Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors
  • AI Proliferation in Casinos a Blessing or a Curse for the Casino Sector Ahead
  • US Large Banks – Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve
  • GEMWeekly (1 Sep 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Xpeng, Baidu

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
  • IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture & storage, among others.
  • By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.

AI Proliferation in Casinos a Blessing or a Curse for the Casino Sector Ahead

By Howard J Klein

  • AI is coming to casinos, especially fast to Asian sector properties which are always early adapters of tech breakthroughs.
  • Ironically, without human contact, AI can produce far more personalized marketing campaigns with better returns than human contact judgments.
  • AI could be an exponential advance in fraud deetection, suspicious transaction reductios and problem gambling risk that regulator will embrace, if not mandate.

US Large Banks – Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans
  • Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY
  • Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week

GEMWeekly (1 Sep 2023): China, South Korea Macro; Xpeng, Baidu

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: China and Asia PMI data, South Korean industrial production.
  • Companies mentioned this week:XPeng (9868 HK), Baidu (9888 HK)

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Q2’23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Q2’23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook

Q2’23 Semiconductor Review & Outlook

By William Keating

  • Q2’23 marked a turning point with semi sales, memory, silicon wafer & PC shipments PC registering modest QoQ growth while smartphones and server shipments barely missed the cut.
  • Despite this positive turn of events, the memory segment remains mired in losses and the outlook for foundry is getting worse, not better
  • The much anticipated second half recovery will be muted at best

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Sep 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023
  • China TMT Update-FUTU/BIDU/700.HK/BABA/Boss Zhipin-FUTU Expand in Japan/Approval to AI/PMI Improved

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 25-31 August 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

China TMT Update-FUTU/BIDU/700.HK/BABA/Boss Zhipin-FUTU Expand in Japan/Approval to AI/PMI Improved

By Shawn Yang

  • Futu Holdings: Zero-commission stock trading to debut in Japan next month（-）
  • BIDU/700.HK/BABA: CAC has approved the filing of 11 LLM products and they are now open to the whole society(+)
  • Boss Zhipin: China PMI marginal improved, employment activities remain lukewarm

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Aug 31
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High
  • US Banks – Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further
  • China TMT Update-Douyin/Baba/JD/3690.HK/9699.HK-Meituan’s Cooperation with SF Intra-City
  • China TMT Update-Zlab/BILI/Tencent/NetEase-The Latest Batch of Game Code/Umamusume: Pretty Derby
  • [Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: NetEase Has Better Pipeline in Gamescom-Cologne
  • 10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation
  • China Property – The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

Ohayo Japan|”Past Peak Rate” View Spur Equity Bid; JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Reach Record High

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. Past Peak Rates – Equities continue upward trajectory;  9/11 SPX sectors  up as Tech leads; Yields down post weaker than expected ADP Employment; More China Measures for Economy
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.3; MOF FY24 Budget ~30trillion, +10.7%YoY; BOJ Board Member: BOJ May normalize in 2024; Govt Extends Gasoline Subsidy Program
  • JAPAN X: Tokyo’s Condo Prices Break Decades-Old Records, being fueled foreign buying spurred by weaker yen. Potential Boon for Tokyo Focused Developers-IF they can secure labor and keep GPM

US Banks – Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%
  • The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data
  • Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward

China TMT Update-Douyin/Baba/JD/3690.HK/9699.HK-Meituan’s Cooperation with SF Intra-City

By Shawn Yang

  • ” EastBuy 东方甄选 ” is conducting live broadcasts on Taobao.
  • JD.com officially launches the upgraded ” Spring Dawn Plan “
  • 3690.HK/9699.HK/JD: Meituan announces cooperation with SF Intra-city and others (+/+/-)

China TMT Update-Zlab/BILI/Tencent/NetEase-The Latest Batch of Game Code/Umamusume: Pretty Derby

By Shawn Yang

  • Novecure’s TTF Phase III trial failed to reach end point, negative for ZLAB （-）
  • “Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby” launched by Bilibili on August 29
  • NPPA recently released the latest batch of August approvals of game license

[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: NetEase Has Better Pipeline in Gamescom-Cologne

By Shawn Yang

  • At the recent Gamescom-Cologne event, both Tencent and NetEase showcased their latest games. We believe that NetEase has a stronger game pipeline compared to Tencent.
  • According to our estimates, the total annual gross billings from all the games showcased by Tencent should be around RMB 9-12 bn, while NetEase’s should be 10-13 bn. 
  • This accounts for approximately 6.3% and 15.6% of their respective gaming revenues in 2024. We maintain a buy rating for both companies, but NetEase remains our top pick.

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

By Tina Banerjee

  • On August 29, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.
  • The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.

China Property – The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists
  • The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates
  • Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days 

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Aug 30
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India
  • What Will BRICS Bring to the World? – The Rise of The Rest
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended August 25, 2023

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges ->NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen’s buying power at 53 year low; Japan’s jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate
  • JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India.

What Will BRICS Bring to the World? – The Rise of The Rest

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • BRICS announced expansion of members. The intention behind is obvious – Based on successful westward integration, the future pattern and trends of the entire world would already be clear.
  • Setting up BRICS currency immediately seems “too hasty”. However, as de-dollarization is a consensus, a suitable payment system would be established sooner or later given the economy size/resources of BRICS.
  • The international order is about to undergo a radical change, and the trend of multipolarity will continue to accelerate. This would put more investment options on the table for investors.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended August 25, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • RROYF provides a non-dilutive royalty financing solution (through a combination of short-term loans and the acquisition of revenue-based royalties) to privately held and publicly traded renewable energy and clean energy technology companies.
  • RROYF’s objective is to acquire a portfolio of long-term, stable, diversified renewable energy royalty and income streams to provide shareholders with capital appreciation and a growing, sustainable, long-term cash distribution.
  • RROYF is a pioneer and the first publicly traded company to provide this royalty financing for the renewable energy and clean technology sector.

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Aug 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan| Equities Start on a Positive Note; JAPAN X: Idemitsu Ramps Up for Solid State Batteries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan| Equities Start on a Positive Note; JAPAN X: Idemitsu Ramps Up for Solid State Batteries
  • US Small Banks – New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies
  • China TMT Update-Bili/XPEV/DiDi/SE/PDD-Xpeng Acquire DiDi’s EV Project/Temu Enters the Philippines
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending August 25, 2023

Ohayo Japan| Equities Start on a Positive Note; JAPAN X: Idemitsu Ramps Up for Solid State Batteries

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: US Equities start on a postive note with SPX, NDX, SOX all gaining; 10/11 SPX sectors rose; Tech lead as US Yields Fell; China Stocks Surged on Govt Measures
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 146.5; NKY records strongest day in Aug; JP Retail turn net buyers; Companies Make promises to boost share px; H2A Rocket Launch Delayed
  • JAPAN X:  Idemitsu Kosan Prepares for All-Solid-State Battery Era with Production Boost. All is is being driven by Toyota-which is leading to way to commercialization of solid state batteries.

US Small Banks – New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

By Daniel Tabbush

  • HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans
  • US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions
  • Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: In Solar PV Winners Go to One Who Count the Pennies

By Shawn Yang

  • The biggest debate in solar PV technology today is the rapid adoption of N-type solar cells (TopCon), championed by Jinko, vs. the cautious approach… 
  • To prolong the life cycle of the current P-type solar cell (PERC), purposely represented by LONGi; We believe this division is misleading.
  • LONGi’s strategy is far from simply squeeze out the last penny of PERC. We believe it represents a new thinking trying to set LONGi apart of the old investment logic.

China TMT Update-Bili/XPEV/DiDi/SE/PDD-Xpeng Acquire DiDi’s EV Project/Temu Enters the Philippines

By Shawn Yang

  • Bilibili has announced the latest incentive policies for the “Spark Program.”
  • XPEV/DiDi: Xpeng to acquire DiDi’s Smart EV project and establish strategic partnership with DiDi (+/+)
  • SE / PDD: Temu enters the Philippines ( – / +)

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending August 25, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • NVIDIA ended the week -2.02% but is still +215.02% YTD.
  • It was a quiet week for cannabis stocks and the US cannabis MSOS ETF drifted 1.21% lower.
  • Curaleaf (CSE: CURA, OTCQX: CURLF) +3.94% and MariMed (CSE: MRMD, OTCQX: MRMD) +3.30% were among the bright spots, while Ascend (CSE: AAWH, OTCQX: AAWH) -13.14% was hit hard again this week.

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Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Advantest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Advantest, Nihon M&A, Sumi Pharm
  • Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell’s Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank’s $7bn Boost for Local Startups
  • The Curious Case of Big Tech
  • US Banks – New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Nihon M&A, Sumi Pharm

By Mark Chadwick

  • A sharp reversal for Japanese stocks on Friday ahead of Jackson Hole, after four straight days of gains
  • Weak PMIs globally point to a cooling of economic activity, but Powell’s speech was fixated on inflation
  • Advantest was slammed 10% on Friday following a reversal in Nvidia shares, which initially spiked on record quarterly earnings. 

Ohayo Japan|US Equities Gain Post Powell’s Speech; JAPAN X: JP Bank’s $7bn Boost for Local Startups

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS:  US Equities rise for the first week in four; Jackson Hole: Powell leaves open possibility of further hikes/ECB’s Largarde strikes hawkish tone for EU;  China’s Economic Pain to Continue
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% Premium vs Cash; USDJPY 146.4; BOJ’s Ueda at Jackson Hole says Japan inflation below target; Kishida’s Approval rating improves; Japan to double EV Charging Stations.
  • JAPAN X: Japan Post Bank’s Trillion Yen Boost set to propel the Japan start up ecosystem to new highs – while creating a new revenue stream for the bank. 

The Curious Case of Big Tech

By MBI Deep Dives

  • In aggregate, Big Tech was worth $1.1 Tn at the end of 2012.
  • Over the last ten years (2013-2022), Big Tech collectively generated $2.3 Tn Operating Cash Flow (OCF), slightly more than double their aggregate market cap ten years ago!
  • To say it differently, Big Tech was a form of deep value investing that was deeply underappreciated even though they are all widely followed companies at that time!

US Banks – New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding
  • Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it’s worsening
  • Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug – growth is ‘off the charts’

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 18-24 August 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 18-24 August 2023
  • SPAC Talk – The VinFast De-SPACing Brings an Eerie Echo of Past SPAC Hype

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 18-24 August 2023

By Robert Ciemniak

  • A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources

SPAC Talk – The VinFast De-SPACing Brings an Eerie Echo of Past SPAC Hype

By Water Tower Research

  • August rush…the good. After a very quiet July, August has been buzzing with deal activity.

  • August has brought 19 new SPAC merger deal announcements.

  • This is the highest monthly total of the year, and we may not be done yet with one more week of the month left. 

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): BEA & Dah Sing – Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • BEA & Dah Sing – Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics, Not Totally Visible in Headline Results
  • US Banks – Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX
  • Rich Men North of Richmond, Return of Mask Mandates, and New COVID Variants
  • Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping
  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 42
  • China TMT Update-BGNE/300274CH/300750CH/1211HK/JD/2618.HK-JD Lowering the Threshold to Free Shipping

BEA & Dah Sing – Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics, Not Totally Visible in Headline Results

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Notes to financial statements show rampant deterioration in credit metrics for both banks
  • BEA’s write-offs in property development impaired loans rise by 4.1x in 1H23 vs FY22
  • Overdue loans by >1yr rose 277% HoH in 1H23 at Dah Sing, but it cut credit costs 48%

US Banks – Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

By Daniel Tabbush

  • 1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized
  • USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23
  • COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23

Rich Men North of Richmond, Return of Mask Mandates, and New COVID Variants

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, I discuss how the song Rich Men North of Richmond, return of mask mandates, and new COVID variant are all intertwined. 
  • “Rich Men North of Richmond” is a song about the excessive control of the government and the pressures of life. 
  • I discuss the intricacies of how these three stories are intertwined and how the certain sectors of the stock market could be impacted from the potential changes in government policies.

Ohayo Japan| Tech Sold as Yields Take Their Toll; JAPAN X: Tradition Ends-Japan Embraces Job Hopping

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  Higher Yields and Lower Equities as Major US Indices were lower; Focus on Jackson Hole Speech from Powell; Fed Collins Hints at hikes; Boeing Supply Issues.
  • JAPAN. NKY Futures -1.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 145.8; Fukushima Water Release prompts China Backlash; Gasoline reachs 15 year high – govt considers subsidies; Boon from Yen for Japan Majors.
  • JAPAN X: Farewell to lifetime employment ?   Japan’s workers are embracing job hopping. This is driving higher wages as labor get reallocated to higher value added roles.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 42

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Seven stocks remain, seven new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 122% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 35%

China TMT Update-BGNE/300274CH/300750CH/1211HK/JD/2618.HK-JD Lowering the Threshold to Free Shipping

By Shawn Yang

  • BGNE: Roche announced positive result for its TIGIT treating NSCLC, overturning negative result for treating EC-SCLC (/)
  • 300274CH/300750CH/1211HK: Customs data shows Chinese exports of key renewable energy items decelerated
  • JD/2618.HK: Estimates for the cost of JD lowering the threshold to receive free shipping (-/+)

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Aug 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japanese Still Saving: ¥19 Million in Average Liquid Savings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Still Saving: ¥19 Million in Average Liquid Savings
  • US Banks – HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions
  • South Korean Gaming: An Overview Post Covid May Contain Catalysts Investors Have Overlooked
  • Ohayo Japan|NVIDIA Crushes Street #s – Stock Surges; JAPAN X: JFE Adopts “Green Steel”
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?
  • China TMT Update-PDD/ATAT/XPEV/NIO/LI-Temu Increases Prices/Hotel RevPAR Declines/G9 Facelift

Japanese Still Saving: ¥19 Million in Average Liquid Savings

By Michael Causton

  • Japanese households were already saving at some of the highest rates on record before the pandemic due to government insistence that inflation was just around the corner.
  • The pandemic only exacerbated worries over financial security leading to further squirrelling away of funds, eliminating any benefit from higher wages on consumption.
  • As a result, consumer savings have hit new records, averaging ¥19 million in liquid assets per household and much higher for older households.

US Banks – HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

By Daniel Tabbush

  • High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag
  • US large banks’ loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks
  • Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially

South Korean Gaming: An Overview Post Covid May Contain Catalysts Investors Have Overlooked

By Howard J Klein

  • Investor focus post covid has been on Macau and Philippine recovery.
  • Basic economics and demographics of South Korea  favor a bullish cycle ahead post covid.
  • Kangwon Land Co. holds a revenue lead against all competitors due to its status as the only property in the country permitting locals to gamble.

Ohayo Japan|NVIDIA Crushes Street #s – Stock Surges; JAPAN X: JFE Adopts “Green Steel”

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  NVIDIA Surges after hours on Beat,  Buyback; US Yields Fall after weak PMI; China Braces for Trust Defaults; India lands on the Moon; RUSSIA: Prigozhin off the board
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futures +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.8; Japan to allow broader defense exports; Kishida quandry: Spend more amid rising Debt Costs; Japan Govt Budget: 60bn Yen for AI
  • Japan X.  JFE Steel Adopts “Green Steel” for Low CO2 Emissions in Cargo Ship Construction . This is just the start of a trend we expect to accelerate.

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

By Shawn Yang

  • C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
  • We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
  • Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.

China TMT Update-PDD/ATAT/XPEV/NIO/LI-Temu Increases Prices/Hotel RevPAR Declines/G9 Facelift

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD: Temu reportedly increases product prices in certain regions (+)
  • Atour Lifestyle: Summar vacation season is coming to a end, hotel RevPAR begin to decline
  • XPEV/NIO/LI: Xpeng to launch G9 facelift in September ( +/-/-)

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