Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oct 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

Japan Weekly | Stocks Sink; Activists Lift Stakes in Rinnai, Topcon, Kureha

By Mark Chadwick

  • Topix fell 2.3% due to Wall Street losses as Jerome Powell cited high inflation, and global stocks were pressured by surging bond yields.
  • Major Movers: Small-cap, high growth stocks got killed, especially on any slight earnings miss. Consumer staples, regional banks outperformed
  • Activist Watch: Investors lifting stakes in Rinnai (-3.4%), Topcon (+1.6%) and Kureha (+1%); Yaizu Suisan’s outcome remains uncertain after a failed tender offer

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Rate Fears; Phase-Out of F-Gases for Heat Pumps Negative for Daikin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Rate Fears; Phase-Out of F-Gases for Heat Pumps Negative for Daikin
  • Indonesia Election 2024: The Conundrum
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 13-19 October 2023

Ohayo Japan | Rate Fears; Phase-Out of F-Gases for Heat Pumps Negative for Daikin

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.8% , Nasdaq -0.8%; Fed Chair still concerned about inflation; jobs data shows ongoing econ strength; Tesla -9%
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.5% v cash. JPY 149.8/$; Calbee to test biogas production; Disco expects weakness in demand to continue; Softbank to build data center in Hokkaido
  • JapanX: The accelerated phase-out of F-gases, though aiming to make heat pumps cleaner, may hinder the shift from fossil fuels. Daikin and the industry face challenges and need swift adaptation.

Indonesia Election 2024: The Conundrum

By Henry Soediarko

  • The Indonesian election will take place on February 14, 2024, and registration for president and vice president candidacies has opened starting today.
  • PDIP has nominated Ganjar and Mahfud, while Nasdem has nominated Anies and Muhaimin Iskandar, the deputy speaker of the People’s Representative Council of Indonesia.
  • It now depends on who Prabowo, the current defense minister and two-time presidential candidate, will run with. 

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 13-19 October 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Sink; Hitachi Role in Clean Power Revolution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Sink; Hitachi Role in Clean Power Revolution
  • China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023
  • October Restrictions Implications

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Sink; Hitachi Role in Clean Power Revolution

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.3%, Nasdaq -1.6%; Tensions in Middle East; higher oil prices; 10Y bond at highest rate since 2006
  • Today: NKY Futs -1.2% v cash. JPY 149.9/$; Inbound fully recovered; Socionext to work with TSMC
  • JapanX: Hitachi Energy has supplied HVDC systems in the World’s largest wind farm; company well placed to benefit from energy transition

China Property – Today’s NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • Today’s NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
  • It’s in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
  • But the main caveat persists – the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales

October Restrictions Implications

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 

  • For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.

  • I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | More US Tech Restrictions on China; Nidec & The Future of Urban Air Mobility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | More US Tech Restrictions on China; Nidec & The Future of Urban Air Mobility
  • Japan’s Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There’s Profit in It
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended October 13, 2023

Ohayo Japan | More US Tech Restrictions on China; Nidec & The Future of Urban Air Mobility

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX flat , Nasdaq -0.3%; Treasury yields resumed rise on stronger-than-expected retail sales
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.3% v cash. JPY 249.8; Keisei Electric Rail attracts activist interest; SONY/Honda unveil new EV
  • JapanX: Nidec Powering the Future of Urban Air Mobility; perhaps a new growth driver to think about

Japan’s Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There’s Profit in It

By Michael Causton

  • While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. 
  • But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.
  • This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended October 13, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index fell by 1.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.1%).
  • Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was up by 1.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was down 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 1.7%.
  • Revolve Renewable Power is an owner, operator, and developer of renewable energy projects focused on the North American market.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23
  • Ohayo Japan | Index Finishes Higher, Led by Tech; Honda/MitCorp Vision for Clean Energy
  • Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency
  • Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Gray Skies over High Point; Cloudy Conditions for Industry
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23

By William Keating

  • Samsung’s pre-earnings release indicates revenue increased 11.6% QoQ and operating profit has increased almost 4x QoQ.
  • According to Garner, Q323 PC unit shipments rose 7.7% QoQ. While this is the second such quarter of sequential growth, shipments in the third quarter were still down 9% YoY
  • ASPEED’s monthly revenue grew 32% sequentially in September. After 8 months of flat to no growth, this marks a clear turn around in the server market. 

Ohayo Japan | Index Finishes Higher, Led by Tech; Honda/MitCorp Vision for Clean Energy

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +1%, Nasdaq +1%; Stock rally was broad-based; energy lagged on lower oil price.
  • Today: NKY Futs +1% vs cash. JPY 149.5; MHI demonstration plant for CO2 liquification; Uniqlo raises salaries in China
  • JapanX: Beyond the Road: Honda and Mitsubishi’s Vision for Clean Energy

Solving the 2024 Logistics Problem Key to Japan Consumer Market Efficiency

By Michael Causton

  • The so-called 2024 problem will cause significant disruption to logistics in Japan, including potentially higher costs for major firms like Yamato and Sagawa.
  • Already, companies that move product by road, and particularly those working in e-commerce, are working hard to come up with solutions to reduce the impact of the new rules.
  • For the better-resourced businesses, this could lead to more efficient supply-chains in the long run, creating more efficiencies within Japanese consumer markets.

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • The Internet and Telecom bubble. Lessons in leverage, rates, and a smattering of fraud. What can we learn from that period to compare it to the current AI infrastructure build?
  • It’s time for a history piece. I didn’t touch the internet and telecom bubbles in my last history piece, but I wanted to save an entire piece for it.
  • I think it’s the best analogy for the historic boom in AI and infrastructure. Let’s see if there are lessons to learn from the past.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Gray Skies over High Point; Cloudy Conditions for Industry

By Water Tower Research

  • The Fall Furniture Market in High Point, N.C. brought the industry together last week to do business, celebrate successes, and commiserate.

  • We spent the day Saturday, the official opening day, while buyers and vendors had been there since the prior Tuesday.

  • The sky over High Point was gray and wet. So was the mood.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending October 13, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the MSCI World Index gained 0.36%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.94%.

  • The Russell 2000 underperformed again, losing 1.58%, while the NASDAQ climbed 2.35%. YTD, the Russell 2000 is -2.35%, the S&P 500 is +12.83, and NASDAQ is +28.10%.

  • This is surprising, as small caps typically lead off a bear market bottom. However, during this cycle, large tech is leading the way.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries
  • What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?
  • GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?
  • China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-15-2023

Ohayo Japan | Markets Wary of Conflict; Toyota and Idemitsu Partner on Solid-State Batteries

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: U.S. equities declined on Friday due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, leading to higher oil prices and a flight to safety assets like bonds and gold.
  • Today: Lawson increases dividend due to strong domestic business. Daikin eyes European heat pump market. Mazda targets EV expansion in the US.
  • JapanX: Toyota and Idemitsu Partner to Revolutionize EVs with Solid-State Batteries

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

By Eric Chen

  • The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.
  • That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.
  • They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.

GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The potential/market size of GLP-1 drugs is much greater-than-expected. Indication expansion could easily generate big returns. Investment strategy for GLP-1 drugs should be long-term, which is expected to bring alpha.
  • Supply-Demand relationship of entire market would change due to popularization of GLP-1 drugs.This is not only for healthcare, but also cause a change in the investment logic of other industries.
  • It’s recommended to re-examine stock positions in portfolio. Because each indication expansion of GLP-1 drugs would mean a decrease in demand in another field, leading to potential stock price plummet.

China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-15-2023

By Fern Wang

  • Country Garden default warning, Huijin’s Big 4 investments, Regulators reined in offshore new brokerage accounts, PBOC roles fine-tuned
  • China tightened rules on security lending to boost confidence of investors
  • September China Import/Export data continued to decline and Government bond issuance continued to support ASF growth

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

China TMT Update-Oct.14-3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK/Kanzhun/700.HK/CPNG:Douyin 1-Hr Delivery

By Shawn Yang

  • 3690.HK/BABA/JD/DADA/DDL/9699.HK: Douyin adds a more prominent entrance for its 1-hr delivery supermarket feature (-/-/-/-/+)
  • Kanzhun Limited: No signal for rebound in job market in China yet
  • 700 HK： QQ Browser today announced the launch of the “PDF Reading Assistant” , which uses Tencent’s own LLM Hunyuan to assist users.（/）

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 14
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Lasertec and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

Japan Weekly | Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Monotaro, Topcon

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: This week, the Topix Index gained 44pts (2%) to close at 2,309, influenced by Wall Street’s response to US inflation data and expectations of extended elevated interest rates.
  • Major Movers: Lasertec (6920) surged +17%, Fast Retailing (9983) rose +12%, and Monotaro (3064) declined -18%
  • Activist Watch: ValueAct lifted its stake in Topcon. I like the LT fundamentals for the company and look forward to positive dialogue with the activist

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 13
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?
  • Ohayo Japan | US Consumer Prices Surprise Again; Toyota’s Lunar Cruiser Showcases Innovation
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023
  • China TMT Update-Oct.13-KE/FUTU/BABA- Beike Acquires “iKongjian”/Futu Japan MAU/Lazada Waived Fees

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

By Jim Handy

  • There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
  • Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
  • Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle

Ohayo Japan | US Consumer Prices Surprise Again; Toyota’s Lunar Cruiser Showcases Innovation

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.6% , Nasdaq -0.4%; Concerns again as bond yields rise on higher than expected consumer inflation
  • Today: NKY Futs v cash -0.7%, JPY149.8/$; Surprisingly strong outlook at Uniqlo; Toyota to work with Idemitsu on Solid State Batteries
  • JapanX: Toyota’s partnership with JAXA holds potential benefits for terrestrial challenges.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 6-12 October 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

China TMT Update-Oct.13-KE/FUTU/BABA- Beike Acquires “iKongjian”/Futu Japan MAU/Lazada Waived Fees

By Shawn Yang

  • KE Holdings Inc: Beike is going to acquire the home renovation company “iKongjian” on RMB1.55bn
  • Futu Holdings: Futu Japan app’s MAU increase rapidly, then monetization pace is the key
  • BABA： Alibaba’s Lazada waived seller fees to take back merchants from TikTok Shop（+）

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 12
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Higher Again Ahead of Inflation Data; Why TSMC Chose Japan as a Place to Invest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Higher Again Ahead of Inflation Data; Why TSMC Chose Japan as a Place to Invest
  • China TMT Update Oct.12-Pdd/Baba/4385jp/BABA/LI/NIO/XPEV-TikTok Shop US/Taobao Management Change
  • [Blue Lotus Internet Sector Update]: Increasing Marginalization of Middle-Sized Companies
  • CHina TMT Update Oct.12-Pt.2-BABA/BILI/U:：Taobao Upgrades Membership/Bilibili Aims to Double DAU

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Higher Again Ahead of Inflation Data; Why TSMC Chose Japan as a Place to Invest

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX +0.4% , Nasdaq +0.7%; Exxon Mobil to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60b: Birkenstock slumps 12% on debut.
  • Today: NKY Futs v cash +0.3%. JPY 149/$; Surge in profits at ABC Mart and Bic Camera
  • JapanX: Why TSMC Chose Japan as a place to invest…it wasn’t just the subsidies

China TMT Update Oct.12-Pdd/Baba/4385jp/BABA/LI/NIO/XPEV-TikTok Shop US/Taobao Management Change

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD/BABA/4385JP：TikTok Shop US opened up, initial target categories in Mercari, ETSY and eBay（/）
  • BABA ：rumor says Taobao/Tmall looking to shuffle CEO（ / ）
  • LI/NIO/XPEV: AITO’s sales performance during the National Day holiday see good performance（-）

[Blue Lotus Internet Sector Update]: Increasing Marginalization of Middle-Sized Companies

By Shawn Yang

  • We view the recent cooperation between Alimama and Tencent a true change that both parties need to enter a new paradigm of business priorities in China Internet;
  • Middle-Sized social/video companies like Kuaishou and Bilibili have historically exploited the disconnect between Alibaba’s e-commerce merchandise shelf and Tencent’s advertising inventory. This opportunity is diminishing;
  • We raised Tencent’s TP by 4% to HK$417 while keeping Alibaba unchanged. We cut Kuaishou and Bilibili’s TP by 8% and 3% and maintain SELL.

CHina TMT Update Oct.12-Pt.2-BABA/BILI/U:：Taobao Upgrades Membership/Bilibili Aims to Double DAU

By Shawn Yang

  • BABA：Taobao upgrades its membership program in preparation for 11.11（ / ）
  • BILI: Bilibili Reiterates User Growth Goal: Doubling Mobile DAU( / ) 
  • U: Unity CEO Resigns After the Runtime Fees Incident ( + )

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free