Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Banks – Flat Line Loans and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • US Banks – Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative
  • GEMWeekly (19 Jan 2024): China Macro; Baidu, Tencent, ByteDance
  • What to Expect In SK Hynix and Samsung Earnings Calls


US Banks – Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

By Daniel Tabbush

  • US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction.
  • With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks’ data, loans declined USD58bn.
  • Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters.

GEMWeekly (19 Jan 2024): China Macro; Baidu, Tencent, ByteDance

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarizes the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: China’s GDP growth, industrial production, and retail sales data
  • Companies mentioned:Baidu (9888 HK), Tencent (700 HK), ByteDance (1439927D CH)

What to Expect In SK Hynix and Samsung Earnings Calls

By Jim Handy

  • SK hynix’ earnings call has been scheduled for 9:00 AM Korea, January 25, and Samsung’s for 10:00 AM Korea, January 31.  What can investors expect to hear?
  • Three indicators have provided a preview of the two calls’ directions: WSTS, Spot Pricing, and Micron’s earnings call one month earlier.
  • The news for the market is positive, so expect to hear that these companies are making progress towards regaining profitability in semiconductors.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Money Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers
  • Auctus on Friday – 19/01/2024
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/9995HK/TCOM/1024HK/780HK/3690HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI


Japan Weekly | Money Forward, Advantest Top Performers

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese stocks have maintained their positive start to the year. The Nikkei average rose by +1.1% on the week with chip stocks leading the gains.
  • Money Forward was up +19% on strong Q4 sales (+42% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
  • Activist Oasis wants a say on Shidax MBO; Earnings season kicks up a gear next week

Auctus on Friday – 19/01/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$24 per share: Further exploration success in Colombia – The Perico-1 exploration well at CPO-5 encountered hydrocarbons in the Barco (Guadalupe) formation.
  • The Halcon-1 well at CPO-5 that also encountered potential hydrocarbons in the Guadalupe flowed at intermittent rates.
  • Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Reducing net debt by a further US$10 mm – FY23 production was 6,508 boe/d, which is the middle of the production guidance of 6.35-6.75 mboe/d.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/9995HK/TCOM/1024HK/780HK/3690HK

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV/ NIO: Xpeng and NIO’s weekly sales show weakness (-)
  • 9995 HK: Rumors about RemeGen’s ADC to Pfizer might be returned (-)
  • TCOM/1024 HK/780 HK/3690 HK: Ctrip cooperate with Kuaishou to promote traveling products (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1219 HK/SHEIN/AMZN/SE/MELI

By Ying Pan

  • NTES: NetEase Announces <Eggy Party>’s Spin-off Game <Project Three> (+)
  • 1219 HK/ PDD/ SHEIN/ BABA: Temu negotiating with J&T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
  • PDD/ SHEIN/ AMZN/  SE/ MELI: Temu launches in South Africa (+/-)

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024
  • Chinese Auto Chip Firms Racing to Cash In on NEV Boom


Ohayo Japan | TSMC Boosts Tech Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks higher on rally in Apple shares and chip stocks; AAPL +4% on broker upgrade; TSMC +9% after earning beat and strong outlook. 
  • Japan faces a crisis with 250,000 “zombie” companies at an 11-year high in fiscal 2022, a 30% rise, burdened by pandemic support and escalating debt, reveals Teikoku Databank.
  • Sekisui House launches $5 billion bid for US housebuilder; Fujitsu to refrain from bidding on UK projects; Honda expects 10% sales growth in US this year.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Chinese Auto Chip Firms Racing to Cash In on NEV Boom

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese firms are rushing to make their own auto chips as demand continues to increase in the world’s largest car market.
  • In 2023, there were more than 300 local auto chipmakers, nearly 10 times the number from three years ago, said Yuan Chengyin, general manager of National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, a NEV research center funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology.
  • China provides the best market for auto chipmakers as the demand for smart driving cars is much higher compared with other countries, said Zhang Qiang, chairman of Wuxi-based auto chipmaker Xinchi Technology, at a business event Tuesday.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | 10Y Back Above 4%; Weak China GDP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | 10Y Back Above 4%; Weak China GDP
  • China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023
  • Only 27 New Malls Now Due in 2024
  • Tech Talk: Smart Cities Delivering on the Promise


Ohayo Japan | 10Y Back Above 4%; Weak China GDP

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Stocks lower as Treasury yields continued to climb, with 10Y back above 4%, on back of strong retail spending. Odds of March cut fall 61%→50%
  • Nikkei Futures point to flat open; A weak print for China GDP likely to weigh on Japan exporters; MHI to trial carbon capture pilot at KEPCOs plant.
  • Japan recorded 25m tourists in 2023, reaching 80% of pre-pandemic peak; Yen remains weak at 148/$ – good rate for visitors

China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • Today’s NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
  • But the main caveat persists – the 2022 data (March-December) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales
  • Land sales /acquisitions figures, however, show a clear improvement on multiple (non-NBS) metrics, especially for major 13 developers 

Only 27 New Malls Now Due in 2024

By Michael Causton

  • Shopping mall development improved a little in 2023 but looks set to dip again as developers hold back investment in new builds in favour of refurbishment.
  • Sales continue to climb and are now at parity with 2019.
  • A smaller, but more efficient, mall sector will emerge in the next few years.

Tech Talk: Smart Cities Delivering on the Promise

By Water Tower Research

  • The global Smart Cities market size was valued at $1.5 trillion in 2020 and is projected to grow to $11 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of more than 20%.
  • While North America is currently the largest market, Asia-Pacific is projected to overtake it in a few years.
  • Smart Cities are urban areas that utilize digital infrastructure and interconnected systems, most likely using artificial intelligence (AI). 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Fall off Waller; English Please
  • AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?
  • China’s Pet Food Market – Attractive Investment Opportunities Would Bring Handsome Returns
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT
  • SPAC Talk – Why More SPAC Liquidations Are in the Cards
  • Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending January 12, 2024


[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK/1219 HK/1024 HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/ZTO/JD/PDD/1519 HK: Taobao/Tmall plans to direct traffic to stores and logistics providers with better service (+/+/-/-/-)
  • 1219 HK/PDD/SHEIN/BABA: Temu negotiating with J&T for cooperation in overseas last-mile services (+)
  • 1024 HK: Kuaishou’s Playlet Business Expanding Rapidly, DAU Reaches 270 Million(+)

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Fall off Waller; English Please

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared to push back against expectations for as many as six rate cuts this year.
  • TSE set to enforce English disclosures for all approximately 1600 companies listed on Prime market starting March 2025, aiming to attract a broader base of foreign investors
  • Nikkei Futs +0.8% premium; Asahi planning to hike wages +6%; Fujitsu acknowledges need to compensate Post Office victims;

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • What inning is AI in?
  • If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.
  • Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.

China’s Pet Food Market – Attractive Investment Opportunities Would Bring Handsome Returns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to the decline in China’s marriage/fertility rates, pets will play an important role in childless/dink families. Single economy is another driving force for the increase in pet penetration rate.
  • Pet food, as a high-frequency and rigid-demand area, is the largest market.As increasing China’s pet owners are attracted by domestic brands, import substitution space in staple food subsector is significant.
  • As an important incremental market with high certainty, the investment opportunities in China’s pet food market cannot be missed. We analyzed three companies worth investors’ attention. 

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/LI/XPEV/TSLA/1211 HK/TCOM/780 HK/ATAT/HTHT

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV/1211 BYD: Tesla announced price reduction for Model 3 and Model Y(-)
  • TCOM/780 HK: 4Q23 inbound and outbound travel recover to 82% of 2019 level, mainly from Hong Kong and Macao(-)
  • ATAT/HTHT: National Migration Administration introduced five facilitation measures to attract foreigners to China (+)

SPAC Talk – Why More SPAC Liquidations Are in the Cards

By Water Tower Research

  • SPAC IPOs continue on snooze control. Last year saw just 31 SPAC IPOs priced, raising an aggregate of $3.8 billion in gross proceeds, down from 86 and $13.4 billion in 2022.
  • This makes 2023 the quietest year for SPAC IPOs since 2016, when 13 IPOs raised $3.5 billion.
  • As we start the third week of 2024, the SPAC market remains dormant, with no new pricings to report yet. 

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

By Michael Causton

  • New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.
  • Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.
  • The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending January 12, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • It was another strong week for cannabis stocks, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 3.40% and the global YOLO ETF increasing 1.06%.
  • Since the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announcement on August 30, MSOS is +69.07%, while YOLO is +34.82%.
  • We are in the midst of a catalyst-driven rally, driven by the potential to get to Schedule III and remove the 280E tax burden, which affects plant-touching US operators.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Market on Hols; TSE Releases THE List and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US Market on Hols; TSE Releases THE List
  • Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 1/15


Ohayo Japan | US Market on Hols; TSE Releases THE List

By Mark Chadwick

  • US markets closed; Nikkei futures point to stronger open; VIPs head to Davos
  • TSE strengthens influence on CEOs, unveiling a list of companies improving capital efficiency and stock prices….and by omission, those that are not. 
  • Japan experiences an eight-year high in corporate bankruptcies in 2023, with failures increasing across all sectors due to surging prices, labor shortages, and COVID-19 relief loan repayments.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

By Value Investing

  • The red & blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)
  • Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.
  • This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 1/15

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • As we begin 2024, the past few week have been consumed with media chatter over the launch of new bitcoin ETF’s with predictions this would unleash a new bitcoin bull market, meanwhile price action in different market sectors have been off to surprisingly strong starts.
  • Regardless of your favorite market prognosticators’ forecast for 2024 (up, down, or sideways), catching emerging waves in the start of each year, especially paying attention to volume and price, can lead to significant outperformance.
  • For example, if you recall back to January 2023’s earnings call season, it featured an eye opening proclamation from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella that “We [Microsoft] fundamentally believe the next platform wave will be AI” which came exactly one day before Microsoft announced its rumored $10B investment in OpenAI.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nikkei Outpaces Global Stocks; Busy Week Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nikkei Outpaces Global Stocks; Busy Week Ahead
  • Crisis in the Red Sea, if This Persists, We May Need to Rethink About Victory over Inflation


Ohayo Japan | Nikkei Outpaces Global Stocks; Busy Week Ahead

By Mark Chadwick

  • In the upcoming week, market focus includes U.S. retail sales, bank earnings, Davos discussions on global economic challenges, China’s GDP figures, and volatile oil prices amid geopolitical tensions.
  • Fujitsu faces scrutiny in Britain regarding potential compensation for post office operators falsely accused of embezzlement due to glitches in its accounting system from the 1990s into the 2010s.
  • Yaskawa’s 9M financials show a 6% YoY net profit decline at 34bn yen. Motors and robotics, witnessed profit growth despite Chinese economic uncertainties. Orders may be bottoming

Crisis in the Red Sea, if This Persists, We May Need to Rethink About Victory over Inflation

By Mohshin Aziz

  • The U.S. and the UK have struck multiple military assets across Yemen in a bid to cripple the Houthis’ ability to target commercial ships and to send “a clear message”   
  • The Houthis are a battle-hardened regime, they are still around after an eight-year war with Saudis and the U.A.E, and chances are attacks over the Red Sea will increase   
  • Shipping rates have soared, and air freight will likely follow soon. Bad news for the flight against inflation  

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/000625 CH/0175 HK/601127 CH/9863 HK/9926 HK/ACMR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/000625 CH/0175 HK/601127 CH/9863 HK/9926 HK/ACMR
  • Japan Weekly | Market on Fire; Dalton Deploying Dollars
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH
  • Auctus on Friday – 12/01/2024


[Blue Lotus Daily]: 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/000625 CH/0175 HK/601127 CH/9863 HK/9926 HK/ACMR

By Eric Wen

  • 1211HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/000625 CH/0175 HK/601127 CH/9863 HK: Hyper Auto announces free charging for owners(-)
  • 9926 HK: Akeso submits new indication application for Cardonilimab BsAb treatment of gastric cancer (+)
  • ACMR : ACM Research publishes 2024 revenue outlook ( + )

Japan Weekly | Market on Fire; Dalton Deploying Dollars

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei surged over 2,200 points, or +6.6%, this week, outperforming global markets 
  • Strong results from Fast Retailing (+13% wow) and a sharp move higher for gaming heavyweight Nintendo (+13%) key stocks behind the index move
  • Activist Dalton and its listed fund have been very active in the past week, adding to seventeen positions

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

By Ying Pan

  • JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)
  • 700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation(+)
  • 3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)

Auctus on Friday – 12/01/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU) C ; target price of A$0.65 per share: Closing new farm-out transaction with MND/Amendment of agreement for Welchau farmout – The farm-out of 50% economic interest in a part of the ADX-AT-I licence has been completed and ADX has received EUR0.45 mm from MND for back costs payments. MND will fund EUR4.5 mm for exploration drilling.
  • ADX and MND currently intend to drill either the LICHT or the IRR gas exploration prospect during 2H24.
  • ADX also announced that the farm-out agreement with MCF Energy regarding Welchau has been amended. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | CPI Caps Stocks; Nikkei at 34 Year High and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | CPI Caps Stocks; Nikkei at 34 Year High
  • US Banks – Credit Card Charge-Offs Soaring to 8.5%, Can Catch Some Off Guard with Focus on CRE, C&I
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024
  • Japan’s Drugstores Taking on – and Beating – Supermarkets
  • State Companies’ Rush to Clean Energy Sparks Bubble Fears


Ohayo Japan | CPI Caps Stocks; Nikkei at 34 Year High

By Mark Chadwick

  • S&P -0.13% as annual CPI comes in at 3.4% vs exp 3.2%. March rate cut odds down to 65%.
  • Nikkei at 34 year high as revamped NISA attracts funds; Yen falls to one month low; Japan to earmark $130b for decarbonization
  • Nikkei futures +0.5% premium to cash; Daiwa House massive CB issue; Fujitsu faces growing calls to compensate Post Office victims in UK. Uniqlo beats estimates

US Banks – Credit Card Charge-Offs Soaring to 8.5%, Can Catch Some Off Guard with Focus on CRE, C&I

By Daniel Tabbush

  • For US banks outside the largest 100, credit card charge off rates are soaring now at 8.5% compared with a total charge off rate of 0.25%
  • Often smaller finance companies or non-traditional banks can see deterioration that hits the mainstream later, like in Thailand in 1997, and  like with HSBC Finance, Countrywide, Indymac in the past.
  • Ally Financial has already revealed a renewed surge of credit costs in 3Q23, defying the decline in the preceding two quarters. Maybe COF and others will show this too?

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 5-11, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Japan’s Drugstores Taking on – and Beating – Supermarkets

By Michael Causton

  • Major food-drugstores like Kusuri no Aoki and Genky Drugstores continue to pressure local supermarket competition. 
  • The model of funding discount foods and FMCG via high profit pharmaceutical and cosmetics ranges is one that traditional food chains cannot match.
  • Now the largest players are creating brands and expanding into new regions. Many analysts have predicted saturation in the sector in the last decade. They continue to be wrong.

State Companies’ Rush to Clean Energy Sparks Bubble Fears

By Caixin Global

  • China’s largest state-owned companies have poured hundreds of billions of yuan into wind and solar power projects, putting the country on course to hit its clean energy target six years ahead of schedule.
  • But the investment frenzy has also raised concerns over profitability and waste.
  • China has seen explosive growth in photovoltaic and wind power over the past three years as Beijing pushes to achieve a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet these goals, China in 2020 set a target to install 1.2 billion kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity by 2030. The country has moved faster than planned.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Megacaps Rally; Japan to Tighten in April? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Megacaps Rally; Japan to Tighten in April?
  • Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
  • China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context
  • The cocoa question


Ohayo Japan | Megacaps Rally; Japan to Tighten in April?

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks climb led by Nvidia (+2.3%) following strong TSMC results. Amazon and Microsoft stronger
  • Japanese stocks set for strong open. NKY Futs point 1.4% higher; Former BoJ member expects end to low rates in April
  • Suzuki delays launch of new EV but Honda unveils new EVs at CES; Daiwa House to acquire US home builder

Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

By Andrew Lu

  • Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8″/12″ raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system, design service, and semi equipment and material vendors but y/y deterioration for PC/server and gaming vendors. 
  • After 9 vendors beating consensus, we might see smartphone IC and RF, semi equipment OEM, and design service vendors in US to report a better than expected 4Q23 sales/earnings.    
  • After 6 vendors missing consensus, we might see PC/general server IC and niche memory vendors in US to report a worse than expected 4Q23 sales and earnings.

China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context

By Robert Ciemniak

  • China’s Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022
  • The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus
  • The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. “monetarization”

The cocoa question

By Michael Fritzell

  • In the past year, cocoa prices have spiked to elevated levels.

  • The culprit has been heavy rainfall in West Africa, leading to poor cocoa crops.

  • There’s nothing suggesting that the tightness in the cocoa market will end anytime soon. 


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