In today’s briefing:
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
- Mixue (2097 HK): Time to Buy After Lemon Stockout
- Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Limited Upside as Effissimo Continues to Add
- Berkshire Hathaway Dumps All Its Stake in BYD – Impact on the Chery Auto IPO
- The Pinkfong Company IPO Preview
- Kraft Heinz (Nasdaq: KHC) Spin-Off to Create Value; See Upside From Current Levels
- HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended
- HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener Sept 2025: On Nameson (1982 HK), Building On The 13% Div Yield
- Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025
- Wakefit Innovations Pre-IPO: Steady Growth In Revenue Drivers, But Still Unprofitable
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Feels Slightly Toppish
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$22+bn a day this past 5-day week. Biggest week in a while. Net Flows not following gross flows. Feels toppish into GW.
- The recommended name last week was Alibaba (9988 HK) was up 2.2% on the week but only +0.7% from Monday close to Friday.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
Mixue (2097 HK): Time to Buy After Lemon Stockout
- The one-week lemon shortage did not impact the stock price.
- The stock price has plunged for three months to HK$395 from the peak HK$618.
- The revenue growth and the margin were healthy in 1H25.
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): Limited Upside as Effissimo Continues to Add
- Effissimo has steadily increased its Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) stake to 7.0 million shares or a 12.17% ownership ratio. The most recent purchases were at an average price of JPY2,616.08.
- Effissimo is taking contrasting approaches to low-ball MBOs. For Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Effissimo has launched a hostile offer, while for Pacific, Effissimo has chosen to agitate for better terms.
- The offer closes on 24 September. While a bump is the most likely scenario, the share price is 30% higher than the offer price, suggesting limited upside. Take profits.
Berkshire Hathaway Dumps All Its Stake in BYD – Impact on the Chery Auto IPO
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway completely exited its stake in BYD (1211 HK).
- We highlight four major reasons why Berkshire may have exited its entire position including valuations, tariffs, competition and lower profit margins, and greater risk prospects on economic stagnation in China.
- Berkshire selling all its stake in BYD is likely to have a slightly negative impact on the Chery Auto IPO. However, we maintain a Positive view of Chery Auto IPO.
The Pinkfong Company IPO Preview
- The Pinkfong company (creator of the Baby Shark brand) is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in 4Q 2025.
- The company plans to issue 2 million shares in this listing. The IPO price range is from 32,000 won to 38,000 won per share.
- At this price range, the expected expected market cap of the Pinkfong company ranges from 463 billion won (US$331 million) to 550 billion won ($393 million).
Kraft Heinz (Nasdaq: KHC) Spin-Off to Create Value; See Upside From Current Levels
- Kraft Heinz’s decision to split into Global Taste Elevation Co. and North American Grocery Co. is a strategic move intended to recalibrate the Company amid flattening growth.
- We value Kraft Heinz on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) basis. Global Taste Elevation is valued at 10x 2025E adjusted EBITDA, while North America Grocery is valued at 7.8x 2025E adjusted EBITDA.
- We expect the spin-off to unlock value for shareholders as Global Taste Elevation Co will get better multiple post separation.
HSI: Extended Run Faces Hurdles, Hedge Strategies Recommended
- After a 33.9% rally off the April lows HSI is starting to flash caution across a variety of metrics.
- Weak breadth and option exuberance at the single stock level are additional areas of concern.
- We outline the technical backdrop and recommend hedge strategies given the current level of implied vols.
HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener Sept 2025: On Nameson (1982 HK), Building On The 13% Div Yield
- With a 50% tariff imposed on India by the US, Vietnam’s factories have now become the busiest in the region. Our textile stocks have rallied slightly in response to this.
- Corroborating Vietnam’s strength was Dream International (1126 HK) Post Results Call: Moving Into A Great Peak Season, and now recently Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) and Stella International (1836 HK)
- Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) trades at 6x PE trailing with a 13% dividend yield. However, as we enter peak season with busy factories, we believe the situation could improve significantly.
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Momentum Shifts From Airlines to TCOM | September 2025
- Weak travel growth getting weaker, now years out from steepest part of recovery
- Most airlines & hotel chains have benefitted little from improved travel demand
- In recent months, appears momentum shifting back to travel intermediaries
Wakefit Innovations Pre-IPO: Steady Growth In Revenue Drivers, But Still Unprofitable
- Wakefit Innovations (1684049D IN) is looking to raise US$231m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Wakefit Innovations is a direct‑to‑consumer sleep and home‑solutions company, founded in 2016. It mainly sells mattresses, furniture and furnishings.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.
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