Tech Hardware and Semiconductor

1. NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan. 
• He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
• NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.

2. Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
• Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
• The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 

3. NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
• NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
• Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.

4. Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
• Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
• China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development

5. Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.

By Patrick Liao

• Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.  
• Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.  
• In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.

6. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
• UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
• CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher

7. GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.

By Patrick Liao

• Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).  
• Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.  
• Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.  

8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
• GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 

9. PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding
• Key Industry Outlook Perspective — HP’s ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs… Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities
• Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle — Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value

1. Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
• TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
• The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule

2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
• AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
• Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
• ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
• CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR

4. Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
• This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture 
• If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening. 

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
• UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread
• CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

2. SMIC (981.HK): 2Q25 Guidance Shows A -5% in Revenue. Could This Reflect the Impact of US Tariffs?

By Patrick Liao

• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)‘s 1Q25 results were in line, while the 2Q25 guidance appears somewhat cautious.  
• The Americas continued to contribute a low-teens percentage to revenue, accounting for 12.6%, while China and Eurasia made up the remaining majority.  
• Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s top priority remains its strategic focus on core business and near-term execution.

3. AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
• AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
• Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.

4. Silicon Motion (SIMO US) Taps NVIDIA AI Pipeline, Sees PC Market Turning

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• SIMO beat 1Q25 EPS estimates by 20%, with strong gross margins (47.1%) driven by PCIe Gen 5 SSD controller mix and tight cost control.
• SIMO’s MonTitan confirmed as boot SSD supplier for NVIDIA’s BlueField-3 DPU, marking SIMO’s formal entry into NVIDIA-linked enterprise AI storage.
• Management maintains $1bn revenue run-rate target for 4Q25, supported by PCIe 5, UFS 4.1, and MonTitan ramps. We maintain our Structural Long rating.

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Next Gen Node Unprecedented Demand; QCOM/Mediatek Chips’ Peformance Leaks

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node is Experiencing Unprecedented Customer Demand
• Showdown Heats Up Between Qualcomm & Mediatek’s Next Generation of Mobile Phone SoCs — And All Roads Lead to TSMC’s Process Technology
• Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

By Patrick Liao

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
• It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
• Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.

7. Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Auto ICs over 50% of revenue and maintaining market share leading position, but 2Q25 guidance reflects China auto industry caution as China stimulus repeat impact fades and inventory stays lean.
• Himax advances in co-packaged optics (CPO) shipping samples; to supply TSMC and NVIDIA; Separately, Himax’s AR display tech may align with META’s needs.
• Strong auto positioning with 200+ Tcon design wins and CPO opportunity in AI/HPC supply chain reinforce long-term upside, despite soft near-term visibility. Maintain our Structural Long view on Himax.

8. Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

By Patrick Liao

• 2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
• 100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
• 2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.

9. Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

By Patrick Liao

• 2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
• 2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
• The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.

10. Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

By Patrick Liao

• We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
• The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.
• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 

1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher
• ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short
• CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs

2. Intel Foundry. Lowering 18A Expectations, Moving Away From Copy Exactly? What’s Going On?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• On April 29, Intel hosted the latest in a series of “Direct Connect” events, this time focusing on the company’s Foundry progress and plans
• They talked about “ups and downs” with 18A, seeming to lower expectations for the process node which former CEO Gelsinger “bet the company on”. Lots of emphasis on 14A instead.  
• Foundry chief Naga Chandrasekaran casually announced that the company was “walking away” from Copy Exactly and “democratizing innovation” at the fabs to fix yield, reliability, predictability and cost challenges. Wow!

3. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
• Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
• Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan’s Big Earnings Week and Apple’s High-Stakes Shift to India

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Major earnings week ahead: Taiwan names like Macronix, Lite-On, Delta, Mediatek report, while global tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple headline a critical week of results.
• Apple’s India shift faces hurdles: Apple plans to move most U.S. iPhone assembly to India by 2026E, but analysts caution full supply chain relocation from China will be difficult.
• UMC and Intel: Strategy and Uncertainty in Focus: Recent updates from UMC and Intel reveal supply chain adaptations and market visibility challenges for 2025E and beyond.

5. Delta Taiwan Vs. Delta Thailand: Valuation Gap Widens After Strong 1Q25; Why AI Now Needs Microgrids

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Delta Taiwan delivered record 1Q25 results, driven by strong AI data center demand; EPS beat Bloomberg consensus by 8%.
• Management highlights microgrids as essential for resilient AI infrastructure amid power grid instability, and challenges keeping national power supply up with data center expansion.
• Valuation gap widens sharply: Delta Taiwan trades at 22x PER vs. 60x for Delta Thailand, despite having stronger 2025–2026E growth. Weak macroeconomic situation also makes Delta Thailand highly vulnerable.

6. Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• Geographically diversified production, gearing to growth technologies, and consolidation of operations should support sales and profits in a difficult political and economic environment.
• Negatives largely in the price, but uncertainty over tariffs, exchange rates, recession, and the outcome of the takeover bid for Makino Milling also remains to be seen.
• The shares have rebounded from their recent sell-off but are still selling at only 15x projected EPS for FY Mar-26, the lowest P/E ratio in more than a decade.

7. Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• SK Hynix expects continued AI/server memory strength despite global uncertainty — Expects 2025E HBM revenue to double YoY.
• PC and smartphone memory demand experienced moderate recovery — Supported by China stimulus and AI-featured product cycles.
• Continue to view SK Hynix shares in more favorable position vs. Nana Tech shares — Especially in a scenario of global economic weakness.

8. MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.
• AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing — NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.
• Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view — AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.

9. MediaTek (2454.TT): Tariffs Are Highly Uncertain, but Client Purchasing Hasn’t Changed Much.

By Patrick Liao

• 2Q25 guidance is projected to be between NT$147.2bn and NT$159.4bn (midpoint-flat QoQ), with a gross margin expected to range between 45.5% and 48.5%, and operating expenses between 27% and 31%. 
• In 2Q25, MediaTek expects mobile to be flat to slightly down, continued QoQ growth in smart edge, and QoQ growth in power ICs. 
• Regarding flagship smartphone SoCs, MediaTek remains optimistic about gaining market share and expects the ASP (average selling price) of its next-generation flagship chips to continue rising.

10. ASE Technology: Demand Pull-Ins and Tariff Fears Create an Uneven Outlook for Backend Services

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• ASE slightly missed 1Q25 profit expectations; operating margin slipped slightly due to seasonal ATM softness and higher opex from LEAP and test investments.
• LEAP advanced packaging and AI test continue to scale; but still make up only ~6% of revenue; ASE’s exposure to vulnerable mature/legacy chip end-applications remains too high.
• We rate ASE Neutral, vulnerable to global slowdown; citing macro opacity, tariff-related pull-ins, and a non-cheap valuation relative to 2H25 growth uncertainty and risks of a market de-rating.

1. What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia. 
• U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match. 
• Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.

2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
• ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
• ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs

3. Faraday Technology’s Breakout: AI Packaging Demand Defying the Global Semiconductor Slowdown

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Faraday Top-Line Soars on CoWoS Chip Packaging Services Support Ramp — 78% of MP Revenue Came from AI/HPC Applications
• TSMC-Aligned Execution Enables Asset-Light Business Scaling for Faraday — New Fabless OSAT Service is Highly Differentiated; Competitive Advantage
• Outlook: Continued Very Strong Momentum into 2Q25 — 1H25 Revenue Will Be Higher Than All of 2024

4. SK Hynix Earnings Highlights Strong AI Dependence and Tariff Concerns

By Jim Handy, Objective Analysis

• SK hynix announced their second-highest revenue and operating profit for the first quarter of 2025
• Much of the company’s performance is the result of its first-mover advantage and excellent execution in the HBM market
• Two issues threaten the company: AI growth may stall, and tariff changes could interfere with the company’s global supply chain

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging. 
• AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds. 
• Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.

6. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)

By Patrick Liao

• After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
• Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
• Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?  

7. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

By Patrick Liao

• 2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.
• The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. 
• UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. 

8. UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.
• Intel Corp (INTC US) 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.
• Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.

9. Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
• Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
• LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That’s good.

10. Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.
• The company’s engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.
• Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.

1. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Delta Thailand Has Dramatically Underperformed Delta Taiwan — Delta Thailand Now Finally Trading at a Less Extreme Level vs. Delta Taiwan
• Latest Relative Growth Profiles — Delta Taiwan Has Higher Growth Profile in 2025E
• Even After the Major Pricing Reversion Since Mid-February, Delta Thailand Remains Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan

2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Close to Long Level; UMC & ASE Deep Discounts

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +14.9% Premium; Spread Has Fallen Close to Long Levels
• UMC: -2.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
• ASE: -3.2% Discount; Spread at Extreme Low, Good Level to Go Long

3. Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
• I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
• How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes

4. Intel’s Annual Shareholder Meeting Proxy Statement Has A Few Interesting Gems

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• We remain steadfast in our belief in our company’s future. That said, there are no quick fixes. We need to demonstrate consistent execution and results over a sustained period. Frank Yeary
• Intel’s ELT scored themselves a remarkable 29.7 out of 35 for their 2024 “Product Leadership” goal, despite mounting data center market share loss and Gaudi being an abject failure
• While Pat Gelsinger’s departure from Intel was labelled a “retirement” last December, the Proxy Statement refers to it as a “resignation”. Which was it?

5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC Accelerates U.S. Expansion — New Arizona Fab to Be Built at ‘Taiwan Speed’
• Phison CEO Sees Decade-Long Boom for NAND Flash as AI Shifts to the Edge
• Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive 

6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won’t Be Easy to Happen.

By Patrick Liao

• Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
• Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)‘s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
• If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  

1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Delta At Nvidia GTC 2025; Foxconn EV Strategy Win; Key Semi Industry Indicators

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• NVIDIA GTC 2025 Last Week — Delta Electronics Expands Role in Nvidia Ecosystem Showcasing AI-Centric Power Solutions
• Foxconn’s Huge EV Bet Pays Off: Key Mitsubishi Win Could Spark Additional Automaker Deals to Come 
• Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, and 2025 Forecasts 

2. Foxconn’s Huge EV Bet Pays Off: Key Mitsubishi Win Could Spark Additional Automaker Deals to Come

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Mitsubishi Motors plans to outsource EV production to Foxconn, signaling the most significant commercial validation of Foxconn’s MIH EV platform to date.
• While Foxconn’s AI server manufacturing is currently the company’s strongest growth driver, its EV strategy is increasingly gaining credibility as a second long-term pillar.
• Foxconn — Structural Long. We see depressed share price as buying opportunity. Mitsubishi contract win increases the probability for additional major OEM production partnership wins this year for Foxconn.

3. Silicon Box. A Sad Development & Sadly, Still A Black Box

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• On September 18 2024, one of the three co-founders of Silicon Box, Dr. Sutardja, sadly passed away. An industry visionary, much loved by many. May he rest in peace.
• The company’s website still does not reflect this fact, and an interview with their Head of Business just two weeks after his passing, bizarrely doesn’t mention it at all
• With just six press releases in four years, the company is slow to communicate progress and remains vague on precisely which specific technologies they offer. Still a black box IMO

4. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

By Patrick Liao

• The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.
• The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel’s foundry service.   
• UMC’s annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.