth for FY26

By Tina Banerjee

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) delivered robust performance in Q1FY26, with double-digit revenue growth across all three business verticals and continuous margin expansion.
Hospital business revenue grew 11% YoY to INR29B, driven by inpatient volume (+3%) and favorable price and case mix (+8%). Margin improvement continued, with EBITDA margin expanding 88bps to 24.5%.
Apollo anticipates continued double digit revenue growth for FY26, underpinned by strong performance of the existing hospitals and new hospital openings.

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Sep 04

Daily Brief India: Tata Capital Limited, Mahindra & Mahindra, Jindal Steel and more