In today’s briefing:
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
- Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
- Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
- Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
- Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer
- Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing
- BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies
- Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
- Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.
Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
- Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
- That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share.
- The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …
Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
- Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash.
- No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.
Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
- Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) plans to raise up to US$234m via its A/H listing.
- HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
- In this note, we look at the company’s recent performance and other deal dynamics, as well as valuations.
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer
- On the 7th March, small-cap property developer Soundwill (878 HK) announced an Offer from Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, by way of a Scheme.
- The Offer Price of $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, was a 62.84% premium to undisturbed. But a 87.66% discount to the (then) most recent NAV. Terms were final.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 23rd May, and payment on or before the 11th June. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable”.
Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing
- Sichuan Biokin reported 2024 results, with a large chunk of revenue from its product licensing to BMS.
- We analyzed its key products’ current clinical trials and upcoming milestones. We also look at peer performance.
- Overall, we are of the view that many factors bode well for Biokin’s H-share listing
BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies
- Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.
- Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout.
Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it.
- The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
- The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average
ICBC: Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning
- Consistent declines in fund ownership in ICBC finally hit a floor.
- Over the past six-months, 8 new positions — led by Goldman Sachs and Heptagon — have outpaced 3 closures, with 29 buyers versus 18 sellers.
- ICBC is the 6th most widely owned stock in the China & HK Financials sector, ahead of Bank Of China Ltd but behind China Merchants and China Construction Bank.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire
- Link has appointed a former Nuveen executive to lead its expansion into Japan, signaling the company’s commitment to growing its presence in the region.
- Amara Chairman is spearheading a $392 million bid to privatize a Singapore hotel group, demonstrating a growing trend of investments in the hospitality industry.
- ANREV reports a significant decline of over 50% in global real estate capital raising from its peak in 2022, highlighting challenges in the current market environment.
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