In today’s briefing:
- ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS UH): Global Index Inclusion Following $2.8B Offering
- Tokai Carbon (5301.T) – Portfolio Shift Underway; Margin Recovery Key to Re-Rating
- Resonac Holdings (TSE: 4004) – Strategic Pivot Toward Semiconductor Materials
- JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation
- Provaris Energy (ASX:PV1) RaaS Interview Transcript 21 July 2025
- Bullish Copper: Comex-LME Spreads Off The Charts + Positive China TSF Data
- Regis Resources Ltd – The Monday Report – 21 July 2025
ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS UH): Global Index Inclusion Following $2.8B Offering
- Adnoc Gas (ADNOCGAS UH) had been omitted from both global indices due to insufficient float cap despite a market cap of over $60bn.
- On 21 February 2025, the company completed a Secondary Offering of $2.8bn, resulting in a free float increase from 5% to 9%.
- Adnoc Gas (ADNOCGAS UH) is expected to be added to Global All-World at the September 2025 review due to an increased float cap.
Tokai Carbon (5301.T) – Portfolio Shift Underway; Margin Recovery Key to Re-Rating
- Revenue peaked in FY23 but margins have declined due to cost pressures and impairments.
- The company is exiting underperforming assets and expanding in fine carbon, furnaces, and carbon black.
- At ¥1,010, it trades at ~19.6x FY25e P/E, in line with peers but below book at 0.8x P/B.
Resonac Holdings (TSE: 4004) – Strategic Pivot Toward Semiconductor Materials
- Past Performance: Revenues stable; margins improved due to semiconductor growth, despite weak performance in legacy chemicals and graphite electrodes.
- Strategy & Shutdown: Shutting 30% electrode capacity; refocusing on high-margin semiconductor, SiC, and packaging materials with ¥330 bn capex planned by FY25.
- Valuation: Trades at 8x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/E FY25E; re-rating possible with higher margins and semiconductor mix.
JSW Steel (NSE: JSWSTEEL) – Strong Q1 Beat, Confident FY26 Guidance, Premium Valuation
- Recent Results: Q1 EBITDA surged 38% YoY to ₹7,576 Cr, driven by volume ramp-up, improved product mix, and lower coking coal costs.
- FY26 Guidance: Company maintains production at 30.5 mt and sales at 29.2 mt, reflecting confidence in its ramp-up and downstream expansion roadmap.
- Valuation & Growth: Trading at ~18× FY27E P/E and ~7× EV/EBITDA—above global peers—justified by projected 20% EBITDA and 23% EPS growth into FY27.
Provaris Energy (ASX:PV1) RaaS Interview Transcript 21 July 2025
- RaaS Research’s Finola Burke and Andrew Williams interview Provaris Energy Managing Director/CEO Martin Carolan on the company’s strategy, its partnerships with Yinson and K Line and path to a FID.
Bullish Copper: Comex-LME Spreads Off The Charts + Positive China TSF Data
- In our previous insight, Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton, we highlighted upside risk to the LME price.
- Comex-LME spreads remain elevated at $ 2,500/ton levels, reflecting the impact of tariffs that haven’t yet been imposed, amid ongoing supply disruptions. Inventories, though, have stopped depleting on the LME.
- We remain bullish on copper in the countdown to August 1st, where it is likely that tariffs of 50% are imposed on copper.
Regis Resources Ltd – The Monday Report – 21 July 2025
- Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead
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