Category

Technical Analysis

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.
  • A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).
  • The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends
  • Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
  • As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
  • As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.

Country Garden, China Resource Land, Alibaba, and HSBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Wish had more conviction for writing this update. The framework for determining if the bounce is durable or if a trend reversal has occurred is not working or is not clear.
  • Stocks that could see tailwinds and drivers for a sustained rally do not have the Volume to confirm the trend change.
  • At the same time, stocks with massive headwinds and structural issues have high Volumes.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+13.4%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • The development of TSS has been a life’s work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our second TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.
  • On 7 November we determined that the new interim downtrend low below 59.51 had failed and would likely produce a minimum 6-8% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
  • TSM US subsequently produced a 13.4% gain in the following 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Meeting Tactical Top Target and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Meeting Tactical Top Target

SPX Meeting Tactical Top Target

By Thomas Schroeder

  • RTY long is falling short of our 1,850 PT. SPX met the 3,820/40 tactical top target outlined last week (rally from SPX 3,700). A C-wave decline is expected to 3,650.
  • DXY near support while yield remains elevated is at odds. DXY rally due from 110/109.50 and if yield push higher will see equities buckle.
  • NDX is the U/P short to add back to below 11,300. SPX long support zone rests at 3,650/20 with 3,600 the critical pivot to spur a fresh rise.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In

SPX Pullback near Target with RTY Buy In

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX dual top at 3,928 rolled just under the 3,950 top target. Break of wedge support was the touted trigger to add to our short group. 10yr 4.20% PT met.
  • SPX 3,700/650 is our pullback target add to risk but we must get past the NFP report first. RTY is our top long pick in the US at trendline.
  • Asia shorts (HSI and Taiwan) and Asia longs to layer into (NKY and ASX). Levels to coordinate with SPX 3,660 support.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255
  • Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSLA (US) shows near term upside that is expected to fade and set up a better entry level below 200 with stiff resistance near the 255 target.
  • Macro descending wedge is the dominant driver into 2023 with lower wedge support at 180/160 and upper pattern resistance at 330 currently and will shift lower with time translation.
  • Buy volumes on this bounce have tapered off, suggesting this rise is corrective in nature and why our buy target revolves around a new low.

Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week’s Compass (Oct. 25).
  • Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.
  • With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 3,500 Transitioning Higher

SPX 3,500 Transitioning Higher

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our bullish risk call at SPX 3,500 has panned out nicely while using our short group to sell squeeze rallies. Increasing evidence sides with a more bullish November for risk.
  • USD and the US 10yr yield face pivot support with a tactical bounce bias. Conviction is to sell the USD and Yield into strength.
  • RTY long from 1,650 has been the star performer while shorting the NDX on squeeze spiked has worked fairly well. Update SPX, RTY and NDX buy and sell level outlined.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int’l Compass
  • We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expanding USD Top Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expanding USD Top Signals

Expanding USD Top Signals

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD splinters outlined at DXY 114 with select USD shorts in AUD, SGD, ZAR, BRL. Call to reduce USD longs with a buy level at 111, fade and 109.50.
  • US 10yr pivot support at 4% is the bull bear divide for risk and a bigger USD downturn. USD weakness telegraphing a yield decline and stronger Q4 risk cycle.
  • Trade USD uptick in some of the weaker Asian units with a plan to expand shorts for a bigger Q4 slide to DXY 105.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China/HSI Uptick Short Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China/HSI Uptick Short Levels
  • Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

China/HSI Uptick Short Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bear impulse in China/HK sets up a sell on a squeeze. Sell volumes ignited on the A50 12,400 support break. HSI has been our top short in Asia and rewarded.
  • We did trim our HSI short at the 15k target but still represents 10% of our book. RSI is oversold with short squeeze risk (then re cycle short).
  • Hong Kong likes to bottom on big impulsive downside moves so will be interesting how our price and timing models converge.

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
  • Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
  • As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.

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