Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Pop Mart, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, GMA Network Inc, Victorias Milling Company, Inc, Wakefit Innovations, Comcast Corp Class A, Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group, Liberty Flour Mills, Metro Retail Stores Group and more

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK).       
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).

• Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.
• IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.
• Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.

• Among companies failing the listing criteria for Standard Market and Growth Market, many that cannot meet 1 billion yen tradable shares market capitalization criteria will migrate to Nagoya Stock Exchange.
• These companies failed to grow market capitalization. For these companies, the purpose of going public may have been to increase their visibility and credibility than to achieve growth after listing.
• Companies migrating from TSE to other markets face a significant hurdle in achieving growth and improving corporate governance to enhance management transparency, especially when institutional investor engagement is lacking.

• Dominant Market Position with Extensive Reach: GMA Network is a leading media company in the Philippines, boasting the largest broadcast footprint with 115 TV stations and 21 radio stations, reaching an estimated 67 million Filipinos. This extensive reach provides a significant competitive advantage in attracting advertisers and maintaining a large viewer base.
• Diversifying Revenue Streams Beyond Traditional Media: Recognizing the global shift in media consumption, GMA is actively diversifying its portfolio. This includes a strong push into digital media, where it ranks number one in Southeast Asia for video views, and strategic investments in technology startups through its venture capital arm, GMA Ventures.
• Challenging Financial Performance Amidst Industry Headwinds: Despite its market leadership, GMA has faced financial challenges, including a significant drop in net income over the past three years. This is attributed to high operating costs, unfavorable economic conditions, and a dip in television ratings, reflecting broader trends of declining viewership for traditional broadcasting.

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• Victorias Milling Company (VMC) is the largest integrated sugar producer in the Philippines, with a growing presence in diversified businesses including bioethanol, power generation, and food products.
• The company has demonstrated strong top-line and bottom-line growth over the past three years, supported by a robust balance sheet with low debt levels.
• Key risks revolve around the inherent volatility of the sugar industry, including commodity price fluctuations, adverse weather conditions, and evolving government regulations on imports and alternative sweeteners.

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• Wakefit Innovations (1684049D IN) raised US$144m in its India IPO.
• Wakefit Innovations is a direct‑to‑consumer sleep and home‑solutions company, founded in 2016.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

• Comcast (CMCSA) will spin off Versant Media Group (VSNT), a portfolio of cable networks and digital platforms, as an independent public company in early 2026.

• Comcast shareholders will receive 1 share of Versant (Class A or B) for every 25 shares of Comcast.

• When issue trading of Versant (ticker: VSNTV) will begin around December 15, 2025.

• Many companies enter the goat/sheep milk powder market due to higher gross margin than cow milk powder, but after years of development, this market has been in a shrinking trend.
• With a closed-loop capability in full internal control, production and supply of core ingredients of demineralized goat and sheep whey, Yeeper has supply chain advantage, thus with higher pricing power.
• Yeeper’ has shown the characteristics of “slowing revenue growth, and increasing pressure on net profit margin” due to intensified competition. Valuation could be lower than Yili but higher than China Feihe.

• Established Player in a Core Industry: Liberty Flour Mills (LFM) is a pioneer in the Philippine flour milling industry, with over 60 years of operating history. Its core business is the manufacturing and sale of bakery flour, a staple ingredient driven by the country’s growing population and demand for baked goods.
• Intense Competition and Margin Pressure: The domestic flour milling industry is highly competitive, with numerous players and significant production capacity. This intense rivalry, coupled with the volatility of global wheat prices—the primary raw material which the Philippines entirely imports—puts significant pressure on profitability and creates earnings uncertainty.
• Mixed Financial Profile with High Dividend Appeal: While the company exhibits strong dividend, growth, and resilience scores, its value metrics are less attractive. Financial performance has been volatile, with fluctuating revenue and net income. However, the company has a track record of paying dividends, offering a high yield which is a key attraction for investors.

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• Metro Retail Stores Group (MRSGI) is a significant player in the Philippine retail sector, with a strong presence in the Visayas region, operating supermarkets, department stores, and hypermarkets.
• The company exhibits a conflicting financial profile, characterized by strong 3-year revenue and net income growth but hampered by deteriorating margins, volatile cash flows, and a concerningly low resilience score.
• Future growth is contingent on a strategic store expansion plan, particularly focusing on smaller, community-based formats, and navigating an intensely competitive and rapidly evolving retail landscape driven by e-commerce and changing consumer habits.

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