Thailand

• As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
• Pledging in those shares – in what I call the Prakitchaiwattana Complex – have been static, to down, in the month of October.
• Recent big-ish moves were seen in Siam City Cement (SCCC TB) (up), Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB) (up); Next Capital (NCAP TB) (down) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) (down).

• Fabrinet has reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing a record revenue of $978 million, marking a 22% increase year-over-year and an 8% rise from the previous quarter.
• Non-GAAP earnings per share peaked at $2.92, reflecting the company’s robust operational efficiency and growth momentum.
• The company’s positive results are fueled by diverse growth drivers across its business segments, suggesting a promising outlook for the continuation of growth into the second quarter.

• Thailand’s rubber exports up by .5% MoM to 204,095 MT in Sept

• Chinese imports decline while US imports sharply rise

• Significant disruption to production due to rains

  Thailand, which continued to witness unusually heavy rains during its ongoing production season, saw rubber export volume increasing marginally from August to September, while the returns also increased correspondingly as tight supply prevented prices from falling further.

• The 3Q25 production and cash position at the end of September had been previously disclosed.
• November production to date has averaged 24,537 bbl/d, exceeding the 3Q25 average of ~23 mbbl/d.
• The FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d has been re-iterated.

• The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
• In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review in December 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in June and December).

• Dominant Market Position: Alucon is the largest producer of aluminum impact-extruded packaging in Asia, with a massive annual capacity of 1.2 billion units, providing significant scale advantages.
• Strong Financial Resilience & Shareholder Returns: The company demonstrates robust profitability and a commitment to dividends, supported by a strong balance sheet. The dividend yield is notably high, and the company has a stated policy of paying out not less than 50% of net profit.
• Exposure to Key Risks: Alucon’s profitability is sensitive to the volatility of aluminum prices, its primary raw material. Furthermore, it faces a persistent threat from substitute packaging materials like plastics and paper, which can be more cost-effective.

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• Leading Market Position in a Growing Niche: Business Online is a dominant player in Thailand’s business information and analytics market, a sector poised for structural growth driven by the increasing need for data-driven decision-making and digital transformation across the Thai economy.
• Robust Financial Profile with High Margins: The company exhibits a strong financial track record characterized by high and stable profitability margins (Net Margin consistently around 40%), strong operating cash flow generation, and a healthy balance sheet, supporting a consistent dividend payout.
• Strategic Partnerships and Proprietary Data as Key Moats: Long-standing exclusive partnerships, notably with Dun & Bradstreet, combined with an extensive proprietary database on Thai businesses, create significant barriers to entry and a durable competitive advantage.

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• Market Leader Facing Margin Headwinds: R&B Food Supply (RBF) is a dominant food ingredient supplier in Thailand, poised to benefit from positive long-term industry trends. However, the company has experienced recent gross and net margin compression, a key concern for profitability.
• Overseas Expansion Driving Growth: While the domestic Thai market provides a stable base, future growth is heavily reliant on the successful expansion into high-growth ASEAN markets, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, where the company has demonstrated strong initial traction.
• Contrasting Fundamentals and Market Performance: Despite consistent top-line growth and positive operating cash flow, the company’s market capitalization has seen a significant decline over the past three years, suggesting market concerns over profitability, valuation, and competitive pressures.

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• We turn cautious on our sole positive Thai recommendation Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy, despite its very attractive value attributes
• We believe that Thailand’s unilateral suspension of the peace accord in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is likely to be negative for sentiment towards Thai equities, including banks, in the short term
• Consequently, in the worsening investor climate, we do not expect Bangkok Bank shares to benefit from a re-rating over the short term

• Mr. DIY Holding (Thailand) (2472516D TB) is looking to raise up to US$173m in its upcoming Thai IPO.
• It is recognized as the largest and fastest growing home improvement and general lifestyle retailer in Thailand.
• In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Dominant Market Player with Stable Growth: Krungthai Card (KTC) is a leading provider of credit card and personal loan services in Thailand, consistently demonstrating revenue and net income growth. Its strategic affiliation with Krungthai Bank provides a significant competitive advantage.
• Digital Transformation to Drive Future Growth: The company is heavily investing in a digital transformation strategy, aiming to enhance customer acquisition, improve operational efficiency, and strengthen data analytics. This initiative is expected to support sustainable long-term growth and mitigate rising competition from virtual banks and fintech.
• Navigating Macroeconomic Headwinds: While fundamentals are strong, the company faces challenges from a softer economic outlook in Thailand and high household debt levels. Regulatory oversight from the Bank of Thailand, particularly concerning interest rate ceilings and lending practices, remains a key factor to monitor.

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• Return to Profitability Amid Market Headwinds: After two consecutive years of net losses, Ananda Development returned to profitability in 2024, driven by a significant revenue rebound. However, the company faces a challenging Thai property market characterized by high household debt, stringent lending policies, and an oversupply in certain condominium segments.
• Specialist in Transit-Oriented Development (TOD): Ananda has carved a strong niche as a leading developer of condominiums in close proximity to Bangkok’s mass transit stations. This strategy targets urban professionals and leverages the city’s ongoing infrastructure expansion, underpinning its core value proposition.
• High Leverage Poses Financial Risk: The company operates with a high degree of financial leverage, as indicated by its low Resilience score. While this can amplify returns in a market upswing, it also increases vulnerability to economic downturns, interest rate hikes, and shifts in market sentiment. The suspension of dividend payments for the past three years reflects a focus on capital preservation.

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• BEC World is navigating a structural decline in its core television advertising business by focusing on a ‘Single Content Multiple Platforms’ strategy. This involves diversifying revenue streams through its digital platform ‘3Plus’ and aggressively expanding its global content licensing business.
• Financial performance reflects industry-wide headwinds, with a consistent decline in revenue and net income over the past three years. While the company is focused on cost management, the erosion of high-margin advertising revenue continues to pressure profitability.
• The company’s future hinges on its ability to successfully monetize its extensive content library across new digital and international platforms to offset the secular decline in traditional broadcasting. Growth in content licensing and digital subscriptions are key strategic imperatives.

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• Exceptional Growth Trajectory: TPS has demonstrated a robust growth profile, with a 3-year revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 39.81% and a net income CAGR of 51.78%, driven by its strong position in Thailand’s expanding IT services sector.
• Attractive Shareholder Returns: The company offers a compelling dividend yield, which stood at 6.94% in 2024, coupled with a consistent history of dividend growth (35.72% 3-year CAGR). This is complemented by strong share price momentum, having outperformed the Thai IT industry and the broader market over the past year.
• Favorable Industry Dynamics: Operating as a key IT solutions provider in Thailand, TPS is well-positioned to capitalize on the country’s digital transformation. The growing cybersecurity market, driven by increased digital adoption and regulatory requirements, presents a significant tailwind for future growth.

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• Integrated Financial Services Model with Digital Asset Focus: XSpring Capital is strategically positioning itself as a fully integrated financial services provider, bridging traditional finance with the high-growth digital asset sector. Its diverse business segments, including securities brokerage, asset management, investment banking, and a dedicated digital asset unit, create a robust ecosystem to capture opportunities across the financial spectrum.
• Aggressive Growth Trajectory and Turnaround: The company has demonstrated a remarkable financial turnaround, shifting from a significant net loss in 2022 to strong profitability in 2023 and 2024. Management has set ambitious growth targets, aiming for a 20% revenue increase in 2025, driven by expansion in its lending portfolio and new digital token offerings.
• High-Risk, High-Reward Profile with Cash Flow Concerns: Despite impressive revenue and profit growth, the company’s operating and free cash flows have been extremely volatile and frequently negative. This, combined with the inherent volatility of the digital asset market and evolving regulations, presents a high-risk profile for investors, warranting a high uncertainty rating.

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• We upgrade deep value Bangkok Bank to buy from neutral; it trades on a 40%+ PBV discount to SCBx and its return trends improved further alongside solid balance sheet credentials
• TMB Thanachart’s share price has corrected versus the peer group, so its PBV valuation no longer looks so stretched especially versus SCBx; we upgrade TMB Thanachart to neutral from sell
• Krung Thai remains a neutral, even though it is delivering on improved returns, as it is not compelling value and has been narrowing the discount with SCBx

• Mega Lifesciences is a leading pharmaceutical and nutraceutical company with a strong presence in high-growth Southeast Asian markets, particularly Myanmar, Vietnam, and Cambodia.
• The company’s dual-engine business model, comprising the branded ‘Mega We Care’ products and the ‘Maxxcare’ distribution arm, provides both margin strength and extensive market reach.
• Future growth is anticipated to be driven by strategic expansion into new markets like Indonesia, a robust pipeline of new product launches, and favorable demographic trends such as rising health consciousness and an aging population in its core markets.

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• Synnex Thailand stands as the country’s largest IT distributor, poised to capitalize on growth in cloud services, AI-enabled devices, and the gaming market.
• Recent financial performance shows robust revenue growth, with a 2Q25 profit reaching a two-year high; however, margins remain thin and cash flow has been volatile, reflecting the competitive nature of the distribution business.
• The stock appears attractively valued, trading at its lowest P/E ratio in five years, offering a potential re-entry point for investors banking on continued demand for IT products and successful strategic expansion into higher-margin services.

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• As first discussed back in May (see here), shares in Krungthai Card (KTC TB), XSpring (XPG TB), BEC (BEC TB), and The Practical Solution (TPS TB) all went limit down. Twice.
• As widely reported at the time, Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana reportedly pledged his holdings in all four companies. Pledged shares in KTC ballooned in June versus May, but since fallen.
• All four were mostly flat in Sept vs. August. Elsewhere, recent big moves were seen in BCPG (BCPG TB) (up), and Thai Foods Group (TFG TB) (down).

• With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in December.
• Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
• The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Thai Oil, Genting Berhad, Nickel Industries, Meituan
• The UST curve twisted flatter yesterday, with long-end yields declining on account of a solid auction for 5Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.49%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.98%.
• Equities and risk assets gained on optimism over a US-China trade deal expected to be signed later this week.