Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• Opposition coalition forming against Takaichi, but unlikely to succeed given vast policy differences
• Samsung big beat this morning shows the memory super cycle may be a real thing
• Softbank to surge with ARM architecture used in latest Broadcom/NVDA multi-year deal for ASIC

• A day of celebration with the Israel–Gaza peace deal, but markets took greater comfort from President Trump’s softer tone on China – dialling back tariff threats and easing geopolitical tension.
• Japan returns from holiday having largely sidestepped last week’s global sell-off. A modest reset is likely, but domestic investors can count themselves fortunate to have missed the worst of it.
• Broadcom–OpenAI supply deal lifted US tech sentiment, though its impact on Japan’s semiconductor food chain should be limited. Local focus remains firmly on domestic politics.

• Sun Corp (6736 JP): A deep-value holding company trading below the value of its 44% stake in NASDAQ-listed Cellebrite; positioned as a discounted proxy on the growth of digital forensics. 
• MegaChips (6875 JP): A fabless semiconductor firm with a legacy ASIC business but a hidden asset in its ¥160 billion SiTime stake; City Index Eleven to pressure value unlock
• KeePer (6036 JP): A high-margin car detailing business with embedded optionality through its SOFT99 stake; activist entry by Misaki Capital ensures governance pressure.

• Following Trump’s threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
• The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 
• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.

• US-China tensions escalate: Trump threatens new tariffs; Beijing tightens rare earth export rules. 
• Equities slump: Dow -2.2%, S&P 500 -2.7%, Nasdaq -3.6%. AI & politics weigh on Japan.
• NKY Futures -6% discount to cash. Luckily Japan on holiday on Monday. 

• Q225 WFE billing amounted to $33 billion, up 24% YoY and up 3% QoQ. China was the biggest spender with billings of $11.36 billion, +11% QoQ, albeit down 7% YoY
• A US select committee on China WFE spending, published on October 7 last, highlights multiple gaps with existing US restrictions on China WFE and proposes nine separate remedies
• Remedies include sweeping China country-wide bans, bans on related components, consumables & deploying “incentives & leverage” with allies so they follow suit. Still wondering about China’s surprise rare earth move?

• The weak monsoon has slowed AC sales, leading to an excess of inventory. This disruption has caused delays in sales cycles, resulting in inventory challenges for dealers and manufacturers.
• While festive demand and lower prices may boost sales, competition remains fierce, and margins are under pressure. Manufacturers face challenges in maintaining profitability amidst shifting market dynamics.
• The industry is transitioning, influenced by policy changes, weather shifts, and evolving consumer preferences. These factors are reshaping demand and will significantly impact the market’s growth in the future.

• InnoCare Pharma granted global rights to Zenas BioPharm to develop and commercialize an experimental drug, orelabrutinib for multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune conditions. The deal is worth of $2B+.
• Daiichi Sankyo submitted application for additional indication of Enhertu as first-line therapy for HER2 positive breast cancer in Japan. Celltrion got FDA clearance for its Eylea biosimilar, Eydenzelt.
• Mesoblast announced gross revenue of $22M from Ryoncil for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, up 66% QoQ. Lupin will invest $250M for new pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in Florida.

• CGS International’s Ong raises BRC Asia target price to $5.30 amid high demand.
• RHB raises DBS target price to $57.10 after stock reaches a new high.
• UOB Kay Hian maintains Keppel REIT at ‘buy’ with a $1.20 target after Sydney mall buy.

• India’s mutual fund AUM tripled from INR 24.5 trillion in FY19 to INR 67.4 trillion in FY25, driven by strong retail inflows and digital adoption.
• Canara Robeco AMC, India’s second-oldest fund house, manages INR 1.11 lakh crore in AUM with a 55% profit CAGR between FY23 and FY25.
• With 87% of AUM from retail investors, Canara Robeco AMC has the highest retail concentration among India’s top 10 mutual fund companies.

• Equity Surge: Japanese stocks rallied as investors priced in Abenomics-style stimulus under PM-elect Takaichi, with Nikkei +5%, Topix +2%. 
• Infrastructure and tech led gains: SoftBank, Yaskawa, Fujikura, Mani, and Fast Retailing surged on earnings beats, robotics expansion, and growth in data center components. 
• Risks: Political fragility, inflation-wage pressures, and US reaction to yen depreciation pose potential hurdles to market optimism.

• There is a lot going on in crypto, almost too much to track.
• In this edition of Tech Talk, we have pulled together some of the interesting happenings and latest news, as well as some of the best sources going forward.
• The cryptocurrency market has recently shown significant volatility but is currently on an upward trend, with Bitcoin surging to a two-month high above $120,000 and Ethereum reclaiming the $4,500 mark.

• erica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: Another operational setback at Triton; value and distribution profile intact – Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production.
• Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved.
• In the absence of further clarity, we conservatively assume that Triton production will be constrained until the scheduled Bittern pipeline shutdown in November.

• Xiaomi Corp. has launched its latest flagship smartphone lineup, the Xiaomi 17, in a direct challenge to Apple Inc., adopting a naming strategy and design that closely mirrors the U.S. tech giant’s latest iPhone.
• At a launch event held Sept. 25, the Chinese electronics maker introduced the Xiaomi 17, 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max, skipping 16 in its series to align with Apple’s recently released iPhone 17 lineup. The new models feature a rear camera layout, screen dimensions and back panel aesthetics that bear a strong resemblance to Apple’s newest devices.
• Xiaomi also introduced a magnetic power bank compatible with all iPhone 17 models. “We do what the iPhone doesn’t,” founder and CEO Lei Jun said at the launch event.

• India likely to have surplus sugar production in sugar season 2025-26
• Chickpea imports from Australia likely to decline by more than 50% in 2025- 26
• Soybean production likely to fall to 10.5 mt in current kharif season

• Private capital raising has become harder compared to 2021.
• IPOs are off the table until at least 2026, and most exits now happen via secondaries or distressed M&A.
• Investors demand profitability, not growth stories.

• Ahold Delhaize | clear market leader in online in the Netherlands Yesterday, Twinkle – an online platform on e-commerce – published its annual list of the 10 largest online sellers in the Netherlands.
• Like last year, Ahold Delhaize’s bol and Albert Heijn ranked #1 and #2 on this list and even managed to extend their lead over the companies occupying the next three ranks.
• Most remarkable is the almost 17% drop in Amazon’s revenues.

• NVDA +1.8% hit fresh highs on the UAE deal, but gains failed to ignite broader tech sector. What does that do for Japan’s AI-beneficiaries trade?
• Panasonic +11% WTD has been riding high on strong Tesla sales numbers, so NHTSA investigations into red-light violations could be a red flag
• With LDP–Komeito/Takaichi talks still unresolved, Friday looks like a “wait-and-see.”

• Discussion on NEO clouds and AI infrastructure landlords
• Differentiation between hyperscalers and Neo clouds in terms of business models and focus on AI workloads
• Consideration of critical software in DevOps and AI API software as a factor in defining a hyperscaler’s offerings and differentiation from Neo clouds

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• Kokusai Electric deal yesterday with AMAT selling a 10.7m clip is a mere morsel for the market and helps clear overhead risk.
• This creates a good setup for long Kokusai short Advantest which should see some reticence creep in as it hits the NKY CPAF cap.
• Trump is trying to force homebuilders to build more as a panacea for the housing affordability crisis. Not good for margins.

• Wilmar International may have passed its worst phase.
• RHB downgrades Keppel REIT to neutral following Australian retail acquisition news.
• OCBC: ST Engineering’s growth is intact, but its risk-reward is now balanced.

• Maharashtra cabinet approves gems and jewelry policy 2025 to attract investments of Rs.1 tln
• India becomes net importer of finished steel in September 2025
• Project completions in machinery industry falls to Rs.23.7 billion in September 2025 quarter

• China dominates the global battery market and its manufacturers are expanding production rapidly into international markets.  Players like CATL support global automakers with the most advanced battery technology.
• Growth of renewable energy has increased demand for Energy Storage Solutions (ESS). ESS stores energy from renewable sources, stabilizes the power grid, and provides power for industrial and commercial buildings. 
• China’s battery companies are benefiting from AI data center (AIDC) storage growth, which has created intense demand for specialized energy storage solutions for this sector.

• China’s public sector units are experiencing significant technological advancements, particularly in AI chip performance through innovative methods like hybrid bonding and e-beam metrology.
• The relocation of Semicon West has resulted in a notable increase in attendance, showcasing the growing interest and investment in the US semiconductor industry.
• Beijing is intensifying its tech regulations, particularly concerning rare earth materials, while a Taiwanese drone manufacturer seeks to disrupt DJI’s market position with a substantial military contract.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, driven by information technology, utilities, and industrials sectors reaching fresh closing highs, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.1%.
• Nvidia shares climbed 2% after CEO Jensen Huang reported substantially higher computing demand over the past six months and confirmed the company’s involvement in funding Elon Musk’s xAI
• SoftBank Group is acquiring Swiss engineering firm ABB’s robotics division for $5.4 billion.

• Singapore Depository Receipts (SDRs) have a relatively short history.
• They were launched in April 2023, compared to American Depository Receipts (ADRs) which took off in the 1980s with Chinese securities joining in the 2010s.
• Started off with Thai stocks, the SDR market gathered strong momentum with the offering of Hong Kong stocks in October 2024.

• Memory and specifically DRAM and NAND surges as memory makers delay enterprise pricing guidance as supply/demand imbalance grows.
• As AMD-Samsung vs NVDA-SK Hynix alliances form, Micronics should be the big winner.
• Factory automatic and robotics stocks the next AI winners? Masa thinks so.

• Maharashtra govt announces compensation package of Rs.316.2 bln for flood hit farmers
• Project completions in processed foods industry falls to Rs.140 million in September 2025 quarter
• Area under coconut cultivation in Gujarat rises by 27% in 10 years

• AI stocks eased Tuesday as Oracle fell up to 7%, closing 2% lower, after reports suggested its cloud business margins were below Wall Street expectations.
• Tesla shares fell 4% after unveiling a cheaper Model Y priced below $40,000, raising investor concerns over profit margins and demand sustainability.
• Parent-Child listings in Japan fell 60% to 168 by September 2025, as governance reforms boosted capital efficiency and made the market more attractive to overseas investors.

• Lawmakers accuse semi-caps for helping make China make chips. What else would their equipment do?
• HDD names swoon yet pure play Sandisk stays firm. Wafers down after small-cap Aehr somehow rattles markets.
• Mixed tape for Homebuilders with James Hardie surging on numbers while rest of sector sags on a downgrade.

• UOBKH predicts Banyan Tree’s residences will boost growth in 2027.
• RHB’s Natarajan calls Stoneweg European Stapled Trust a ‘buy’ for data centre growth.
• Maybank upgrades Lendlease REIT to ‘buy’ due to lower funding costs and positive factors.

• EV charging stations totaled 83,226 nationwide (September 2025), rising 0.8% month-on-month, but the pace remains inadequate to achieve NREL’s 2030 goal of 1M Level 2 and 182k DC Fast chargers.
• California leads with 24% of stations and 26% of ports, while Tesla dominates DC Fast charging (54% share). ChargePoint maintains overall leadership with 33% of total ports across its network.
• Ultrafast charging is the emerging trend, with 600kW–1.6MW systems from ChargePoint, BYD, CATL, and Zeekr offering range gains up to 300km in five minutes and setting a new global benchmark.

• Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
• Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
• If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

• India’s home appliances and consumer electronics market, worth INR 6.9 trillion in 2025, is projected to reach INR 11 trillion by 2029, fueled by premiumization and urban demand.
• With over 35,600 retail touchpoints and two major manufacturing hubs meeting 80% of domestic demand, LG Electronics India dominates key categories like TVs, ACs, and washing machines.
• Delivering 12.8% EBITDA margins and a 36.9% RoE, LG Electronics India outperforms peers, supported by innovation, brand trust, and a debt-free balance sheet.

• Indian industry commissions projects worth Rs.1.5 trillion in September 2025 quarter
• Project completions in food products industry falls to Rs.5 billion in September 2025 quarter
• Project completions in pesticides industry falls to Rs.741.9 million in September 2025 quarter

• The WTR Consumer Index underperformed the S&P SmallCap 600 in September, declining 2.5% versus the 2.7% increase in the broader market.
• The change in 12-month prospective earnings was about the same for both, +0.1% for the WTR Consumer Index and +0.2% for the S&P SmallCap 600, but the prospective P/E ratio for our index compressed 0.43x to 16.34x, while the broader index prospective P/E ratio expanded 0.41x to 16.58x.
• Our index went from trading at a 4% premium to the market in August to a 1% discount at the end of September.

• AI momentum and chip optimism drove fresh record highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500, as resilient markets looked past the US shutdown toward Fed guidance and rate-cut hopes
• JP equities price in policy-led cycle under Takaichi – AI hardware, cybersecurity, nuclear, defence themes leading. Weaker yen / fiscal support to benefit exporters / cyclicals.
• Expect further buying in Takaichi “names.” Nikkei trend is bullish but short-term overbought. Strong open likely given overnight NKY futures

• Outperforming memory and NVDA takes a break while semi-cap and AMD related surge.
• Wafer names continue to rise with Siltronic +9.2% taking gains to 85% since mid-Sep. Sumco, Shin Etsu and maybe even Tokuyama in focus.
• EssilorLuxottica took its Nikon stake up to 10.8% yesterday, but now reports it has approval to take this to 20%. Can squeeze a lot more.

• Discussion on the shift of Chinese startups towards targeting the global market instead of just China
• Analysis of ByteDance’s financial results showing international revenue growth but slowing profit margin
• Focus on the impact of Deep Seek and AI startups in China’s tech landscape, as well as coverage of other tech developments in Asia by The Information

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• US Government shutdown delays September jobs report, impacting Fed policy decisions
• Markets largely unfazed by shutdown, focusing on structural drivers such as interest rates and earnings forecast
• OpenAI’s ChatGPT integration with Shopify and Etsy may signal a shift in marketplace model, impacting revenue and customer touchpoints

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• India’s systemic credit is projected to grow 13–15% CAGR (FY25–FY28), with NBFCs’ share rising to 22%, driven by retail and SME lending.
• Tata Capital, 3rd largest diversified NBFC, manages INR 2.33 lakh crore AUM across 1,516 branches in 27 states, spanning retail, SME, and corporate finance.
• Backed by Tata’s 150-year legacy, Tata Capital offers 25+ loan products, strong phygital distribution (digital + 1,516 branches, 21.9M app downloads), and low GNPA (1.9% FY25).

• Central Banks added 15t of gold to their reserves, resuming buying after a hiatus in July. Seven banks added and two banks sold.
• China clocked tenth sequential monthly increase in adding gold to its reserves. Despite that, gold represents only 7% of China’s total international reserves.
• Poland, the largest central bank gold buyer YTD 2025 announced that it raised its gold target from 20% to 30%.

• The Indian automobile industry experienced a significant boost in sales in September 2025, driven by delayed purchases and the positive effects of GST reductions.
• The increase in retail sales highlights a strong recovery in the sector, which is expected to continue into October as the full impact of the GST cuts becomes clear.
• The sector’s strong performance and high consumer demand suggest a positive outlook for the coming months, with several key OEMs set for sustained growth.

• Discussion of major gold news in the market, including departures at Barrick and Newmont and China’s involvement
• Interview with Jeff Quartermain about Perseus’s journey in the gold market and his decision to step down
• Comparison of valuation landscape during Quartermain’s tenure at Perseus with current challenges in acquiring projects at a reasonable cost

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• RISC-V allows for design and implementation locally, compliant to global standards, with specifications available under Creative Commons and no licensing fees
• RISC-V’s customizable architecture, with a small core base ISA and various extensions, enables workload optimized silicon for different applications such as AI, ML, and vector processing
• Recent highlights include the availability of the RBA23 profile specification for high-performing application processors, Nvidia’s adoption of RISC-V for CUDA porting, and Infineon’s announcement of an all RISC-V automotive microcontroller roadmap, showcasing the growing momentum of RISC-V across various industries.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030
• For now, “sovereign” AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for “sovereign” AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars
• In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let’s see… 

• US indexes gained over 1% for the week, driven by AI optimism despite a U.S. government shutdown
• Sanae Takaichi won the LDP presidential election – strong on Japan defence, fiscal spending, growth and immigration controls.  
• Yaskawa Electric raised its FY 2026 forecast, expecting 48 billion yen in operating income (prev. 43b), and 525 billion yen in sales, surpassing estimates.

• No BOJ hike means bonds, banks, yen and insurance down, while defense and nuclear will do well.
• She is seen as a China-hawk so watch for weakness in China related plays.
• Overall expect a big leg higher for markets including in yen sensitive SPE and AI related.

• The 3Q25 results will be testing grounds to justify the multiple expansion, as our coverage saw a 2% downgrade in FY25 earnings since the interim announcement.
• Seven stocks will have over 100% YoY earnings growth in 2H25, implying strength in 3Q25 as well. Three stocks, however, will experience earnings decline.
• The stronger ones are China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), and Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK). 

• Daiichi Sankyo’s indication expansion application for Enhertu has been accepted for review by FDA for certain types of breast cancers. Santen’s new drug application has been accepted in China.  
• Hanmi Pharm entered into a global licensing agreement with Gilead Sciences granting Gilead the exclusive rights to develop and commercialize encequidar. Boryung is acquiring Sanofi’s cytotoxic anti-cancer drug Taxotere.
• IHH Healthcare received SEBI approval for mandatory open offer for 26% stake in Fortis Healthcare. Lupin has launched Liraglutide prefilled pen, bioequivalent to Victoza, in the U.S.