In today’s briefing:
- Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – August 2025
- Xtalpi Placement: Opportunistic Raise but Thematically Hot, past Deals Did Well
- Meituan (3690 HK): Down 12% After 2Q25 – What Spooked Investors?
- Trip.com (9961HK, TCOM): 2Q25, Stock Surged On Release Day, But Still 24% Upside
- Akeso Biopharma (9926 HK) Placement – We Are Now at a Critical Point
- AI Chipmaker Cambricon Inches Closer to Becoming China’s Priciest Stock
- GenFleet Therapeutics (劲方医药) Pre-IPO: Leadership in KRAS G12D Target
- Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) – Time to Take Profits (Bearish)
- Akeso Inc (9926 HK): Pipeline Prospects Shine on Positive Trial Results; Placement Looks Attractive
- [IO Technicals 2025/35] Iron Ore Bulls Charge on Tight China Supply
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – August 2025
- We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
- Our top picks are Asian Terminals (ATI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
- We have some very positive updates from Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) / Asian Terminals (ATI PM) and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), post their quarterly results.
Xtalpi Placement: Opportunistic Raise but Thematically Hot, past Deals Did Well
- XtalPi Holdings (2228 HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in a primary placement.
- The deal is a small one in ADV terms, at 1.6 days, despite leading to a 5.7% increase in shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Meituan (3690 HK): Down 12% After 2Q25 – What Spooked Investors?
- Meituan (3690 HK) shares fell 12.5% post – 2Q2025 results, reflecting investor concerns over prolonged subsidy wars and lack of visibility on when rational competition may resume.
- 2Q 2025 revenue growth lagged the pace of delivery transaction growth as incentives sharply reduced effective revenue capture while rising marketing costs nearly wiped out quarterly profit.
- Along side the rapid growth in China’s instant delivery market, where groceries and daily essentials are delivered in 30 minutes or less, competition among leading retail/delivery players have escalated.
Trip.com (9961HK, TCOM): 2Q25, Stock Surged On Release Day, But Still 24% Upside
- The stock price surged by 7.7% on the 2Q25 release day.
- Total revenue increased by 16% YoY in 2Q25 among which accommodation reservation revenue increased by 21% YoY.
- The operating margin was stable at a level significantly higher than the period before COVID.
Akeso Biopharma (9926 HK) Placement – We Are Now at a Critical Point
- OS benefit has been observed in HARMONi-A study, which however is just a small part of the PD-1/VEGF commercial landscape. The main battlefield is still the head-to-head trial against Keytruda.
- We think the current high valuation of Akeso has begun to price in the successful HARMONi-2 results to some extent, which however is not a done deal.
- Investors may need to be cautious about this placement, especially when the founders of Akeso actually chose to reduce their positions. Market cooling down may not be far off.
AI Chipmaker Cambricon Inches Closer to Becoming China’s Priciest Stock
- Shares of Chinese AI chipmaker Cambricon Technologies Corp. Ltd. (688256.SH +3.24%) surged Monday, bringing the company to the brink of unseating Kweichow Moutai Co. Ltd. (600519.SH -2.27%) as the most expensive stock on China’s A-share market.
- Cambricon’s stock closed up 11.4% on Monday at 1,384.93 yuan ($191.07) per share, just shy of the fiery liquor-maker Kweichow Moutai, which closed at 1,490.33 yuan.
- The chip company’s shares have more than doubled since mid-July and have climbed over 562% since September 2024. The rally has pushed Cambricon’s price-to-earnings ratio to 4,463 times, far exceeding Moutai’s 20 times.
GenFleet Therapeutics (劲方医药) Pre-IPO: Leadership in KRAS G12D Target
- GenFleet, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise around USD 250 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities is the sole sponsor.
- In this note, we look at the company’s core products, GFH925 and GFH375.
- We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.
Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) – Time to Take Profits (Bearish)
- Innovent Biologics published strong results that were ahead of expectations.
- Despite the upgrades, Innovent’s plus 300 PE multiple will only unwind to 53 at the end of 2027.
- Gauging from the disappointing results and poor share price performance from the two GLP-1 majors, the outlook for GLP-1s has deteriorated.
Akeso Inc (9926 HK): Pipeline Prospects Shine on Positive Trial Results; Placement Looks Attractive
- Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) announced the placement of 23.6M shares for subscription at HK$149.54 per share.
- The company intends to use most of the placement proceeds for R&D of innovative pipeline, platform, building of infrastructure and facilities, and commercialization of existing approved products.
- Expanded indications of cadonilimab and ivonescimab, the successive positive data readouts, approvals, and continuous commercialization expansion efforts into global markets augur well.
[IO Technicals 2025/35] Iron Ore Bulls Charge on Tight China Supply
- China’s planned steel cuts may lift global prices, while India and Southeast Asia’s infrastructure demand sustains robust iron ore consumption.
- Managed money participants trimmed net long exposure to 18.5k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 0.8%.
- Bullish MA crossover and MACD confirm renewed buying interest and strengthen the case for higher near-term price momentum.
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