Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December
• Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November
• Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income

• Reliance Jio plans a Rs. 40,000 crore IPO, with pre-IPO placements underway, leveraging AI, satellite internet, and 5G growth.
• Eicher Motors posts 7% revenue growth, despite slight dip in Royal Enfield sales, with a strategic foray into electric vehicles.
• VI plans aggressive 5G rollout with 15% discounted entry-level plans, targeting 75 cities and aiming to rebuild its subscriber base.

• Periods of market euphoria often create fertile ground for substantial fundraising activity, where companies—both established and speculative—seize the opportunity to raise capital. 
• IPO surges and other equity fundraisers reflect heightened investor confidence and an increased appetite for risk.
• However, as history shows, such periods of exuberance are often harbingers of steep market corrections.

• What’s New? India surpasses $1 trillion in cumulative FDI inflows since 2000, reflecting steady economic liberalization and targeted policy reforms post-2014.
• Why It Matters?The milestone highlights India’s appeal as a global investment destination but reveals the need for balanced, inclusive growth across states and sectors.
• How It Changes Your View?Despite high FDI, uneven distribution and low FDI-to-GDP ratio suggest India must optimize policies to maximize investment impact and address trade imbalances.

• Welcome to my last portfolio update! Yes, you read that right! In the coming weeks, I’ll be announcing why I stop publicly sharing the details of my investments.
• But don’t worry—there’s even more exciting news ahead!
• I’ve made the decision to leave my current job by the end of this year to dedicate 100% of my time to stock picking. This shift also means I’ll be expanding the offerings on Contrarian Cashflows to deliver even greater value to you. Stay tuned for more details soon!

• India’s economy is surging, fueled by a record-high capital expenditure of 3.4% of GDP and a remarkable revenue growth to Rs. 25.8 trillion from Rs. 9.4 trillion in 2015-16
• Despite global headwinds, the rupee remains resilient, backed by $684.8 billion in forex reserves. 
• India is poised to become a global economic leader, mirroring China’s ascent, with its thriving services sector and ambitious growth targets.

• The podcast discusses the complexities of the chicken industry, including market structure, price fluctuations, and environmental impacts
• Industrial-scale chicken farming presents challenges for farmers and environmental sustainability
• The episode explores the potential for lab-grown chicken as a more ethical and sustainable alternative to traditional farming practices.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Board Gender Diversity and Turnover: Companies with higher female representation on boards exhibit lower employee turnover rates, indicating that diversity in leadership fosters a more cohesive and inclusive workplace culture.
• Female Workforce Representation: While female workforce representation correlates with higher turnover in non-real estate sectors, the Real Estate sector benefits from slightly improved retention with greater gender diversity.
• For SGX-listed companies, enhancing gender diversity and leveraging board experience present opportunities to drive both social and financial performance.

• Reliance Industries (RIL IN)  acquires Karkinos Healthcare for Rs. 375 crore, expanding its oncology services and strengthening its healthcare portfolio with technology-driven solutions
• Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)  exits its joint venture with Wilmar, raising $2 billion to invest in core infrastructure sectors.
• Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA), a Rs 18,000 crore public-private partnership, is set to open on April 17th, 2025, boosting India’s aviation landscape.

• Indian markets lead in global IPO markets by volume with highest IPOs in 2024 accounting for 25% of IPOs.
• Indian IPO saw one of the highest returns with participation from all the themes/sectors which is outlier to global trends.
• As we look ahead to 2025, the Indian IPO market is poised for continued success, driven by strong investor confidence, a thriving stock market, and a conducive investment climate.

• Alphabet subsidiary, Google Quantum AI, launched its latest quantum computing chip, Willow, which can solve a specific problem in <5 mins that would take a supercomputer 10 septillion years
• Share prices of quantum computing related companies soared in December, ranging from 4.5x in the case of IonQ to ~17x for Quantum Computing Inc. 
• D-Wave & Rigetti, both threatened with delisting in November, got their Christmas miracle with their share prices surging by 8x and 11x respectively. 

• Global stocks ended mixed as US markets retreated from yearly highs while Tokyo’s Nikkei soared past 40,000, highlighting diverging year-end momentum between markets.
• Toyota targets ambitious 20% return on equity through share buybacks and reduction of cross-shareholdings, potentially fuelling wave of similar corporate announcements.
• Honda and Nissan’s potential merger talks could reshape Japan’s auto industry and affect thousands of smaller suppliers.

• 2024 marks another year that our “Buy the worst” strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI’s +17.9%. Meituan (3690 HK) is the only winner.
• For 2025, the strategy will switch to Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Hang Lung Props (101 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).  
• The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.

• US and China are two biggest markets in autonomous driving and robotaxi. However, due to US-China decoupling, each market is off limits to the other;
• This makes non-US/non-China markets heavily contended. Uber and Lyft leads Didi and Meituan in globalization. But Chinese EV makers and ADS vendors might benefit from partnering with the two;
• We expect companies with low priced vehicle production capacity, like BYD, XPEV, LEAP and Zeekr to  benefit more. Among ADS vendors, WeRide and Poni.AI stand out.

• Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.
• A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.
• Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.

• Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;
• EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;
• SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others…

• Online Travel: Korea and Japan eased tourist visa for Chinese. TRIP.com saw traffic gains in C4Q24;
• Internet Platform: Scalping on government consumption vouchers in Shanghai will shift future programs to major Internet platforms;
• Online game: December game code approval was both big and commercial. NetEase and Tencent games were included.

• Wuxi AppTech is selling its US and UK-based cell and gene therapy unit to Altaris for an undisclosed sum. SK Bioscience expanded vaccine development partnership with Sanofi.
• Celltrion received FDA approval for global phase 3 trial of Darzalex biosimilar. Shionogi has announced dissolution of two joint ventures (established in Shanghai and Hong Kong) with Ping An Insurance.
• Kaken Pharmaceutical entered into a license agreement with J&J for the global development, manufacturing, and commercialization of a STAT6 program for an upfront payment of $30M.

• Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.
• Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a “non-essential” sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.
• Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH) and Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)

• Japan’s markets displayed resilience this week, with the Nikkei 225 surging 4% and the Topix climbing 3.7%, buoyed by a weaker yen that bolstered exporter gains
• Honda’s stock soared 25% this week, driven by the announcement of a massive share buyback of up to ¥1.1 trillion
• Sega Sammy’s stock surged 18% this week, fueled by the stellar box office performance of the film Sonic × Shadow

• Cochin Shipyard Ltd (COCHIN IN)  has secured a Rs. 450 crore order to build tugboats for Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ IN) , signalling growth in India’s shipbuilding industry.
• Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN)  is expanding beyond electronics manufacturing by entering the refrigerator market through a partnership with Cellecor Gadgets.
• VA Tech Wabag (VATW IN)  is making waves with a Rs. 700 crore wastewater treatment project in Zambia, highlighting its commitment to sustainable solutions and expansion across the African market.

• OCBC Investment Research increases fair value for Keppel DC REIT thanks to improved portfolio diversity and performance.
• DBS sticks with ‘buy’ recommendation for ComfortDelGro despite higher platform fees, citing CPF contribution costs.
• Both recommendations reflect positive outlook for these companies in light of recent market changes.

• The “January Effect,” where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
• The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
• Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024

• With a range of 34.5-68.1%, our five best calls in 2024 generated an average return of 54.1% YTD, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 26.2pp. 
• China Communications Construction (1800 HK) and Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) are expected to sustain strengths into 2025 on market value management and pick-up in new orders.
• Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), China Everbright Environment (257 HK), and SITC International (1308 HK) may hold their share price, but gains are unlikely to be as much as 2024.

• Foreign investors shifted focus from equities to debt in 2024, driven by India’s inclusion in global bond indices and expectations of US interest rate cuts, despite earlier equity outflows.
• Tata’s new semiconductor facility in Assam, set to operationalize in 2025, will strengthen India’s semiconductor ecosystem.
• Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN)  will begin trials for Tejas Mk-1A jets in January 2025, aiming to meet IAF delivery deadlines and ensure operational readiness despite production delays.

• Inflation spiked in late 2024 due to food price pressures but is projected to average 4.8% in FY25, with moderation expected from a strong rabi season and seasonal corrections.
• Weights of commodities experiencing inflation over 4% in the CPI basket, reduced from 79.0% in August 2022 to 41.6% in November 2024.
• Inflation is expected to moderate with a strong rabi season, record kharif production, and seasonal corrections in vegetable prices. However, risks from rising edible oil prices, and global factors persist

• Emerging markets like India, Indonesia, and Argentina exhibit strong optimism for 2025, driven by growth prospects and reforms, while developed economies, face challenges from energy shocks & slower growth
• Inflation, higher taxes, and rising interest rates remain top concerns for Indian households and businesses, but the country’s demographic advantages and ongoing reforms position it as a global growth leader.
• The coming decade belongs to emerging economies as they reap benefits of demographic dividends.

• OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025
• But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.
• More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.

• DBS remains optimistic on Seatrium after securing FPU contract despite ongoing investigation.
• Maybank Securities shows positivity towards SingPost following firing of three executives.
• Both companies are confident in their respective prospects moving forward, exhibiting strong faith in their decisions.

• Over the last decade, Indian consumer spending has shifted from essentials like food and housing toward services like healthcare and education, reflecting rising incomes and evolving priorities.
• Although food and beverages remain the largest spending category, their share decreased from 30.5% to 28.2% in the last decade.
• Within the food and beverage category, there is a growing preference for protein-rich foods and packaged foods while spending on staples like bread and cereals has decreased.

• DBS reaffirms ‘buy’ rating on Seatrium following FPU contract win, but awaits probe results before making final assessment.
• Maybank Securities optimistic about SingPost’s future after dismissal of three executives, sees potential for positive changes.
• OCBC lowers SingPost’s value after CEO and CFO exit, while DBS approves of CDLHT’s strategy to expand lodging accommodations and views OUE REIT’s Shanghai property sale favorably.

• Premiumization is reshaping India’s consumer market, with rising demand for high-quality products across FMCG, automobiles, electronics, and luxury goods driven by growing affluence and aspirations.
• India’s per capita GDP surpassing $2,500 and increasing digitalization have unlocked significant growth in premium categories, positioning India as a global hotspot for aspirational consumption.
• The shift from affordability to quality signals immense opportunities in premium segments, making it essential for businesses to innovate while balancing premium and budget-friendly offerings.

• The influx of prominent companies like Tata Capital and Greaves Electric Mobility entering the public market signals robust investor confidence and a burgeoning appetite for growth-oriented businesses.
• Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) commitment to a new refinery project signifies a strategic push towards bolstering production capacity and capitalizing on India’s increasing demand for petrochemical products.
• Gulf Oil Lubricants India (GOLI IN) broadens its reach by collaborating with Nayara Energy to distribute automotive products across 6,500 fuel outlets.

• India’s nuclear power capacity is projected to surge 2.7 times by 2031, reaching 22.3 GW and creating a lucrative investment landscape. 
• This expansion will unlock opportunities for companies like Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL IN), Walchandnagar Industries (WI IN), and Hindustan Construction Co (HCC IN) in manufacturing, construction, and auxiliary services. 
• The rollout of 50 Bharat Small Reactors (BSRs) presents a particularly enticing prospect with a projected investment of Rs. 2,00,000 Crore.

• Stocks climbed Monday to kick off a holiday-shortened week, buoyed by strong gains in technology
• Trading remained light and is expected to stay muted with early closure Tuesday and markets closed Christmas Day.
• Honda Motor plans to conduct a large-scale share buyback of up to ¥1.1 trillion (24% of issued shares) over the next one year.

• OCBC lowers SingPost fair value following departures of CEO and CFO, indicating concerns about company’s leadership stability.
• DBS supports CDLHT’s expansion into long-stay lodging by acquiring Liverpool PBSA, highlighting growth potential in this sector.
• DBS applauds OUE REIT’s sale of Shanghai property, considering it a strategic move to optimize portfolio and maximize returns.

• Discussion on the future of Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, including concerns about growth and competition
• Analysis of the potential impact of custom ASICs on Nvidia’s market dominance and revenue growth
• Consideration of the performance and prospects of major tech companies like Apple, AMD, Intel, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in relation to AI and cloud software developments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Karnataka’s proposed mineral tax will significantly impact iron ore miners and the steel industry, potentially raising production costs and impacting profitability. 
• Larsen & Toubro’s (L&T) recent ₹10,000 crore order for K9 Vajra-T artillery platforms signifies the company’s strength in the defense sector. 
• Waaree Energies (0656504D IN) is accelerating India’s renewable energy goals with strategic investments in electrolyzer, lithium-ion storage, and inverter solutions.