Category

Technical Analysis

Jun 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
  • We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.
  • Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).

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May 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

By Joe Jasper

  • A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
  • We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
  • Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week’s Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.

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May 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest “bearish” headline regarding Moody’s U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
  • This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this “lockout rally,” and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
  • Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.

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May 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

By Joe Jasper

  • As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
  • We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass — when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support — but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
  • Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500

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May 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

By Joe Jasper

  • Continuing the trend from last week’s report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.
  • As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.
  • While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
  • Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
  • 200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

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Apr 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

By Joe Jasper

  • Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term…
  • SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
  • 5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
  • While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

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Apr 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
  • We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
  • A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int’l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
  • Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.

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