In today’s briefing:
- HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
- Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025
- India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood
- Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?
- Xiaomi (1810 HK): In 2Q25, Not Just Cars, But Fast Home Appliance
- BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY…
- Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) Placement: Innovative Pipeline Enlightens Growth Prospects
- Alibaba’s Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To “Others” Status | Implications for Chinese Express?
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Pre-IPO GenFleet Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII Index Rebalance: US$7.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Sep 2025)
- The September rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
- The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$57.55bn (US$7.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
- Alibaba (9988 HK) has flipped from a net buy to a net sell following its huge rally yesterday.
Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025
- September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.
- Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.
India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood
- The past month has witnessed a remarkable shift in India-China relations, with multiple high-profile developments signaling the most significant thaw in bilateral ties since 2020.
- Despite the expansion in bilateral commerce, India continues to face a significant trade deficit, especially in pharmaceuticals, where dependence on Chinese imports remains high.
- At present, the revived engagement seems to offer greater advantages to Chinese companies than to their Indian counterparts.
Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?
- The expiry of cornerstone investors’ lock-up today modestly increases Mixue Group (2097 HK)’s free float, which still remains below 10%.
- Mixue’s 1H2025 results show limited overseas scale-up, with growth driven entirely by the domestic market, raising concerns over long-term growth prospects from new markets.
- At 22x forward earnings, Mixue trades at a premium to HK-listed F&B peers, reflecting market optimism for above-consensus growth.
Xiaomi (1810 HK): In 2Q25, Not Just Cars, But Fast Home Appliance
- In 2Q25, total revenue grew strongly by 30% YoY and the operating margin continued to improve.
- The market focuses on car deliveries, but IoT is the largest contributor to gross profits.
- We believe the stock has an upside of 45% for the year end 2026. Buy.
BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Maybe Soon Is Time to BUY…
- In our previous insight we correctly forecasted a short-lived, 2-3 weeks relief rally for BYD (1211 HK) , followed by a new downtrend (started this week).
- The stock went into OVERSOLD territory according to our model, this week. It’s however a bit early to BUY, the stock could fall more.
- If BYD reaches 102 next week, or the following week, that would be a very good place to BUY. A catalyst could bring the stock back to 140-150.
Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) Placement: Innovative Pipeline Enlightens Growth Prospects
- Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) is placing 120M shares at the price of HK$12.95 per share. The placing shares represents ~5% of the current total issued shares of the company.
- The company intends to apply 90% of the net proceeds for the R&D-related expenditures. For context, Simcere has over 60 R&D pipelines of innovative drugs.
- Considering strong growth prospect of Simcere, reasonable valuation, and upbeat investor sentiment toward Chinese pharmaceutical sector, we are bullish on the placement.
Alibaba’s Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To “Others” Status | Implications for Chinese Express?
- Last week in its June quarter earnings release Alibaba “demoted” CaiNiao’s status
- It’s become clear that boosting eComm logistics simply isn’t a priority for Alibaba
- For firms that took investment from Alibaba & CaiNiao, implications are -Ive
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
- The US market was closed for Labour Day yesterday.
- Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in August declined 18% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m to CNY 207 bn (albeit narrowing from -24% y-o-y in July), according to CRIC.
Pre-IPO GenFleet Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- GenFleet’s R&D strategy is to layout around the RAS signaling pathway to construct a “RAS therapy matrix” covering multiple RAS mutation types.However, there’re barriers to the development of RAS-targeted therapies.
- The factors that suppress valuation include intense competition and potential patent risks. GenFleet’s independent commercialization capability has not been verified. So, a valuation of RMB3-4 billion is a reasonable range.
- Considering the sustained popularity of innovative drug IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market, post-IPO valuation of GenFleet depends more on market sentiment, not fundamentals.
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