Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Equity markets fell sharply on the administration’s new tariffs as the magnitude and scope exceeded the market’s expectations.
Furniture and furnishings stocks, an industry with significant import exposure, were particularly hard hit.
The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index (-5.3%), the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index (-12.0%) and the Home Goods Retailers Index (-14.0%) were all down as the S&P 500 and Dow 30 (-9.6%) and the R2K (-9.2%) were also hard hit by the news.

KTX Zoom: US 1Q25E Earnings Results – APRIL 11, 2025

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-up pattern, with the resistance levels at 1,150/1,158/1,168 points (25-day EMA) and the support levels at 1,130/1,122 points.
In the medium term, the index remains in a downtren within the 960-1,200-point range, searching for the bottom.
In the short term, the index is expected to continue rising, targeting 1,158/1,168 points.

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Apr 11

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash
Crude Oil Below $ 60: OPEC’s Pivot, China’s Tariffs, and the New Oil Equation
Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Ohayo Japan | Trade War Whiplash

The S&P 500 sank 3.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.3%; Yen Stronger, Nikkei Futs down
Fast Retailing forecasts a 10% rise in consolidated net profit to 410 billion yen for the fiscal year ending August 2025, up 25 billion yen from prior estimates
Effissimo Capital Management raised its Ricoh stake to 21.71%. Note that Effissimo also owns 5.81% of Konica Minolta, aiming to influence management and proposals

Crude Oil Below $ 60: OPEC’s Pivot, China’s Tariffs, and the New Oil Equation

Crude oil prices dropped below $60 as OPEC+ boosted output and China retaliated with tariffs, sparking global trade and demand concerns.
For India, every $10/bbl fall can cut CAD by 0.5% of GDP, ease inflation by 0.3%, but risks lower fiscal revenue due to fuel tax dependence.
While beneficial short-term, India must prepare for volatility—by diversifying energy, insulating fiscal math, and enhancing trade resilience amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump’s bill adds to fiscal imbalance.
Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.
Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.

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Apr 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Surges 9.5%! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Surges 9.5%!
US Tariff Impact on APAC Healthcare: Focus Country- JAPAN
The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 35
China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?
Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time
The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 48
The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 50
Real Asset Chartbook: The First Edition
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 9 April (AMG Critical Materials | SBM Offshore | NX Filtration)

Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Surges 9.5%!

U.S. stocks staged a historic rally after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs
Tech and retail stocks led the comeback, with Apple rising over 15%, Nvidia nearly 19%, Walmart 9.6%, and Tesla more than 22%
Seven &i Holdings plans to repurchase up to 600 billion yen of its shares, acquiring up to 400 million shares (15.4% of issued shares) by end Feb, 2026

US Tariff Impact on APAC Healthcare: Focus Country- JAPAN

By Tina Banerjee

U.S. has implemented a universal baseline tariff of 10%, effective April 5. Japan faces 24% reciprocal tariff from April 9.
In 2023, Japan exported pharmaceutical products worth $6.34B (~43% of total exports) to the U.S.
Japanese pharma and medical devices companies have significant revenue exposure to the U.S.

The Stocks to Own in China – Vol. 35

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 10 stocks in China that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, six new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 150% versus the CSI 300 Index’s return of 53%

China & HK Strategy: Which Stocks Will Thrive?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” have led to over 10% fall in the Hong Kong market, but there are some names that only came down by 3.2% on average.
Their characteristics are: 1.) domestically focused, 2.) net cash position, 3.) secure demand, 4.) consumption downgrade beneficiary, and 5.) good dividends.
These stocks are Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Kunlun Energy (135 HK), Mixue Group (2097 HK), and China East Education (667 HK).

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Pulls off One of the Greatest Ruses of All Time

Oversold tech/SPE/AI surging after Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs on all but China, with the SOX up the most of all time.
Expect similar moves with oversold tech beta likely to open >+10%.
Banks and life insurance should continue to fare well given the persistently high yields, and names with high export ratios to the US.

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 48

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Two stock remains, 12 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 200% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 77%

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 50

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into the portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 223% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 30%

Real Asset Chartbook: The First Edition

By Massif Capital Research

This is the first edition of the Real Asset Chartbook.

This document arose from an internal need at Massif Capital to consolidate and streamline our process of monitoring liquid real asset markets. It remains a work in progress but is extremely useful in its present state.

The Chartbook will be released weekly, on Fridays, after the market closes.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 9 April (AMG Critical Materials | SBM Offshore | NX Filtration)

By The IDEA!

AMG decided to make a capital investment of USD 15m to establish an aluminothermic production facility to manufacture chrome metal in the United States.
The facility, with an annual capacity of up to 6,500 tons, will be located next to AMG Titanium’s facility in New Castle, Pennsylvania.
AMG expects the facility to be operational in 26Q1. Comment | AMG Chrome is a major producer of chrome metal in the UK.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP
Why Silver Is Falling?
Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies, Then Crashes
Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too
India’s Rs.1.5T Q4 2025 Boost: Private Sector & Renewables Lead, Yearly Lag Persists
Japan Morning Connection: Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Looms but Japan Is Front of the Line in Talks
Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)
Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound
Biopharma Week in Review – Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff

Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP

The US imposed sweeping 2025 tariffs, including a 27% reciprocal tariff on India, raising average import tariffs from 2.5% to over 15%.
Tariffs are expected to raise US consumer prices by 2.3%, cut household income by $3,800 annually, and lower real GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points in 2025.
Global trade dynamics are shifting. India may see a 50 bps GDP hit, but relatively smaller impact versus peers opens space for strategic realignment with US trade flows.

Why Silver Is Falling?

Silver prices recently plunged 14%, driven by US tariffs, concerns over global trade slowdowns, and reduced industrial demand, overshadowing long-term fundamentals like strong green tech demand.
The price drop reflects heightened economic uncertainty, triggered by geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and weak demand forecasts, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver, particularly affecting industrial applications.
Despite short-term volatility, silver’s industrial demand remains robust, and long-term supply shortages persist. Tariffs and global trade concerns will continue influencing price fluctuations in the near term.

Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies, Then Crashes

US stocks sank as tariff tensions with China escalated, with major indexes reversing gains amid rare levels of sustained market volatility.
Japan gains priority in US tariff talks, but Tokyo warns proposed duties could hurt its auto sector and reduce investment in the US.
AVI, holding 2.3% of Rohto, urged the firm to scale back regenerative medicine, citing poor commercialization prospects and plans to publicize its demand.

Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too

By Michael Causton

The Japanese fashion e-commerce market is undergoing rapid transformation: while online sales continue to grow, the channel’s share of total fashion sales has fluctuated due to strong in-store performance.
Even the best exemplars of effective integration of online and offline and personalised marketing have seen e-commerce share fall as physical store sales have risen faster for many.
Omnichannel models continue to evolve, with great examples of deeper integration of stores and digital through staff activities like blogging and Live Commerce.

India’s Rs.1.5T Q4 2025 Boost: Private Sector & Renewables Lead, Yearly Lag Persists

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Project completions rose to Rs.1.5 trillion in March 2025, surpassing Rs.1.3 trillion in December 2024, but yearly performance lags behind 2023-24 and 2022-23.
Private sector led with Rs.675 billion, while central government completed Rs.463 billion, boosted by the Rs.257 billion P-75 Submarines Project finalized in January 2025.
Renewable energy dominated completions at Rs.326 billion, with Adani Green’s Rs.65 billion solar projects in Rajasthan enhancing India’s green energy capacity.

Japan Morning Connection: Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Looms but Japan Is Front of the Line in Talks

US falters over the day after a strong start with renewed tariff concerns depressing sentiment.
Banks and insurance rallied with Treasury yields over the day rising despite the pullback from equities.
US / Japan bilateral talks may push the BoJ into action.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 7.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 9.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 9.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 9.8%).
Energy Technology (12.8% of the index) was down 9.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.0% of the index) was down 8.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.6% of the index) was down 6.4%.
Top 10 Performers: PGTK, GWTI, MVST, NRM, LEV, AZRE, JEV, VIHD, ENG, RUN

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

By Rahul Jain

U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view.

Biopharma Week in Review – Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff

The forced resignation of the FDA’s CBER Director Peter Marks shook the biopharma market, as he called out RFK Jr.’s goal of confirming vaccine “misinformation and lies.”
President Donald Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs weakened biopharma further, as the exemption for pharmaceuticals was unclear and eventual tariffs on drug products are now largely expected.
The FDA uncertainty and stagflation fears remain an overhang on the industry.

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Apr 08

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tariff Rumour Chaos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Tariff Rumour Chaos
Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher
Capex Monetization: Revenue Impact, Margin Expansion Across Companies
Where Are We Now? Index Valuations, Earnings Expectations, Where the Bottom Could Be?
Tariff: New World Order?
Tech Talk: US Tariffs – Possible Impacts on Covered Companies
Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds
Monday Delight: 07/04/25
The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on China Healthcare – The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 7 April (dsm-firmenich | Shell | InPost | B&S Group | TomTom)

Ohayo Japan | Tariff Rumour Chaos

US stocks ended a volatile session mixed Monday as trade tensions dominated headlines. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% for a third straight loss
Brief hopes of a tariff pause lifted markets midday, but the White House denied the rumor, reigniting uncertainty
Oasis Management, a Hong Kong-based activist, disclosed a 5.93% stake in en Japan, acquiring 2.95 million shares for 5 billion yen

Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher

The horse trading continues with Israel bowing to the US and bilateral talks with Japan set to commence imminently.
US shippers outperformed given lower oil despite an outlook for lower global trade overall.
Samsung numbers beating this morning on strong demand for the Galaxy S25 smartphones and DRAM.

Capex Monetization: Revenue Impact, Margin Expansion Across Companies

Several companies across industries have commissioned capacity expansions. These completions reflect management’s strong demand outlook and are often precursors to improved financial performance and long-term value creation.
The completion of strategic Capex enhances revenue streams and EBITDA margins, positioning companies for sustainable growth, improved financial performance, and greater investor confidence amid evolving market demands.
Tracking newly completed capacities helps identify companies entering growth mode. As utilization improves and integration lowers costs, earnings visibility strengthens, supporting upgraded forecasts and potential valuation upside.

Where Are We Now? Index Valuations, Earnings Expectations, Where the Bottom Could Be?

By Nicolas Baratte

The S&P and Nasdaq corrections are already large at -20% and do imply an earnings recession. But these corrections started from elevated valuations level.
A 15% earnings decline in 2025 on typical recession valuations multiples (-1 standard deviation) implies another -20% downside.
This is a time to be patient, wait for a policy inflection or a bottom to markets – both can take months.

Tariff: New World Order?

By Henry Soediarko

The logic behind the tariff is not just a slap in the face for a lot of other nations but also net imports over exports.
Companies benefitting from the globalization will suffer, and the ones with domestic-centric businesses with real assets in proximity may be less hurt.
This could accelerate the forming of new trading bloc that may change the current world order.

Tech Talk: US Tariffs – Possible Impacts on Covered Companies

Tariffs are the talk of the town in tech. As of April 5, there will be a universal 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US.
President Donald Trump also declared that foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency, and his order imposes a reciprocal tariff designed to match the import taxes countries currently have on US products.
Technology products could see significant tariffs as the reciprocal tariff hits a number of countries.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Trump’s Trade War Headwinds

By Victor Galliano

Global macro hurdles following “liberation day” have hit Japanese banks’ share prices hard; global recession risks are on the rise and BoJ monetary policy normalization is at best delayed
With investors betting on the safe haven of Japanese government bonds, the JGB yield curve has flattened since March-end which adds to the Japanese banks’ hurdles
Despite maintaining our constructive medium to long term view on Japanese banks, we expect challenges in the near-term and we would reduce long exposures to Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Shizuoka

Monday Delight: 07/04/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on China Healthcare – The Victims, And the Safe Haven Assets

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

APIs, generic drugs, CXO, low-end medical consumables will be hit the most due to tariffs.Investors are advised to be cautious on these subsectors as companies’ performance would be negatively affected.
As the tariff war is heating up, blood products, innovative medical device, innovative drugs, chain pharmacies, innovative medical services, pharmaceutical distribution business could be “safe haven assets” for investors.
The logic behind tariffs is to attack China’s effective supply and trigger China’s overcapacity problem, thereby weakening effective demand and reducing capital accumulation rate, so as to attack the RMB.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 7 April (dsm-firmenich | Shell | InPost | B&S Group | TomTom)

By The IDEA!

According to Bloomberg, several private equity parties are looking at a possible takeover of dsmfirmenich ‘s animal feed division.
CVC Capital Partners, Apollo, Bain Capital and Lone Star are among those interested.
dsm-firmenich announced last year that it would be divesting the division.

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Apr 07

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Cratered and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Cratered
Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Cratered

The S&P 500 sank nearly 6%, capping its worst week since 2020
About 90% of TSE Prime Market stocks declined on Friday, with semiconductor and tech stocks, particularly hard hit.
Nintendo postponed U.S. preorders for its Switch 2 gaming device, originally scheduled for April 9, 2025, to assess potential impacts of Trump’s new tariffs.

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

Big drops for futures and commodity markets to start the week, so expect heavy selling across the board to start.
Vietnam signalling willingness to cut US tariffs sending related footwear/clothing names who manufacture in country sharply higher.
Nintendo cancelling its US Switch2 pre-sales sending ADR’s lower only to snap back as market remains bullish on new console.

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Apr 06

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): #132 India Insight: U.S. 26% Tariff on India and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

#132 India Insight: U.S. 26% Tariff on India, Apple’s 25% Output Surge, HDFC Bank Regulatory Warning
#133 India Insight: GOI Trims 4.83% in Mazagon OFS, Gensol Faces SEBI Scrutiny, ABFRL’s 2x Rev Plan
APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 6)- Nippon Shinyaku, Shionogi, Beigene, Celltrion, Mesoblast, Lupin

#132 India Insight: U.S. 26% Tariff on India, Apple’s 25% Output Surge, HDFC Bank Regulatory Warning

U.S. imposes 26% tariff on Indian imports to be enforced in two phases i.e. 10% from April 5 and 16% from April 10 , although India sees no major setback.
Apple (AAPL US) to raise India’s iPhone output to 25% by 2028 from 14% in FY24, boosting local manufacturing and to meet the projected demand.
SEBI warns HDFC Bank for non-compliance; analysts project a 12% upside in share price.

#133 India Insight: GOI Trims 4.83% in Mazagon OFS, Gensol Faces SEBI Scrutiny, ABFRL’s 2x Rev Plan

GOI launches a 4.83% stake sale in Mazagon Dock at an 8% discount, causing a 6.4% stock dip.
SEBI may investigate Gensol Engineering (GENSOL IN) over related-party EV leases and falsified debt servicing documents.
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL IN) shifts focus to organic growth with plans to double revenue and hit 70% ROCE in lifestyle brands which drives strong re-rating potential.

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 6)- Nippon Shinyaku, Shionogi, Beigene, Celltrion, Mesoblast, Lupin

By Tina Banerjee

Nippon Shinyaku filed NDA of tagraxofusp for a rare aggressive hematologic malignancy in Japan. Shionogi initiated rolling NDA submission to the FDA for Xocova for COVID-19 post-exposure prophylaxis.
Beigene is discontinuing clinical development program for ociperlimab, as a potential treatment for lung cancer. Celltrion received positive CHMP opinion for the addition of the Omlyclo autoinjector formulation.
The first three children with SR-aGvHD will receive a course of Mesoblast’s Ryoncil commencing this week. Lupin is acquiring UK-based Renascience Pharma, a sole supplier of 4 specialty products.

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Apr 05

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report : The Rise of Domestic Capital in Indian Equities: Ownership and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Thematic Report : The Rise of Domestic Capital in Indian Equities: Ownership, Breadth, and Maturity
Japan Weekly Strategy | a Week to Forget
#131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 04/04/2025
Semi Revenues: Feb-25 Revenues Are Good. Let’s Have a Look Back at 2008-09 for a Worst-Case Scenario

Thematic Report : The Rise of Domestic Capital in Indian Equities: Ownership, Breadth, and Maturity

For the first time since 2006, individual investors—through both direct holdings and mutual fund participation—now collectively own a larger share of the Indian stock market than foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
This milestone reflects not just a cyclical trend but a fundamental shift in market ownership, behaviour, and breadth of participation.
Driven by sustained SIP flows, government disinvestments, regulatory changes, and the broad underperformance of large-cap names, Indian investors are now not just participants, but market shapers.

Japan Weekly Strategy | a Week to Forget

The Nikkei 225 fell 9%, while the Topix slumped 10%, capping one of the worst weekly showings in recent memory
President Donald Trump’s “surprise” escalation of trade measures—including proposed 25% duties on Japanese car imports and 24% on other goods—sent shockwaves through equity markets
Investors should hunt for companies with domestic resilience, pricing power, and strong governance

#131 India Insight: ITC’s 3.5k Paper Unit Acquisition, GOI 4% AMP Gas Hike, HAL’s Huge Defence Win

ITC Ltd (ITC IN) acquires Aditya Birla’s pulp & paper unit in an all-cash INR 3,498 Cr deal, boosting its market dominance in specialty paperboards and 60% capacity expansion.
GOI hikes APM gas rates by 4% after two years, making CNG and piped cooking gas costlier, impacting households and transport.
Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) signs India’s biggest defence deal of Rs. 62,700 Cr to supply 156 Light Combat Helicopters, sending its stock soaring 7%.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 04/04/2025

By Auctus Advisors

Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.85 per share: Starting helium well test at Topaz – Well-testing activities at Jetstream #1 and Jetstream #2 at the Topaz project have started.
Well-testing activities are expected to occur in two sequential phases, the initial phase will focus on flow testing at the Jetstream #1 and Jetstream #2 appraisal wells, followed by a second phase of extended pressure build-up monitoring.
The initial phase of flow testing is expected to continue over approximately four weeks.

Semi Revenues: Feb-25 Revenues Are Good. Let’s Have a Look Back at 2008-09 for a Worst-Case Scenario

By Nicolas Baratte

Global Semi revenues are good, up 17% YoY, on a plateau of high growth (~20%) for the 14th month. But worries about potential tariffs have boosted demand since Nov-24.
Building up precautionary inventory ahead of tariffs could morph into the opposite from April-25: if you now expect demand destruction, you’ll squeezing down inventories as much as possible.
This is where the 2008-9 period is instructive. Semi revenues contracted by an average -20% YoY for a long period of 12 months (Nov-08 to Oct-09).

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Apr 04

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Charted Insights: Understanding the Impact of the US Reciprocal Tariff Plan: A Data-Backed Breakdown and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Charted Insights: Understanding the Impact of the US Reciprocal Tariff Plan: A Data-Backed Breakdown
Decoding Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Limited Shock for India, Sector Rotation Ahead
Ohayo Japan | Tariffs On, Risk Off
Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q25
No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?
Japan Morning Connection: Rough Start with US Meltdown but Trump Showing Willingness to Negotiate
Hardman & Co Insight: 2024 Pharma Statistics
South African Listed Property Review – March 2025
US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – March 2025

Charted Insights: Understanding the Impact of the US Reciprocal Tariff Plan: A Data-Backed Breakdown

In early 2025, former US President Donald Trump announced a new “Reciprocal Tariff Plan” as part of his economic strategy to address trade imbalances.
The plan involves levying additional tariffs on countries where the US runs a trade deficit, aimed at “equalizing” tariff rates between the US and its trading partners.
We analyze how the tariffs across major US trading partners will change post reciprocal tariffs.

Decoding Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Limited Shock for India, Sector Rotation Ahead

Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan imposes a 27% duty on Indian goods, sparing pharma and IT but impacting autos, textiles, chemicals, and solar exports.
Despite steep headline tariffs, India’s top export sectors, IT services and pharma, remain unaffected, preserving key revenue streams and softening near-term macroeconomic impact.
Investors will likely rotate into resilient sectors like pharma and IT while avoiding margin-sensitive names in textiles, chemicals, and auto ancillaries vulnerable to export-led earnings volatility.

Ohayo Japan | Tariffs On, Risk Off

US stocks cratered on Thursday in their worst one-day sell-off since 2020, with the Dow tumbling almost 1,700 points; NKY Futures weaker
Mitsubishi Corporation plans to buy back up to ¥1 trillion of its shares, acquiring up to 689 million shares, or 17% of total issued shares
An investment company associated with activist investor Yoshiaki Murakami has acquired over 5% of Fuji Media Holdings’ outstanding shares

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q25

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Copper prices started the year roaring: +26% YTD. US futures prices outpaced LME prices.
Much of the trade was driven by re-allocation of copper inventories to beat potential US tariffs. The White House yesterday exempted copper from any import tariffs.
Copper miners show a mixed bag, our basket of favorites was led by Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) which increased 182% YTD.

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

By Nicolas Baratte

Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.
There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea.
They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.

Japan Morning Connection: Rough Start with US Meltdown but Trump Showing Willingness to Negotiate

Huge losses for tech/AI/banks in the biggest selloff since Covid.
Intel gaining after reports it has agreed to a JV with TSMC for their Fab business.
Sec. of State Rubio pushing EU leaders to shoulder a higher defence burden; European plays higher.

Hardman & Co Insight: 2024 Pharma Statistics

By Hardman & Co

An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announce results for 2024, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database.
This report provides the first snapshot of global pharmaceutical market growth plus the global and US company rankings for 2024.
The year was characterised by 9.2% underlying (ex-COVID-19) growth.

South African Listed Property Review – March 2025

By Garreth Elston

March was an extremely busy month for the SA listed property sector with earnings, pre-close, and interim releases coming thick and fast.
The SA All Property Index was down -4.12% for the quarter, the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Index in ZAR was down -1.21%, and in USD down by -1.67%.
The best positions remain in property companies as insulated from international macro issues as possible, those with steady cash flows, tenants providing necessary products and/or services, plus low debt levels.

US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – March 2025

By Garvit Bhandari

Total public EV charging stations (incl. temporary unavailable locations) were 77,514 as of March 31, 2025. Compared to the end of FY24, it is an increase of 3.4%.
Total EV charging ports (including the temporary unavailable ports) were 217,353, up nearly 5.1% compared to the end of 2024 and up 2.0% over February 2025.
California has the highest number of active DC Fast ports as of March 2025 at 13,611 (~26% of the total), followed by Texas at 3,347 .

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Apr 03

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan
Thematic Report: Cooling India- Indian Air Conditioner (AC) Industry
Thematic Report : India–US Trade; Assessing the Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Exports
Japan Morning Connection: Trump’s Tariff Shock Set to Roil Japan with a 10% + 24% Baseline
US Banks – Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24
How the ₹23K Cr PLI Scheme Benefits EMS Companies – Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes
₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets
#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – GenAI and Knowledge Worker Productivity

Ohayo Japan | Trump Announces 24% Tariffs on Japan

U.S. & Nikkei stock futures fell as much as 2.5%, signaling a weak Thursday open. After hours, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla dropped over 4%.
The U.S. will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with Japan facing a 24% tariff as part of measures targeting what President Trump called “bad actors”
Fast Retailing’s domestic Uniqlo same-store sales, including e-commerce, rose 12% year-on-year in March

Thematic Report: Cooling India- Indian Air Conditioner (AC) Industry

India’s RAC market is growing at 18–20% CAGR, but faces a critical compressor supply shortage due to capacity constraints and BIS-related import delays.
Short-Term risks around component supply, margins, and inventory exist, but structural demand drivers and PLI-driven localization present long-term tailwinds for OEMs and component makers.
Despite near-term volatility, AC sector remains a strong structural story; focus shifts to players with scale, backward integration, and policy-aligned manufacturing strategies.

Thematic Report : India–US Trade; Assessing the Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Exports

India’s thriving trade relationship with the US has come under scrutiny following the announcement of the Reciprocal Tariff Plan by the US administration.
As the world’s largest economy considers levelling tariff imbalances with trade partners, India — despite enjoying a trade surplus — faces only moderate risk.
Here’s a detailed look into the numbers, categories, and sectors that matter

Japan Morning Connection: Trump’s Tariff Shock Set to Roil Japan with a 10% + 24% Baseline

Definitely a worse outcome than expected, but Canada and Mexico exemptions show the path to negotiation.
Firms with Vietnam manufacturing hit hard, as well as Apple given its exposure to Chinese manufacturing.
Nintendo’s Switch2 has taken a big step up – but without the big titles is it enough to spark a replacement cycle?

US Banks – Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

By Daniel Tabbush

US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally.
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating.
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY

How the ₹23K Cr PLI Scheme Benefits EMS Companies – Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes

India has launched a ₹23,000 crore PLI scheme for electronic components, targeting sub-assemblies, PCBs, and lithium-ion cells to boost local manufacturing and reduce import dependence.
EMS leaders like Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes are accelerating backward integration through JVs, capex, and high-value component manufacturing, unlocking margin expansion and strategic insulation from global supply chain disruptions. I
India’s PCB production is just 8% of its ₹236 bn market, where PLI-backed players like Amber and Kaynes could scale rapidly as import substitution gains momentum

₹4.02 Lakh Crore IPO Lock-In Expiry Wave in H1 2025 in Indian Markets

By June 2025, shares worth INR 4.02 trillion across 73 IPOs will become tradeable post lock-in expiry, including major names like Hyundai, Swiggy, and NTPC Green.
This massive unlock could flood markets with fresh float, increasing supply dramatically and potentially causing short-term price corrections, especially in already weak or overvalued stocks.
Investors should prepare for near-term volatility but also watch for dips in strong businesses as potential accumulation opportunities once initial selling pressure subsides.

#130 India Insight: Textile Aims $100B Exports, Wind Energy Hits 48.5 GW, Data Centers Reach $10B

Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN) Semicon to deliver India’s first packaged semiconductor chips by July 2025, supported by a multi-year deal.
Bank Of America (BAC US) expects RBI to cut the repo rate to 6% in April, with a target of 5.5% by year-end.
Vadilal Industries (VDI IN) settles promoter dispute, plans leadership restructuring and board reconstitution to improve governance and growth.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – GenAI and Knowledge Worker Productivity